If the primaries in the Seymites don't happen, it's due to the fact that for any reason the organization leaders don't want them. That's what you gotta tell yourself.
The criterion of political success in elections
Grzegorz Schetyna and Katarzyna Lubnauer announced any time ago joint letters of PO and .N in the election to the provincial Sejm. Work continues. The leaders of both parties rightly defined the results of these elections as a clear and understandable sign of triumph or defeat in clashing with the Law and Justice in local elections. In seymiki, the arrangement is purely organization – in communes and powiats, the organization lists have incomparably little meaning and the division is little clear. This, of course, will settle the PiS plebiscite against the united opposition. What are the chances, however, of the PO and N coalition, and is it not an announcement of a guaranteed defeat?
Surveys, D’Hondt and Opportunities
It is worth recalling the consequence of the 2015 elections and realizing that with less seats and smaller constituency, D’Hondt's method is truly hard to consider proportional – under the effectively raised electoral threshold there will be plenty of votes lost to the strongest. It is worth looking at the decline in opposition ratings, which is inactive ongoing. What can be the consequence of the “united opposition” whose strength of current investigation is estimated to be around 20%? With a separate PSL launch guaranteed today, a very likely separate SLD launch, not to mention Together, IP and others. If you measure the number of anti-writing "democrats" to 45-55% of voters, it turns out that most of them do not have their own representation in these elections. This alone deprives the illusion of results. But in addition, the crack of voices would all presume that it would be miraculous if the PiS did not gain the advantage in a set of provincial Seyms.
And that is the position in the fall election 2018. And a forecast for the upcoming electoral marathon. Kaczyński will not gotta fake anything – full power will be given to him at our request. We will give this power to even specified a loser as him – this is the strength of our political and intellectual impotence, that we ourselves are building a image of the sinister genius of political strategy, while we are actually dealing with a mindless demon who owes everything solely to our stupidity.
The primary saves the world’s situation
I do not want to repeat the apparent advantages of the primaries in this situation. They mean the anticipation of expanding the ellipse of curious voters from 20% of declared and disciplined PO and N voters to about 50% of "democrats" whose various organisations would be able to join specified a defined game, resulting in a common list against the Law and Justice. The D’Hondt method would work in favour of this possibly strongest list – a common list for the ellipse of "democrats" much wider than the melting electorate PO and .N. In addition, the effect is measured wherever the primaries are held – an increase in election attendance by about 10%, in addition to being unsymmetrical, due to the fact that the following “on our side”. Rebuilding the authority and credibility of those who submit to an election test – the effect besides measured at the primary. We have the experience we trust on. The primaries gain the power of the populists.
Verdict of organization leaders
However, the primaries are – according to politicians – an unreal dream. They can't be made. There's no frame, no structures, no money. We have repeatedly responded to these expected inabilitys with concrete solutions to the proposal, but the fact is that while the primaries will surely be carried out in any number of municipalities and districts by our own efforts against the position of organization headquarters, it is not possible to organize them without parties in provincial councils. In the decisive clash of the opposition organization with the PiS it is impossible to turn on without the party.
PO and .N, together with all civilian movements – including us, of course – announce at the same time a civic election control, which means the presence of observers and men of trust in each or most election committees.
But if you take these announcements seriously, then... How can we make a letter to the Sejm, run and control elections at this level without all the people and resources needed to organize the primaries? What precisely is the unrealistic dream, then, of carrying out primaries by force of curious committees and organization structures, or of starting these structures in average elections and actually controlling elections? What precisely is needed in the primaries, which will not be needed for elections anyway? And all this in the primaries could be prepared and checked.
The Powerful Will of Disaster
There is no magic – the verdict on the inability of primaries is simply a declaration of the will of organization leaders, not a description of any nonsubjective inability. If the primaries in the Seymites don't happen, it's due to the fact that for any reason the organization leaders don't want them. That's what you gotta tell yourself. They do not want them so much that they are willing to accept more than the apparent possible of election defeat. Unfortunately, it will be our defeat. Politicians have the function of professional opponents guaranteed for life, I fear.
