If Trump doesn't end the war with Iran soon, he could sink himself and Republicans

Donald Trump is facing a serious political problem today. If the conflict with Iran continues, it may begin to lose support for its own political background, and this in turn may negatively affect Republican results in the upcoming half-election to Congress.

MEGA movement – Trump's most loyal political environment – was built around his electoral slogan “Make America large Again”. 1 of the key elements of this communicative was the criticism of the United States' multi-annual military interventions in the world, specified as the war in Afghanistan or the war in Iraq. Many Trump voters supported him due to the fact that he promised to end costly and long - word conflicts.

Meanwhile, the American attack on Iran divided Trump supporters. And that could have real political consequences. Americans mostly don't want another long war.

If the conflict continues, the loyalty of the MAGA environment can be seriously shaken.

Falling support

There are already signs of Donald Trump's decline in popularity. Latest poll YouGov/The Economist points out that only 38% of the respondents rated his presidency positively, while 59% expressed disapproval. This is the lowest level of support Trump has recorded since November 2017.

However, this decline is not due solely to the conflict with Iran. The downward trend began shortly after he took over the presidency.

Many voters feel disappointed. Trump promised to end the wars, but did not end the war in Ukraine, and further active the United States in a fresh conflict in the mediate East. There are besides unfulfilled economical promises – especially those concerning the restoration of jobs and the improvement of the economical situation of Americans.

Many citizens are disappointed by the state of their portfolios: price levels, the labour marketplace situation and overall economical security. The customs policy that was expected to benefit America did not bring the expected “manna from heaven”, and many Americans began to announcement that it was they that mostly borne its costs.

Americans don't want a long war.

American society is tired of long-term conflicts. If the war drags on, its costs – both financial and human – will increase. Losses among American soldiers and rising military spending can further weaken the President's support.

And in the context of the upcoming half-elections to Congress, the stakes are huge.

Trump is frightened to death. impeachment.

He himself openly admitted in talks with Republican congressmen that Republicans had to win these elections. A simple majority in the home of Representatives is adequate to begin the impeachment procedure. Thus, the president fears not only political failure, but besides another effort to remove him from office.

Additional policy problems

New information on Jeffrey Epstein's case is besides coming to a tense political situation. Trump tries to attribute work to the Democrats, but many voters may ask a simple question: Trump, not Clinton is president today. And that's why the case inactive raises so much doubt. He's got so many blacks, Trump's court settlements...

Elections on the horizon

The United States faces key primaries and elections to Congress. A long-term conflict can make space for candidates with an anti-war program – besides inside the Republican Party.

If the war turns out to be very unpopular, a politician may appear ready to openly appear with an anti-war – or possibly even anti-Trumpian – agenda. specified a decision would not gotta harm his career. On the contrary, it could become the foundation for building positions before the next presidential election, in which Trump will no longer be able to compete.

Marco Rubio undoubtedly has presidential ambitions. However, for the time being, he has a very strong relation with Trump and his policies. Apparently, he hopes to last until the end of his word in the shadow, and then effort to build his own position in the party.

A repeat of Bush's mistake?

The decision to hit Iran may match the political mistake George W. Bush made in Iraq. Iran's way to developing weapons of mass demolition was inactive long, and the argument for immediate intervention did not convince many Americans.

The prospects for changing the government in Tehran are besides limited.

In this situation, the conflict with Iran puts Donald Trump in a very hard position – both towards the public and inside his own party.

The loyalty of the MAGA environment can be shaken. And if falling support persists until the legislature elections, it could seriously weaken the Republican position.

The story of Trump's political “inundation” can then fall very quickly.