A spy thriller, an intelligence war and an ice age in relations with Ukraine, a pro-Russian propaganda run in full swing and a militant speech by the Minister of Defense, and yet – a questionable investigation into the most crucial national opponent of the Orban system; in Hungary there have been restless days. And it's not just the headlines. These are historical moments that can decide whether the country can return to freedom and democracy, or whether Prime Minister Viktor Orban will lead towards a Russian-style dictatorship.
What happened? On Friday (09.05.2025), the Ukrainian secret service of the SBU reported that 2 Ukrainian citizens were arrested in the bordering Podkarpackie region of Hungary to spy on Hungary. SBU showed video recordings and shared many details, including intercepted telephone calls and evidence from 1 of the detainees who was about to plead guilty.
Arrested persons are suspected of collecting peculiar information for Hungarian services on military units in the region of Zakarpacia, including location, equipment and movements. They were besides tasked to find out whether the region could buy weapons on the black market, how the local population would behave in the case of the Hungarian invasion, and where the weaknesses of ground and air defence are located.
Relations at the bottom
This is the first case in past erstwhile Ukraine arrested persons suspected of spying on behalf of Hungary. This is at a time erstwhile Ukrainian-Hungarian relations have been in the deepest crisis in 3 and a half decades. The Hungarian government responded within hours. On Friday, abroad Minister Peter Szijjarto ordered the expulsion of 2 Ukrainian diplomats for alleged engagement in espionage; Ukraine then besides expelled 2 Hungarian diplomats.
Peter Szijjarto said in a video made available on Facebook that Hungary will not tolerate continued slander by Ukraine, they want peace and they will not be drawn into war. He did not give any details of the alleged spying activities of expelled diplomats.
In a akin tone, the Prime Minister of Hungary Orban spoke, besides via Facebook. According to him, Hungarians are presently making decisions on Ukraine's EU membership. "Neither Brussels nor Kiev likes it, so they initiate actions to slander Hungary," he accused. The Prime Minister thus referred to the vote initiated by his government on Ukraine's accession to the European Union, which in fact is simply a racist propaganda run against the Ukrainians.
"On the Way to War"
For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, there has been this level of confrontation between Kiev and the NATO state. The Ukrainian-Hungarian spy and intelligence scandal is further exacerbated by the fact that in Hungary there has late been an audio recording of a confidential speech, which was given by Hungarian defence minister Kristof Shalay-Bobrovniczky in April 2023. It was published by Peter Magyar, leader of the TISZA opposition organization and now chief rival Orban in the parliamentary election, planned for the spring of 2026.
Kristof Shalay-Bobrovniczky says there that Hungary breaks off with "peaceful mentality" and goes to "phase zero on the way to war". The video doesn't uncover the war. Shalay-Bobrovniczky himself did not deny the content of the speech, but said that he simply wanted to express in general that Hungary must be well prepared to keep peace in the face of current crises. However, the wording contained in the speech contrasts sharply with Orban's continued peace rhetoric and his communicative that Hungary is the only EU country that wants peace in Europe.
Orban calls Ukraine "No Man's Land"
Such a "war speech" in the hot context of the spy scandal fuels speculation that an invasion of Hungary in Zakarpata cannot be ruled out, even if it is presently highly unlikely. Orban's strategy seems to take into account possible border changes and the recovery of parts of Zacarpacia that erstwhile belonged to Hungary.
It is now alternatively impossible for Hungary to take military action against Ukraine. However, Orban repeatedly referred to the neighbouring country as "no one's land" or "territory called Ukraine", suggesting that its statehood was uncertain.
Hungarian accusations that Ukraine does not respect the rights of the Hungarian number go far beyond legitimate criticism, especially since late 2023. Ukraine has improved the situation regarding number language rights.
The pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian position of Orban seems all the more dangerous as Russia presented the thought of transferring parts of Ukraine's territory to Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania in the event of triumph over Ukraine. Orban has never rejected specified scenarios and, unlike erstwhile years, has late stopped claiming that Hungary is not seeking a revision of borders.
"Proukrian" erstwhile Chief of General Staff
Speculations besides fuel the revealed circumstances of the callback of erstwhile Chief of Staff of the Hungarian Army Romulus Rushin-Shendi in late 2022. Then his resignation passed almost without echo. However, since he first appeared as talker of the fresh TISZA opposition organization in February 2025, a government run of embezzlement charges and allegedly pro-Ukrainian stance has been moving against him.
On Friday, Orban himself indirectly accused the erstwhile chief of staff of treason, claiming that Rushin-Szendi represented the pro-Ukrainian position alternatively of pro-Hungarian, so he had to resign him. Orban did not specify what "proukrian" means. The Ministry of Defence indicated that Rushin-Szendi erstwhile ended the speech with Ukrainian greeting "Slava U Krajini!" (Glory of Ukraine!).
From "foreign" to "funded by Ukraine"
The events of the last fewer days affect a fight by the government of Orban against the opposition organization TISZA. Her leader Peter Magyar is presently the most popular Hungarian politician, and TISZA is far ahead of Fidesz Orban in the polls. so Magyar and his organization are accused of "sitting in the pocket" of Kiev and representing Ukrainian interests.
Previously, it was claimed that the critics of the Orban government were funded by American stock billionaire George Soros or simply "foreign" sources. Currently, the Hungarian government identifies independent Hungarian journalists as "financed by Ukraine" or working for Ukrainian peculiar services.
However, in the case of Peter Magyar, this communicative has failed so far. It has not yet led to a noticeable decline in his popularity or support for his party. Therefore, the Hungarian government appears to take action against Magyar in a different way – on a Russian basis, and in peculiar as the criminal proceedings of Russian dissident Alexey Navalny were gradually destroyed. Peter Magyar is accused of utilizing confidential information in stock trading. There's no evidence so far. However, the Hungarian National Bank (MNB) is investigating the case and the Hungarian prosecution is investigating Magyar. The case went to the front pages of newspapers as early as mid-February. Now there's expected to be evidence. In any event, the Hungarian state media are already reporting on the punishment that might endanger Magyar: up to 5 years in prison.
