How large is the Polish economy? Version 2.0 (final)

What was Poland's GDP if it did not subtract indirect consumption?

In the authoritative accounts of ESA 2010 - GDP=Global production (Output) minus Indirect consumption of net taxes on products.

If “we do not subtract indirect consumption”, it is the Output + taxes itself – in practice this concept is very akin to the Anglo-Saxon Gross Output (GO).

How much is that today?

What is it present (current prices, million PLN)? Global production of 2024 is 7 356 414,000, taxes are 404 122,000,000, or 7 760 536,000. (Tables 1 to 2 "Product Account" and "Global Production" of the GUS Quarterly Accounts of GDP 2020-2024). Data for 2024 are preliminary, announced in April 2025. Output + taxes (we do not subtract IC) is 213% of GDP.

This means that on average 53 gr from each gold production goes to intermediate consumption and 47 gr creates added value.

In global dollars (PPP):

The purchasing power base 2024 (World Bank): 1 Int $ ≤ PLN 2.10.

PLN 7 760 billion ÷ 2.10 billion Int $ 3.7 billion.

What does this indicator tell us?

It is more "inflated" than GDP due to the fact that it counts the full turnover between companies (e.g. steel → parts → car).

• It shows better the size of the production and logistics sector – that's why the OECD uses it in the analysis of supply shocks.
• Unable to compare debt or surviving standards
• Not suitable for comparison of debt or surviving standards (includes multiple counting of the same intermediates).
• It is more than GDP due to the fact that it counts the full turnover between companies (e.g. steel → parts → car).

If the definition of GDP does not subtract indirect consumption, the Polish economy in 2024 weighs about PLN 7.8 trillion ($3.7 trillion) – more than twice as much as the classical gross home product.

How much more would this increase if it added a grey region and unpaid work?

• Substrate from erstwhile analysis – Global production + taxes (without subtracting indirect consumption)
• number part of the grey region that the CSO doesn't emulate. The planet Bank, EY & IMF show that the full grey area is around 17% of GDP; the CSO already imputes ~11% → "missing" ~6 % of GDP = 0.06 × 3 640 ÷ 220; in global production it besides needs to be added the missing indirect consumption - +80 billion.
• Add the value of unpaid work in households. Eurostat time-use survey 2020 gives an equivalent value of 26% of GDP for PL; 0.26 × 3 640 ~ 950 billion PLN (here added value of output – marginal indirect consumption).
• 4. full (gross + non-observed + homework)

In global dollars (PPP):
PPP 2024 = 2,10 PLN ⇢ ≈ 4,3 trillion Int $

Why + 300 billion alternatively than the full 17% of GDP for the grey economy?

• The CSO already emulates most of the hidden legal activity (work “on hand”) and any illegal activity (cigarettes, alcohol, prostitution).
• The external models (Schneider, Medina) give ~17% of GDP combined; in the Polish ESA tables we see that about 11% of GDP has been glued to the authoritative GDP. Thus, ~6% of GDP → + PLN 220 billion of added value + proportionally PLN 80 billion of indirect consumption is missing.

Why ~26% of GDP for unpaid work?

• EU-27 average from Eurostat TUS2019 = 23 % of GDP.
• Poland has an average number of hours of free care and cooking (approx. 3 h 40 min per day/person) – converted by the auxiliary rate "average wage of home services" represents 0.25–0.27 GDP.
• In global production there is almost no intermediate consumption (meal, current included in consumption) – so we mainly add added value.
• How to read the number of 9 trillion PLN (≈ 4.3 trillion Int $)?

How to read the number of 9 trillion PLN (≈ 4.3 trillion Int $)?

• This is over 2.5 times the average GDP (PLN 3.64 trillion) and about 410% of GDP in global dollars.
• It is inactive not net (asset-liability) – alternatively "total marketplace output + non-market output", i.e. the absolute advanced limit of "economic size" if each hr of work and each intermediate mentioned.
• Uncomfortable to taxation policy: public debt would fall to 24%, but... no 1 in the planet pays taxes on home bread baking.