How Donald Trump can pull a 3rd presidential word for himself. Yeah, it's possible

Around the world, erstwhile rulers consolidate power through the cult of personality, they do not give it willingly, even in the face of constitutional restrictions. And Trump, of course, already has attempts on his evidence to stay in office outside of his legal term.

“Anyone who claims that the 22nd amendment will halt Trump from trying to gain a 3rd word lives on a planet another than the 1 on which I live,” says Ian Bassin, who was Deputy Head of the White home Legal Department for president Barack Obama, and is now the executive manager of the non-profit group defend Democracy.

If Trump decided to keep power after 2028, there are at least 4 paths he could try:

• He could make a decision to straight repeal the 22nd amendment.
• He could exploit a slight gap in the amendment that would let him to run for Vice president and then immediately return to the office of President.
• He could run for president again, assuming the gentle ultimate Court won't halt him.
• Or he could simply refuse to leave — and put an end to the democratic experimentation in America.

Each of these roads would face serious political, legal and applicable obstacles. But the possible of Trump's 3rd word should not be rejected by waving his hand. After all, Trump himself surely does not reject this perspective. He's been talking about it openly for years.

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Donald Trump

In August 2020, he told his supporters: "We will win 4 more years. And then we'll go for another 4 years.

In May 2024 he reconsidered the 3rd presidency. On 13 November 2024, a week after winning his second term, he told the Republicans in the home of Representatives: “I fishy I will not run again unless you say, “He is so good that we gotta come up with something else”.

And last weekend he said, “It will be the top honor of my life to service not once, but twice — or three, or 4 times...

Then he rapidly added, “No, I will service twice.

Maybe Trump's just a large joke. possibly it's the media. But the fact that he keeps talking about it shows that he has it in mind. The time has come to take this position virtually — and seriously.

Why Trump can do that

There are respective threshold reservations to this thought experimentation and they are not constitutional but physical and psychological: will Trump, who will be 82 at the end of his second term, be healthy and fit adequate to service in his 3rd term? And if he did, would he want to?

On 20 January 2029 he could simply quit on the Mar-a-Lago golf course, defeating all his enemies and establishing his position as a planet historical figure. Maybe. However, if Trump is able to proceed to hold office, he may have strong motivation to effort to hold presidential powers and privileges.

Consider the key reason why he ran in 2024: wanting to avoid their criminal cases. That strategy worked. 2 national cases against him had to be closed after his triumph due to the position of the Justice Department that the incumbent president could not be prosecuted. His choice in addition He's sentenced to failure, and it's already a wobbly case against him in Georgia.. And in the fresh York secret money case, The only of the 4 that got to trial and ended in convictionTrump's triumph ensured his escape with the conviction of "unconditional dismissal" — even little than a proverbial slap.

Nevertheless, Trump may not be completely free from all his legal problems at the end of his second term. erstwhile peculiar Prosecutor Jack Smith He reluctantly dismissed his national charges against Trump last month, explicitly stated that the Department of Justice could in the future resume the case and press charges against Trump after he left office. If the politician has a good chance of winning in 2028, Trump may be afraid that these charges will return.

And who knows what Trump can do in the next 4 years, what can origin fresh criminal responsibility? Last year's ultimate Court decision on immunity It would be an obstacle to charging him with everything he does during the presidency, but it would not be an insurmountable obstacle. If there are serious calls for Trump to be prosecuted again after his second term, it is not hard to imagine that he will come to the conclusion that the best way to halt these efforts is simply to stay President.

In addition to utilizing the office as a legal force field Trump can be driven by another, more basic motive: the desire for power. This is raison d’etre for autocratic leaders around the world, especially those who destruct democratic institutions and engage in quasi-mesianistic rhetoric.

— Presidents usually like their work and there have been many attempts to extend their term,” says Mila Versteeg, prof. of law at Virginia State University. Versteeg is co-author of the 2020 study, which analysed 234 heads of state in 106 countries in the 21st century. She discovered that 1 3rd of them tried to circumvent the legally imposed word limits. Many of them were successful — usually not by direct non-compliance, but alternatively by exploiting gaps and weaknesses in constitutional systems or convincing the gentle courts to bless their consolidation of power.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan did it in Turkey. Daniel Ortega did it in Nicaragua. Vladimir Putin did it in Russia. The list is long and includes leaders Trump admires.

— In the countries where this occurred, the regulation of law is much weaker than in the United States, says Versteeg. “But we should not reject it as impossible or unimaginable. This has happened all over the world.

How would Trump do that?

Assuming Trump wanted to do this, could he succeed?

At first glance, the 22nd amendment seems to be an absolute barrier. It was ratified in 1951 in consequence to 4 terms of Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Before Roosevelt, no president always applied for re-election after serving 2 terms — the norm dating back to the days of George Washington.

What is crucial for Trump, the amendment is not limited to just 2 terms of office immediately following 1 another. Practically all constitutionalist agrees that the word limit of 2 terms of office applies to any 2 word of office of 1 person, even if these are not consecutive terms.

But it's not over. The principles of the Constitution are as permanent as the institutions that defend them. And Trump can violate them and even effort to completely argue them, both by legal and non-legal means. Already trying to recast regulation 14 of the Amendment on Citizenship since birth. Is there any reason to believe that he wouldn't effort something like that with the 22nd Amendment on word limits?

Here's 4 things he could try.

OPTION 1. Amend the Constitution

The most apparent way for Trump would be to convince Americans to waive the 2 word limit in the 22nd Amendment. The repeal of the amendment is entirely legal: we did it before, erstwhile We have repealed the ban on the sale of alcohol contained in the 18th Amendment.

However, a formal repeal would require immense public support, which is improbable in today's polarised country. 2 thirds of both chambers of legislature would gotta propose a fresh amendment or 2 thirds of states would gotta convene a constitutional convention to propose it. 3 quarters of the states would then gotta ratify the proposed amendment. Even if Trump remains popular with Republicans, it's hard to imagine getting the most he needs.

Still, any conservatives want to try.

Republican Congressman Andy Ogles has already taken this substance up by proposing an amendment to the Constitution that would let Trump to apply for a 3rd term, and the conservative magazine "The American Conservative" began to lay the foundation for this thought even before Trump won the election in ub.r. In March, the letter published an article that the author argued that if Trump had managed to safe a second term, the 22nd amendment should be repealed to let him to apply for a third.

"If by 2028 voters consider Trump to have done a bad job, they may have chosen another candidate; but if they think he has fulfilled his promises, why should they be deprived of freedom to choose him again?" wrote Peter Tonguette, editor-in-chief of the magazine.

Some Democrats don't want to take any chances. Congressman Dan Goldman proposed in autumn that legislature adopt a resolution repeating that the 22nd amendment applies to the word of office not consecutively.

Several democratic states have been trying to revoke their long-standing requests for a constitutional convention. They fear that Republicans could usage these proposals — which in any cases were made decades ago — to conven a convention and propose a multitude of unpredictable amendments to the Constitution. 1 of Trump's prominent allies in Congress, president of the budget committee Jodey Arrington believes that the required threshold — conclusions from two-thirds of the states — has already been reached to call specified a convention.

Trump himself did not explicitly advocate an amendment. But on Monday, he released on social media a post by Texas deputy politician Dan Patrick praising Trump's first week of office. "People are already talking about changing the 22nd amendment to service a 3rd term," Patrick wrote. “If this pace and success persists for 4 years, and there is no reason for it not to happen, most Americans will truly not want it to go.”

OPTION 2. Circumvention of the Constitution

If a formal change to the 2 word limits is not an option, another option is to find a gap. As it turns out, the 22nd amendment to the Constitution contains a gap. A large one.

The text forbids anyone to be "chosen" for a 3rd presidential term. It does not say anything about the fact that a individual cannot become president for a 3rd word in any another legal way — for example, by choosing to be vice president and then re-introducing the presidency as a consequence of death, resignation or removal of a individual at the top of power.

So imagine that at the end of Trump’s second term, any another individual — let’s call her J. The President — wins Republican presidential nomination in 2028. Vance elects Trump as his presidential candidate — and promises that if he wins, he will resign on the first day and hand over the presidency to Trump.

The campaign's slogan is thus: "Promote Vance to make Trump president again".

It may seem like a trick. Or it could be seen as the most clever arrangement Trump has always made. Either way, if it is 2028, and Trump holds power in the Republican organization he had in 2016, 2020 and 2024, it is not hard to imagine that this thought will gain popularity. And if Vance didn't agree to cooperate, Trump could find individual else to do it.

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J. D. Vance and Donald Trump

This Gambit would, of course, entail any hazard to Trump. He would gotta trust Vance or his elected deputy to keep his promise to leave office immediately and let Trump to take office again. Theoretically, this individual could resign after the election and hold the presidency. However, if the presidential candidate clearly promised that Trump would sit in the Oval Office, the political force to keep the agreement (and respect the will of voters) would be enormous. And if Vance or any another politician wants to have a future in the GOP and a real chance for the White home in the future, maintaining Trump's support would be the most important.

Trump, who delights in public expressions of loyalty from his subordinates, may find the full arrangement tempting. “It would not be amazing if the president was one more time curious in the presidency that he would effort to go that way,” says Bruce Peabody, prof. of Law at Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Peabody announced this anticipation long before Trump appeared on the political stage. In a 1999 article (and in its continuation of 2016) he explored the possible of the twice elected president to occupy another advanced government positions that could let him to become president again. Peabody concluded that the script described above is not only consistent with the constitution but besides politically probable.

You can even call him Putin-Miedvedev script. erstwhile the word limits prevented Putin from continuing to regulation Russia in 2008, he served as the “Prime Minister” under president Dmitri Medvedev for a time. Of course, Putin continued to pull strings and yet formally returned to power.

In the United States, another part of the constitution is likely to complicate this gap. The 12th Amendment, ratified in 1804, states that no 1 "constitutionally ineligible for the office of president can qualify as Vice President". Thus, if Trump had been disqualified from his 3rd presidential word under the 22nd amendment, he would not have been eligible for the Vice President's position under the 12th amendment — and in that case the gap would not have worked.

But that is the point: the 22nd amendment does not say that Trump is not eligible to service as president for a 3rd term. He only says that he is not entitled to apply for a 3rd word (more specifically, to be elected for a 3rd term). Thus, regulation 12 of the eligibility amendment does not appear to prevent Trump from utilizing the legal gap.

— You can argue that it is rather clear that the twice elected president is inactive eligible, says Peabody. “You can besides argue that this is unclear. But I do not think that the argument is convincing that it does not qualify for office.”

OPTION 3. Ignore the Constitution

If the first 2 options are besides hard or besides complicated, Trump can effort something even more courageous and much more in his style. He could just apply for a 3rd word and see if anyone could halt him.

The question is who would do it and how is amazingly difficult. Would the Republican National Committee — the leadership of the Republican organization — block him from applying for organization nomination for 2028? surely not if he continues to dominate the party. Would the states refuse to put him on their ballots? any surely do, but that would have caused a court dispute. This issue would then be brought to the ultimate Court — a court that is already rather favorably favored by Trump’s interests, and in 4 years it may be filled with even more than now the number of persons appointed by Trump.

But would the ultimate Court truly approve a gross violation of the 22nd amendment? Now it sounds incredible, even to this very conservative court. However, it is crucial to take into account the context in which specified a case would be considered. This would be the mediate of the 2028 election season. Trump would be on the run trail, acting like a candidate, insisting that he must run again for the good of the country. The organization would proudly announce him as its candidate.

Imagine that half the Americans inactive unconditionally support him. It is not essential to be a cynic to see that in specified a climate the designation of Trump as ineligible to run would require large political courage from judges. “ All you request in this script is simply a court that wants to aid you,” Versteeg says, adding that she believes it is unlikely, although it is not impossible for the present court to stand behind Trump.

Bassin of defend Democracy is more clear: — Will the court tell the Republican organization that he cannot exposure his candidate? I don't think so.

In fact, the country and the court have already experienced akin complications.

Many lawyers believe Trump was no longer constitutionally entitled to run in 2024, as the 14th amendment forbids the national office of a individual who had previously participated in the rebellion against legitimate power. But erstwhile Colorado tried to enforce this recipe, citing for Trump's behaviour on 6 January 2021., and removed Trump from the ballot card, the ultimate Court rapidly stepped in. The court ruled, That only Congress, not states, can enforce this amendment — although the 14th amendment itself does not contain specified a restriction.

This ruling was widely seen as at least partially based on polls: regardless of legal arguments, judges simply never intended to let individual states to expel a leading Republican candidate from their ballot cards. The same logic could apply if Trump tried to run again in 2028.

It could be said that the language of the 22nd amendment ("Nobody can be elected" as president "more than twice") is much clearer than the complicated language of the 14th amendment concerning the insurrection. But court disputes have the ability to confuse even the most crystal clear language, and Trump's lawyers will have many opportunities to show that the limit of the 2 word seems ambiguous.

Perhaps they will find any first argument why the 2 word limit does not mean what it means. possibly they will claim that the amendment concerns only successive terms of office. Trump's ally, Steve Bannon, has already begun making that argument.

Perhaps they will find any reason why the ratification of the amendment was procedurally inappropriate. Versteeg points out that specified procedural arguments are a common maneuver aimed at weakening constitutional terms of office abroad.

Or possibly they will argue that any another more fundamental provision of the Constitution replaces the word limit of the 22nd amendment. For example, possibly Trump has the right to apply for the office of President, or possibly voters have the right to vote for the preferred candidate, regardless of what the 22nd amendment says.

None of these arguments are legally strong. Practically all constitutionalists would reject them today. But simply presenting these arguments in court and in the public sphere, Trump's lawyers can make this issue seem controversial. As lawyer Jack Balkin pointed out, this process of standardisation can transform bizarre constitutional claims into a formal doctrine adopted by the ultimate Court.

OPTION 4. Relieve the Constitution

There's another way Trump could effort to hold power. The second would not require a revision of the Constitution. It would not require an agreement with a candidate who would be willing to hand over the presidency to Trump. This would not even require Trump to reapply for office.

He could simply refuse to leave office.

It is hard to foretell what it would look like (although Trump's attempts to keep power after the 2020 election can supply any guidance). 1 of the apparent moves in the autocrat manual is to cancel the elections by announcing a state of emergency in the country. Of course, the president has no legal power to cancel or postpone the election, but that does not mean Trump would not effort it anyway — possibly utilizing a natural disaster or even starting a war. Alternatively, Trump might have allowed the election to be held in 2028 with another candidates, but he would have announced that the consequence had been falsified and he would have chosen to stay in power.

It is not an exaggeration to say that Trump strengthened his anti-democratic tendencies in the first days of his fresh word of office. He began rapidly consolidating power throughout the government, including implementing severe loyalty tests, removing independent national supervisory authorities and attempting to take power in Congress. He besides absolved political force on his behalf, pardoning the 6 January rioters, including members of the far-right Oath Keepers and arrogant Boys organizations.

The last time Trump tried to hold on as president, used lies about election fraud to undermine the 2020 election results., and then encouraged his supporters to “crazy” in Washington on the day his defeat was confirmed. In 4 years, could he prosecute an even more insolent and illegal takeover? It's an different thing to consider. Authoritarian researchers point out that erstwhile standards specified as word limits die, the culprit is usually not a single and apparent coup. Erosion is alternatively slow, frequently with the approval of people and institutions within the constitutional system.

On 20 January 2021, after his countless efforts to overthrow Joe Biden's triumph failed, Trump left office. Power was delegated and democratic national institutions survived. If he threatens to transfer power again, there is no warrant that American democracy will last again.

But 1 thing is certain: the words of the 22nd amendments are not enough.