United States trade war with the remainder of the world, started by Donald Trump, was gradually reduced to traditional confrontation with China itselfChinese exports to the United States were placed on 145% work from 14 April and American exports to China on 125%. It is hard not to anticipate that trade between the 2 countries will fall by at least 30-40 percent in the next fewer months, which will mean a drop in Chinese shipments to the United States alone by 140-200 billion dollars per year.
At the same time, the list of countries subject to the increased duties does not cover Russia either due to the "no trade with it" (which is not true) or due to the negotiations that Washington and Moscow are conducting on the "problem" of Ukraine. In any case, nothing formally prohibits American companies from buying anything from Russia — but those sanctioned by oil, petroleum products, coal and gas, as well as fish and seafood, alcohol and diamonds. And here comes the tempting possible of a "deep modernisation" of the Russian creative import substitution system.
‘Made in Russia’
As many experts admit, this has not yet produced crucial results, as is clearly seen in the aviation industry, where "fully domestic" aircraft have not started yet; in the automotive industry, where Chinese cars in Moscow have bolted rated plates and are presented as Russian; or yet in electronics, where long-known Chinese products are frequently sold as home innovations.
Imagine, however, that the process of fictitious location of production can be reconsidered, given the revised US customs policy.
In this case, dozens of high-tech companies — furniture, toys, clothing and consumer electronics — can appear in Russian cities in a fewer weeks and months. Existing only on paper, these companies will launch mass production of various "imported" goods, which disagree from Chinese consumer goods about as much as Moscow 3 differs from JAC JS4.
With the “Made in Russia” certificate, they can be offered to American retailers and, to be stressed, at highly attractive prices in the customs war: more than twice as inexpensive as with fresh duties. If problems arise with the organisation of accounts along the way, the main seller of specified products may be a company registered for this intent in any country of the Eurasian Union.
Repeat, U.S. law finds nothing illegal in buying non-sanctioned Russian production goods, and duties on specified goods are either not imposed or are only 10% for re-export by post-Soviet countries. And if anyone doubts that during the years of the war Russia has made exceptional achievements in the improvement of its own independent industry, let him read the statements of the highest officials who are very afraid that if relations with the West improve, these successes may be in vain.
"Alternative globalisation"
The proposed strategy looks fantastic — primarily due to the fact that the zero customs tariff for Russian products sent to the US will not last forever: it will most likely be revised as shortly as Donald Trump will see that Vladimir Putin just plays with him in the negotiationsNot going to halt the war. But even if it does, The anticipation of circumventing tariff restrictions should not be underestimated by formally withdrawing Chinese manufacture from Beijing-friendly jurisdictions.
Of course, if Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan abruptly increase the supply of toys, fittings and furniture to America within 1 year, and the caps with the inscription ‘MAGA’ and the American flags prove not to be produced in China, and in Armenia, this may rise suspicions — but did the multiple increase in mobile phone, office or medical imports to the Eurasian Union associate States from 2022 to 2023 origin any restrictions on trade with them by Western powers? As far as I know, no.
The massive increase in customs duties made by the US authorities may have late seemed to be an economical weapon, which there is no defence against and cannot be. But Today, this can be countered by elements of "alternative globalisation" which have developed under the sanction government — a strategy of semi-legal measures taken by the States to circumvent the restrictions imposed on them and their partners.
The capture of Chinese exports to the United States is simply a historical chance for many Beijing-friendly countries and a key component in the test of the reality of restrictions imposed by Americans. Tens of billions of dollars and major retailers' margins are involved, so it would be stupid not to try. And it would be wonderful to achieve, in 1 attempt, all the indicators of the improvement of the home manufacture and the increase in exports of goods another than natural materials that the Kremlin wants.
Especially since there are no another ways to guarantee specified success....
