To my surprise, the immense deliveries of U.S. military aid, which reached the Ukrainian Army units in the last month, did not importantly affect the situation on the front.
The Ukrainian Army is inactive in reverse, but the Russians, as part of their “thousand cuts” strategy, open further sections of the “active front”. Is this the beginning of the Russian summertime offensive? Is this just a follow-up, as I call it, "the crawling offensive" of the general Walery Gierasimov (photo)? I will consider arguments concerning the questions raised below.
Tieplinski ended the “Ukrainian torment”, the end of the bridgehead at Krynkami and has free hands to attack the Russian “Dniepr” group commanded by a prominent tactician, commander of the Air-Desant General Michał Tieplinski It yet liquidated the Ukrainian base on the right bank of Dniepr in the village of Krynka. This production of an exceptional aberration of the Ukrainian General Staff, carrying out this costly for people and ammunition operation, conducted contrary to the principles of martial arts, was sustained at the expense of dense losses for propaganda purposes. According to independent sources, this was done on individual orders from the president Volodymyr Zelenski.
For respective months, the Russians "dropped blood" from the Ukrainian naval infantry, which was dedicated to maintaining the price of dense losses above all in the people whose life was a light hand that kept Ukrainian command. General Michał Tiepliński after receiving additional support from Stawka, forces of the 104th Air-Dessant Division and 76th Guards of the Colonel's Landing and Storm Division Denisa Szyszova decided to end these "Ukrainian torments" and "made" the strength at the base.
It was not insignificant to weaken Ukrainian forces on the Kherson operating section and to decision under Kharkiv 1 of the Marine Brigades fighting for the foothold at Krynkami (36 The Independent Marine Brigade is now fighting under Volchansk). The Russian General Staff has developed reserves, which it can dispose of in 2 ways, in the usage of the “slow” activity in the front section. Firstly, it can usage it to support the “East” Group in Zaporozh. But...
It can also, by itself, go to offensive activities and capture the base on the Days. Dynamic and highly ingenious general Michał Tieplinski has under his command considerable forces, including elite ones. The Tieplin commander of the Air-Desant Army has his paratroopers (76 Guards Squadron, 104th Air-Desant Division, 83rd Guards Squadron, 10th Specnaz Brigade, and has specialists trained for landing by water transport, including ships and landing boats (810 Guards Marine Brigade, 126 Coast defence Brigade, 61 Marine Infantry Brigade).
The Russian side has adequate crossing and landing resources to shift troops to the right bank of Dnieper. So we have an operational direction where there are respective options for action in the upcoming summertime campaign. General rector quietly regained what the Ukrainians in Zaporozh captured last summer.
Strong Russian “East” Group commanded by Rector of General War Academy Aleksandra Romanczuk, about the unit which crashed prepared by the large effort of NATO countries, the large Ukrainian summertime offensive in 2023, indivisibly has the initiative and successively pushes the Ukrainians from the lands they occupied last year.
The regiments of the 42nd Mechanized firearm Division rejected fiercely defending Ukrainian soldiers from the 65th Mechanized Brigade and 141th Infantry Brigade, recovering the village of Rabotine. It was here, between Rabotine and Wierbowe, that elite Ukrainian 9th and 10th Army Corps units arrived equally a year ago to strike the main blow of the Russian army, to cut the terrestrial corridor leading to the Crimea to exit the Azov Sea between Mariupol and Berdian.
Rabotine as 80 years earlier Prochorovka, for Nazi tanks including Tigers and Phanter, became a cemetery of Ukrainian Leopards, Bradleys and Marders. present this bloody battlefield has mostly returned to the hands of the Russian army, along with the previously lost elements of the "Surovikina Line".
At the alleged Wriemiewski performance, the Russian army by forces of the 127th Mechanized firearm Division recovered just lost a year ago Staromajorskije and the 5th Armoured Brigade most of the village of Umanskoje. Ukrainian forces 21 and 11 National defender Brigades were rejected. In Zaporozh, the Russians have at least 2 more episodes, where they can decision on to attack action.
South-Donietsky section of the front – Kuzowlew slow cuts off the main supply artery of the town of Wuhledar/Ugledar fortress. General ‘South’ group Siegieja Kuzovleva (a.k.a.
From the fields below the village of Sładkoje in the direction of the village of Wodjane, 39th Armed firearm Brigade is approaching. However, the "grot" of the attack of the 68th Army Corps is aimed at the village of Kostiantyniwka, on which the prefields from 2 directions scope 57th Mechanized firearm Brigade, 3 regiments of infantry, 22nd BARS Battalion and 7th Commandos Battalion.
The right flank pierces units 20 and 6 of the firearm Squadron. Above in the axis from the celebrated Marinka towards the village of Georgiawka, they approach regiments of the legendary 150th firearm Division. About the fortified bastion of Ukrainian defence in bloody city fights fiercely beats 5th Mechanized firearm Brigade and the town of Krasnogorovka in 65% is already in Russian hands. Kuzowlew did not introduce all the reserves to fight, and he has 1 concentrated in Donetsk.
Mordwiczow is approaching the Avdeev-Pokrovsk operational direction. The Russian “Centrum” group of General Andrei Mordwiczov after the capture of the city of the fortress Avdieevka, and the full Avdeevsky territory of the Reinforced has passed from further harassment efforts. The 1st Army Corps forces are approaching the Axis on Pokrowsk. 9th Marine Brigade and legendary battalion "Sparta" backed by forces of respective reserve regiments fight for the village of Karlivka, Under Umaskoje approaches 114th firearm Brigade Mechanized.
After regrouping and embodiment of additions, from a fewer days to active activities, units of the 2 and 41 Guards of the National Military Army crossed the alleged Ozetyn Breakage. In the belt from the village of Sokoł and Nowo-Czeretyne, which Russian troops storm, the regiments of the 27th Mechanized firearm Division (formerly 21st Mechanized firearm Brigade) are approaching along with the 55th Mountain firearm Brigade. The 137th assault brigade is approaching Newaleksandrowka. Importantly, in the second pitch, General Mordvikov has considerable reserves including the 90th Armored defender Division and the 41th Army forces. The Russians are evidently waiting for something, and the front is "third".
Jar Times
A bastion of defence has fallen overshadowing the main part of the city lying on the left bank of the Donnet-Donbas Canal, a territory of "Canal". The shift of parts of Ukrainian forces to save the front at Kharkov weakened the defence of Donbas's key fortress which is Jar Times. This was utilized by Russian troops, including paratroopers of the 98th Air-Desant General Division Yevgenija Tonkich and in fresh days they have captured 2/3 of the "Channel" district, and 1/3 is in the alleged grey zone.
The cities present are armed by 241 Territorial Defence Brigade and 41 Mechanized Brigade and a number of smaller Ukrainian units. The right flank is covered by Krasne 5th Assault Brigade, 18th National defender Brigade and 67th Mechanized Brigade. There's a 17th Armored Brigade and a 56th Motorised Brigade in the ward. A number of reserve regiments are fighting on the Russian side, as well as the 11th Infantry Squadron, 200th Arctic Brigade, 72nd and 4th Mechanized firearm Brigade. This is where 4 volunteer/rental brigades were concentrated: ‘Ispaniola’, ‘Terek’, ‘Wolfs’ and ‘North-V’.
The Russian troops have strong air support provided in this section, and it is both bomb aviation with Su-34 aircraft and very active assault aviation on Su-25 aircraft. Units of the 3rd Army Corps are supported by the 17th dense Artillery Brigade and 333rd Volunteer Artillery Brigade. Under Bilohoriwka, the 7th Mechanized firearm Brigade besides went to active action.
Lugansk, Kupinian operating direction
Russian activity on the Terna episode, where they attack units of the 20th National Army, however, Russian activity has clearly declined here erstwhile an exceptional loser, a violent and blunt general, is incarcerated well in the MON systems, called by soldiers "the butcher", General Suchrab Achmedov He was cancelled right after the Shojg Minister left.
Interestingly, the Russian 1st Armoured defender Army no longer casts a continuous frontline. Her elite strike units as the 2nd defender firearm Division Mechanized, 4th and 47th Armoured Divisions were divided between the 20th National Army, 25th National Military Army, 6th National Army, “West Grouping” and in large part went to the 2nd pitch. This may be suggested by the concept of combating by units of the above-mentioned breach army, in which fast armored unions belonging to the 1st Armoured Army will be introduced.
The Ukrainian side on the border of Charkovszczyna and Lugansk has at least 4 crisis points, where the forces of the “West” group of General Evgeny Yegorov are pushing. It is simply a part of Toskie – Terny, it is Nowowodany, it is yet the area of the village of Kisłówka, Kotlarovka, Ivanovka late captured and Synkiwka pod Cupuszek.
General Lapin and a hold operation?
Under Kharkov the Russians carry out a successful operation consisting of the withdrawal and engagement of Ukrainian detachments. The commanding General Lapin here, amazingly and rapidly occupied the border belt, including fortifications, with a depth of 8 to 21 km at Kharkov's height.
Ukrainian command to the success of the North Group reacted nervously, even panicked and chaoticly directed various battalion groups from various brigades to fight. Command was dismissed, commanders were exchanged.
A successful Russian disinformation operation caused the political leadership of Ukraine to be hysterically afraid of Kharkov's loss, forced the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army general Syrian Alexander Replacing troops in Donbas including from the times of Jaru, Zaporozh and Chersonish.
The Russians, with limited forces of about 30,000 soldiers attacking 2 directions, i.e. the village of Lipcy and the town of Volchansk, now went there to defend themselves. Ukrainian command has decided to take Volchansk at all costs, but so far, with mediocre results. Russian air strikes and artillery inhibit Ukrainian counterattacks.
To illustrate how much the Ukrainians lacked the evidence present I will list which units directed to fight for Volchansk:
– 71 Jegrów Brigade (extremely searched from Zaporozh), Free Corps Russia (really in the strength of the battalion), Regiment of the National defender "Tsunami", panic Battalion" of the Free Corps of Belarus, Assault Brigade of the National defender "Liut", 82nd Independent Desantowo-Sturvowa Brigade (sent from Zaporozhód), 57th Mechanized Brigade, 2 battalions from the 36th Marine Infantry Brigade (throwed from Khersonschenia), Battalion "Arej from the 129th Territorial Defence Brigade, 2 battalions from the "Legion of Free Russia"125 Territorial Defence Brigade, 42nd Marine Infantry Brigade". Together, it's about 30,000 bayonets.
On the Russian side, he defends himself and counterattacks the group in the recalculation force of the 2 divisions, headed by command of the 47th Armoured Division of the 1st Armoured defender Army. In particular, the Russians have here: 25 Self-Governing Armed firearm Brigade, 26 and 153 Tank Regiment from the 47th Armoured Division, 272 Mechanized firearm Regiment, 1st firearm Regiment mechanized from the 2nd Taman Guarded Guarded Division, and directed here from the Donetsk 155th Marine Brigade, and the peculiar Regiment "Achmat". The full is supported by 244 Artillery Brigade
The Russian side has not brought all units into combat, hence the Ukrainians inactive gotta number on General Lapin to strike at the minute of crisis. Ukrainians counterattack under July. They have the 92th Mechanized Brigade, 5th and 13th National defender Brigade, the Belarusian Volunteer Regiment “Kalinowski”, the elite 8th peculiar Forces Regiment, the volunteer Russian “Syberian Battalion” and moved from the Jaru Times 2 battalions of 93th Mechanized Brigade.
The Russians put up a unit against these forces of the 18th firearm Division mechanized from the Kaliningrad territory and the 72nd firearm Division mechanized in support of the 45th Swirska Brigade of large Power Artillery and the 217th Airborne Regiment of the 98th defender Airborne Division. Interestingly, the Russian diversional group from the "Achmat" Regiment on the day of June 9 occupied the village of Rżwka, thus invading the Summary Oblast. Activating fights and all that.
Throughout the 1500 km long front, Russian troops have the initiative, and the Ukrainian side is in deep defense. Russian aviation is actively operating gross targets utilizing glide bombs and guided rockets. Rocket troops destruct Ukrainian ammunition, fuel and command points.
The commander-in-chief of the Russian army group in Ukraine, the army general Walera Gierasimov, acting in accordance with the rules of war art, is expanding the actions of his own troops, including the fire effect on the opponent, and beginning fresh directions of offensive tactical action. Ukrainian command gradually loses reserves, equipment, ammunition and supplies, and above all, suffers large losses in people. The Russian side consistently reduces the possible of the Ukrainian troops, trying to lead to crisis situations, the number of which is constantly expanding and at the minute determined by Stanka will introduce into the fight reserves estimated at about 150,000 soldiers.
In my opinion, Russian planet War II-style offensive operations are not to be expected to break the front lines and deep panzer-marine tails introduced into the breach, in order to lead the raids of the operating space, as this is impossible in a day of drones, just as it is impossible to surprise operationally.
Rather, it will be a series of tiny tactical strikes forcing the retreat of the weakened Ukrainian army from subsequent defensive runs. It should not be excluded that, in the event of revealing a weakened section of the front, the Russian side of the temptation to extend tactical contrusions and to carry out offensive, operationally significant, engagement operations.
According to the Russian doctrine, lashing actions will precede a number of apparent maneuvers, and intense multi-level disinformation operations, which we are already partially observing. The Russian side is taking its time, acting in a planned and balanced way, which for the expert is visible to the bare eye.
On the Ukrainian side, we see increasingly tense movements of troops, deficiency of reserves, engagement of politicians in military decisions and the hysteria of the propaganda run 72 Center for intellectual Operations and Informational peculiar Forces of Ukraine.
We are facing a series of clashes of summertime campaigns, Russian stroke campaigns, which in my opinion have already begun, or at least we see her prelude. General Gierasimov clearly moved on to the next phase of his aggravating actions.
Krzysztof Podgórski
