Cooperation: Małgorzata Czarnik, Paweł Gawryluk
Analysis in Brief
– Vice president candidate Kamala Harris became Minnesota State politician Tim Walz; they visited 5 key states within 5 days;
– Walz's candidacy met with fierce Republican criticism; any of them in the Harris/Walz duo see the most left-wing election duo in US history;
– JD Vance, Donald Trump's candidate for vice president, campaigned in 3 states last week on precisely the same days as his competitors;
– D. Trump held only 1 election rally in August and does not plan to return to the run tour before 23 August;
– Republicans were amazed by the candidacy of Harris and her fast election offensive; so far they have not worked out an effective response;
Tim Walz – a fresh boost of enthusiasm for the Harris campaign
On August 6, Kamala Harris announced the name of her Vice president candidate. Tim Walz has been the politician of Minnesota for the Democratic organization since 2019. In this capacity, he became celebrated for his progressive legislative achievements. (child taxation credit, paid wellness and parental leave, free meals for school students, cover the cost of undergraduate studies for selected students, etc.) [1]. On the another hand, he was criticized for imposing restrictive rules in consequence to the COVID-19 pandemic (e.g. order to stay in houses and order to wear masks in closed spaces) [2] and for the late – according to critics – consequence to the riots that broke out in Minneapolis in 2020 after being killed by police officer George Floyd (according to critics, he could have activated branches of the State National defender the day before) [3]. He is besides wrongly accused of taking action at that time to reduce police backing [4].
The character of Walz is very charismatic, cheerful and unpretentious, which inspires the enthusiasm of the audience and earns the sympathy of the voters. Prior to his appointment as governor, he sat in the national home of Representatives for 12 years, where he represented a "difficult district" (both before and after he was won by Republicans), which may prove his effectiveness in pursuing average voters. Even before that, he worked as a teacher and coach of American football, and from 1981 to 2005 he served in the National Guard, where he was delegated to the units liable for responding to humanitarian disasters. It operated not only in the US, but in 2003 it went to Italy, where the Minnesota National defender supported Operation Enduring Freedom in Iraq. However, he did not fight with a weapon in his hand, for which he is presently attacked by Republicans all the more so that in 1 2018 interview he seemed to propose otherwise. In 2006, he was accused of inaccuracies in informing about his military service [5], and in 2005 he abandoned service in the National defender for campaigning for legislature shortly before his unit was transferred to Iraq [6].
Harris and Walz's first joint public appearance took place on 6 August at an election rally in Philadelphia (Pennsylvania), after which the Democratic duo continued his run tour along the key states' way (Wisconsin 7, Michigan 7-8, Arizona 9 and Nevada 10 August) [7]. In Michigan, Harris answered a fewer questions for the first time in almost 3 weeks and announced that she was planning to give 1 tv interview this period [8]. She besides refused to participate in Trump's debate at FOX News on September 4, informing that her approval for further debate would depend on Trump's participation in the debate at ABC News on September 10 (for which Trump agreed) [9].
Donald Trump: “a basement campaign”?
Donald Trump is most likely disappointed that the rival not only catches up with him in the polls, but besides enjoys the enthusiasm of voters – run events involving her attract crowds, and the media mostly supply her with a affirmative message [10]. He so organised a long press conference on 8 August in Mar-a-Lago to attract media attention. Although inactive a fewer days earlier he announced that he would not join the presidential debate on 10 September on ABC television, he proposed 3 debates at the conference: 4 September in FOX News, 10 September in ABC and 25 September in NBC [11]. In turn, both parties invited CBS station [12].
Despite the above, Trump announced that he did not intend to return to the run way before the conclusion of the Democratic organization Convention (August 22) justifying this step by intending to wait out this period. In the last week, Trump had only 1 election rally held on August 9, Montana. In the presidential election, this state is unequivocally pro-Republican, but this year there is an crucial legislature seat race between the incumbent politician Jon Tester and the Republican challenger Tim Sheety. The support of the latter, who leads the polls, was Trump's main goal [13]. Trump's run activities in the next 2 weeks will so be limited to occasional meetings with donors and on-site interviews in Mar-a-Lago or remotely, which spawns associations with the 2020 run erstwhile Trump ridiculed J. Biden for moving the "basement" campaign.
Instead of Trump, the intensive run is led by JD Vance, who followed Harris and Walz last week, visiting the same states in the same days as the competitors [14]. His electoral promises focused mostly on the fight against illegal immigration, interior safety and the economy, namely those in which Republicans traditionally have the top assurance in voters. He besides paid no little attention to the criticism of tandem Harris/Valz as far left [15]. Both Trump and another Republicans enthusiastically referred to Walz's candidacy, which they consider easier to attack. Vance in peculiar accused Walz of perverting the fact about his military service [16].
Conclusions
Tim Walz's election as vice presidential candidate provided Kamala Harris' run with an additional stimulus and there is simply a good chance that the Democratic Convention in Chicago (19-22 August) will be able to keep a advanced level of enthusiasm, all the more so that Donald Trump limited his run efforts. On the another hand, Walz's election exposed the democrats to criticism, among others, for: clearly left-wing over the Harris/Walz duo or for inaccuracies in Walz's coverage of his career in the National Guard.
Donald Trump is disappointed in the state of the presidential race. He most likely underestimated the opponent, did not anticipate Joe Biden to resign from moving for president and that he could be caught up in the polls so rapidly and realized he could lose the election. However, his answer is limited for now – he may indeed be planning to wait out a period of enthusiasm for democrats and plan an intensive run for the next 2 months.
A major asset of the Harris/Valz run is the compatibility of both candidates on a individual level, which translates into joint organizing of run events. On the another hand, Trump and Vance run mostly separately. It is besides worth noting that the Vice president has played a very limited function in the elections so far, which does not mean that this year, due to the amazing course of the campaign, it cannot be otherwise. Democrats besides have a affirmative imagination for voters, while Republicans pay more attention to criticizing their opponents. Reversing this proportion by the Trump/Vance duo may be crucial to reversing the current trend in polls.
Bibliography
[1] Tami Luhby, Katie Lobosco, Jen Christensen, Meg Tirrell, Ella Nilsen, A look at Walz’s progressive policies as Minnesota’s governorCNN, 7.08.2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/07/politics/minesota-governor-walz-progressive-policy/index.html.
[2] Executive Orders From politician Walz, Office of politician Tim Walz & Lt. politician Peggy Flanagan, 11.08.2024, https://mn.gov/governor/newsroom/executive-orders/#/list/appId/1/filterType/Date/filterValue/2020-03/page/1/sort//order/.
[3] Joedy McCreary, GOP critics say Tim Walz 'let Minnesota burn' in 2020 protests. Here’s What Happened, USA Today, accessed: 11.08.2024, https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/08/08/tim-walz-george-floyd-protests-minnesota-fact-check/74704048007/.
[4] Theo Keith, Fact Check: GOP ad spins five-alarm falsehood that Walz backed defunding police, 27.10.2022, https://www.fox9.com/news/fact-check-gop-ad-spins-five-alarm-falsehood-that-walz-backed-defunding-policy.
[5] Andrew Kaczynski, VP choice Tim Walz faced appointments in 2006 of embellishing his military service, which he called slander, 8.08.20124, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/08/politics/tim-walz-accusations-2006-embellishing-military-service/index.html.
[6] Meg Kinnard, Here’s a look at questions about Tim Walz’s military record9.08.2024, https://apnews.com/article/walz-national-guard-military-ae43d684bf1319e535f9f62052155d7.
[7] Briefing Room, The White House, accessed: 11.08.2024, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/.
[8] Remarks by Vice president Harris Before Air Force 2 Departure, The White House, 8:08.2024, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/08/08/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-before-air-force-two-departure-9/.
[9] Selina Wang, X (formerly Twitter), 9.08.2024, https://x.com/selinawangtv/status/1821680709678870641?t=mTwKJjxl8SldLF5SA3_SXQ&s=19.
[10] Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan, Inside the Worst 3 Weeks of Donald Trump’s 2024 Campaign, The fresh York Times, 10.08.20124, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/us/politics/trump-campaign-election.html.
[11] Former president Trump Speaks to the Press at Mar-a-Lago, C-SPAN, 8:08.2024, https://www.c-span.org/video/?537632-1/president-trump-speaks-press-mar-lago.
[12] Caitlin Yilek, When will the next presidential debate of 2024 take place and who will average it?, CBS News, 8.08.20124, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/when-is-second-presidential-debate-2024/.
[13] Former president Trump Speaks.., op.cit.
[14] Stephen Fowler, As Democrats Barnstorm battleground states, so does JD VanceNPR, 7.08.2024, https://www.npr.org/2024/08/07/nx-s1-5066770/jd-vance-kamala-harris-pennsylvania-michigan-wisconsin-rally.
[15] An example performance: Peter Hall, J.D. Vance bashes Harris, Walz during run halt in south Philly, Pennsylvania Capital-Star, 6.88.2024, https://penncapital-star.com/election-2024/j-d-vance-immigration-economy-south-philadelphia-for-first-pennsylvania-campaign-stop/.
[16] Bailee Hill, Trump 'thrilled' with Harris tapping 'very liberal' Tim Walz as moving mate: 'Shocking pick', FOX News, 7.08.20124, https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-thrilled-harris-tapping-very-liberal-tim-walz-running-mate-shocking-pick.
