Since Israel launched attacks on Iran's atomic infrastructure a fewer days ago, Russian president Vladimir Putin has been in contact with planet leaders about the conflict. As the Kremlin served, Putin spoke to both Iran's president Masud Pezeszkaan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
According to a message published on the Kremlin's website, the Russian leader "has expressed his condolences to the leaders and the people of Iran for many casualties in humans" and "stressed that Russia condemns Israel's actions that have been carried out in violation of the United Nations Charter and global law". The next day Putin again condemned Israel's operation during a telephone conversation with U.S. president Donald Trump, a staunch Netanyahu ally.
However, despite Russia's alliance with Iran, I don't think the Kremlin will give military assistance to his strategical partner.
The Golden Pact of Moscow and Tehran
Given the economical ties between Russia and Iran, it is not amazing that Putin condemned Israel for attacking the muslim Republic. Iran has long been a close partner of Russia, including due to the fact that Western democracies have imposed severe sanctions on both countries. Iran has late besides joined BRICS, a group of emerging economies co-founded by Russia.
Their relations became even closer after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The West accused Iran of supplying Russia with military drones that were utilized to attack Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. According to media reports, drones could have cost Moscow at least 1.8 tons of gold bars worth about $104 million that were donated to Iran's Sahara Thunder company. It is not excluded that Iran could besides ask Russia to aid implement the atomic program.
Analysts believe Moscow would not want to lose specified a reliable partner. “The Kremlin operates according to the old Qur'an rule: 'Fight and wage war but do not cross borders', said DW Ruslan Sulejmanov, an analyst for the mediate East from Cairo, Egypt. "In another words, Moscow, which has its interests and is present in the mediate East, would like to avoid any uncontrolled chaos in the region," he said.
Russian military aid unlikely
Following Israel's attacks on Iran, the Iranian parliament ratified the treaty on a comprehensive strategical partnership with Russia. The agreement was initially signed by the presidents of both countries in January and approved by the Russian Parliament 2 months ago.
Despite its ambitious name, the Treaty does not constitute a pact on common defence. It does not oblige either organization to supply military assistance in the event of an attack. Instead, it simply obliges both sides to refrain from helping their opponents.
Analyst Marianna Bielienkaj, who left Russia after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and presently lives in Israel, believes that it is highly improbable that Moscow would offer Iran any direct military support – at least not officially and openly.
– There is no request for that, especially since (Moscow) tries to reconstruct or improve relations with Washington. Although 1 cannot completely exclude a certain behind-the-scenes commitment, Bielienkaja believes.
Russia as a mediator?
According to the analyst, Putin's fresh bids, which are ready to be a mediator between Iran and his opponents, are sincere. Last year Putin reportedly advised Iran's highest leader, Ale Chamenei, to return to the negotiating table, claims Bielienkaja.
In turn, U.S. president Donald Trump said in a fresh interview with the US ABC News news network that he was open to mediation by Russia in the Israeli-Iranian conflict.
Bielienkaja believes that Russia "probably cannot exert force on Iran as the United States did" as a mediator, "but it can service as a channel of communication".
During the indirect talks between the US and Iran in April, it was expected that Russia could actually play a crucial function in the atomic agreement with Iran. The Guardian paper reported that Moscow was being considered as a possible destination for Iran's stocks of highly enriched uranium, and could besides service as an impartial arbiter in the event of any breach of the agreement. This arrangement suggested that Russia would bring advanced enriched uranium from Iran back if the US violated the agreement.
If specified an agreement had been concluded, Germany, France and the United Kingdom would have lost the function of guarantors under the 2015 atomic agreement with Iran, from which Trump withdrew the US in 2018.
The Conflict on the Kremlin's Hand
At the same time, experts believe that the Kremlin's hand is to distract the West from the ongoing Russian war against Ukraine. Tuesday (17.06.2025) Russia has carried out 1 of the most deadly attacks on Kiev in fresh months, killing 14 people and wounding dozens. At the same time, the G7 leaders in Canada sought to address the escalation of the conflict in the mediate East.
There was besides no gathering between Donald Trump and the president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenski, who arrived at the G7 summit. Trump left Canada early in the Israeli-Iran conflict.
In Ruslan Sulejmanov's opinion, it is in the interests of the Kremlin to distract American and European leaders from what is happening in Ukraine. – In this context, Putin can usage the chance to launch an offensive or origin any another kind of trouble," said Sulejmanow.
