Deutsche Welle: Mr General, whether from a military point of view Are the Germans at war or at peace with Russia?
General Carsten Breuer*: I think that the categories of peace, crisis and war that we so much like to usage to realize matters and to trust on something reliable are not utilized by the Russians. Russia sees war as a continuum and so measures are being applied that may already look like war, but most likely not yet.
I mean primarily hybrids. In another words, a state is created which is no longer rather peace, but is not entirely war. And it is in this grey region that we are moving, besides in our relations with Russia.
You repeatedly warned that by 2029 Russia could theoretically be able to launch an attack on NATO territory. What are the signs?
Well, we have different analyses, we see that Russia is presently doing quite a few good, namely producing about 1,500 tanks a year, either from warehouses – and then renewing them – or from fresh production. And these 1500 tanks, as well as about 4 million pieces of artillery ammunition, all the material that is produced, as you can see, does not go straight to the front in Ukraine, but goes to warehouses and is then prepared in warehouses or stored there.
At the same time, Russia will increase its armed forces to around 1.5 million soldiers next year. And we see fresh military structures, military districts, for example, that are clearly oriented towards the West.
If we then combine it with intentions that we can read from Putin's speeches and video statements, then on the 1 hand it clearly shows that 2029 is the point where material and personnel can grow to specified an degree that an attack on NATO's territory will be possible.
How advanced is the probability?
This probability cannot be estimated. It is simply a anticipation that exists as a consequence of what I have just described, but it is almost impossible to find the probability. The very fact that this may happen must make us ready to defend ourselves, that we can deter specified an attack and thus prevent it.
However, you say that Russia sees war as a continuum. To what degree must German society and the German military learn to think strategically in a fresh way?
Of course, we request to adapt to this, we request to see what can be utilized against us or how we can be attacked and we request to be able to counter it.
Once again, deterrence is simply a key issue for me. And the best way to scare distant is to defend yourself. And this readiness to defend comes not only from weapon systems, not only from the number of personnel, but besides from mentality, resilience, which must be present in both society and the armed forces.
This is besides due to military strength. Recently, Denmark, 1 of NATO's allies, introduced compulsory military service for women. What step should another German government take?
From a military point of view, I can say that we must have growth potential, i.e. we must increase the size of our armed forces, our calculations show that we request 460,000 soldiers, both reservists and men in active service.
This possible for growth must be ensured through any form of military service, either compulsory or voluntary. It's a political decision. I can only say that we have created or are in the process of creating conditions in the armed forces that will enable us to realise this growth potential.
German society must besides become resistant to crises, it must be prepared for different scenarios. The Ministry of the Interior calls for the introduction of a school subject or more lessons on which students and students were better prepared for scenarios specified as disasters and wars. What is your position on this matter?
Of course, we gotta face this situation, with the anticipation of the worst case script coming, but we cannot do it in specified a way that we say something is going to happen and nothing can be done about it. There is simply a request to admit the possible to address specified a threat.
That's what immunity is. We strengthen society, make it more resilient, combining all factors, making politics, society, the economy and the military jointly look at this threat and jointly find what can be done to counter it. This is not something that we can only respond to, but we can be active and that is the active attitude we request to adopt.
What advice would you give to the next German government on priorities? Should fresh structures be a priority, or should it be an integrated joint work of the various departments concerned?
As far as the military side is concerned, it is clear to me that we request to increase our operational readiness, which means that everything we request to do now, all our efforts must be directed towards expanding our operational readiness so that we can meet NATO requirements and our own goals that we are already pursuing.
We gotta do this. This means that everything we order must contribute to this. In society and among the various national ministries, it is crucial that we have a common view of the threat. The creation of these structures, their further improvement where they exist, must be the goal of the coming years, as this is the only way to make society resilient.
Thank you for talking to me.
