The planet is facing increasing geopolitical competition. The United States is trying to keep influence in Latin America while negotiating with China and India on trade while Europe is looking for its own balance. Taiwan and relations with China stay crucial in the Far East, and the mediate East is inactive struggling with tensions between Iran, Turkey and Israel. In the face of these challenges, global stableness requires precise diplomacy and strategical caution.
Monroe's doctrine primarily afraid Latin and Central America. In the 19th century, the threat to the US was not China, but the European powers that tried to grow their influence in this area. The Americans made it clear that they would respond militarily if Europe tried to subjugate the United States' neighbours.
The Return of Monroe Doctrine and the function of the USA in Latin America
In a sense, present we see a return to this logic. What happens off the coast of Venezuela shows that Washington is not going to quit the field. And it is hard for him to deny the right – if the US withdraws, China will take root in the region. Beijing is already entering Latin America, and attempts to install military bases have taken place in both Venezuela and Cuba. No wonder the United States can't look at it indifferently. From the point of view of allies, this must be understood.
Another issue concerns the sharing of responsibility. The Americans would like Europe to take over most of the burden of politics towards Russia. Whether it will come to this – it is unknown. On the another hand, it is known that the planet is increasingly divided into 2 political and economical blocks, and possibly besides military in the future. The thought of creating an "Asian NATO" – an alliance of countries focused around China and Russia – comes back all now and then. Beijing officially rejects it, Moscow has not been curious in it yet either, but the very possible of specified a block exists and it must be taken into account.
NATO in practice is based primarily on the United States. It is the Americans who are taking on the main burden of the alliance, while Europe, despite the increase in defence spending, is inactive incapable to conduct its own safety policy. He can only support the US, but he can't replace their leadership.
Global trade blockades and economical competition with China and India
The Americans are conducting an economical offensive against China, negotiating a trade order in Madrid and mitigating the effects of the customs war to rebuild the US manufacture and improve the trade balance. Trump is successful and China is becoming aware that trade imbalances cannot last forever. akin talks are taking place with India, although Trump's ultimatum has become a problem with secondary duties towards Russia-India supporting countries, even though their support for Moscow is limited mainly to oil purchases, while China has not been subject to specified duties.
Europe is in a different situation. Although besides suffering from trade imbalances with China, it is believed in Brussels that problems can be resolved discreetly, without media escalation, which could accelerate global military competition. Trump's policy towards China and Russia was to prevent the return to the Cold War division of the world, but after the gathering in Beijing, the anti-Western block clearly strengthened.
The most dangerous possible is to join India in the alliance of China and Russia. Although that decision has not been made and fresh Delhi is trying to balance, the same script would be a disaster. It would mean that against the United States and the full West there would be 3 most powerful countries in the planet outside the US.
However, the fact is that the division of the planet is already progressing – it is becoming sharper especially in the rhetoric of the countries of the global South, specified as Brazil and Indonesia, which are becoming increasingly distant from the West.
However, there is inactive area for agreement for China itself. Beijing did not completely close the door to cooperation with the West, and this gives hope of avoiding a full confrontation.
China seeks to keep globalisation, albeit in limited form, with additional administrative barriers, which is simply a prerequisite for their economical development. Europe is improbable to support Trump's secondary duties, although it can introduce its own restrictions to defend trade interests – Poland experiences this clearly, importing much more than it can sale from China, mainly due to Chinese administrative constraints.
Russia – China can change their support for Moscow on the negotiating table if globalisation and economical cooperation with the West are maintained. Americans have a chance to negociate this return, although the consequence is uncertain.
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Eastern Asia: Taiwan, Hong Kong and geopolitical tensions
Taiwan remains a key issue. China considers the island to be part of its country, and the US formally recognizes it while awaiting peaceful unification. Taiwanese and Hong Kong residents argue this scenario, cultivating political and cultural differences.
Hong Kong and Taiwan inactive cultivate their cultural and political distinctness, although they had to accept certain restrictions. Currently, with the comparatively weak United States military and economic, it is possible to negociate 2 key issues: the unification of China with Taiwan and the regulation of Chinese support for Russia. The success of these talks could importantly strengthen the US and keep planet peace, although relations with China stay uncertain.
Addressing these issues reduces the hazard of the 3rd planet War, a possible outbreak of which could arise in East Asia. Another unpredictable region is the mediate East, where strategical actions are carried out by Turkey, Israel (supported by the US) and Iran. fresh events show that Iran is inactive developing an arsenal of ballistic missiles capable of reaching London and moving atomic warheads despite earlier American and Israeli attacks.
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Middle East and Regional Security: Iran, Turkey and Israel
As for Iran's possession of atomic weapons, there is no 100% certainty. American sources reported that work on the atomic programme could only be stopped temporarily, for a period or two. In my opinion, Iran has atomic weapons, although it does not publically disclose them and can possibly usage them, are the lessons learned from experience in analysing global threats.
Turkey remains in dispute with Iran and sees it as a major regional rival, sometimes ahead of Israel in public opinion polls. Ankara competes with Tel Aviv for influence in Syria – the overthrow of Assad finds success, strengthening its sphere of influence. A Turkish military presence was planned in the Palmira area, but Israel bombed the base, neutralizing these actions.
Israel implements its own safety policy, extending control outside Golan Hill, including south of Damascus, which neither Syria nor Turkey likes. Ankara reacted reticently, but broke off business contacts and closed the airspace for Israeli aircraft – a clear informing signal.
Recent events in Qatar are also example of tensions in the region. The planned assassination of Hamas leaders was initially cancelled by the Mossad chief, due to Qatar's strategical importance in negotiations with arabian and Hamas states. However, the Israeli Prime Minister decided to carry out the attack with armed forces, taking advantage of the chance that Hamas' chief leaders gathered in Dohze. The Americans were only informed at the time of the attack, and the effectiveness of the action remains unclear – Hamas propaganda claims the assassination failed.
There is inactive a hazard of escalation of the conflict in the mediate East region – especially in the confrontations between Israel and Turkey or Iran. Iran does not have the strength to launch an offensive against Israel, which is simply a 1000 kilometres away. Currently, China is Iran's main ally, providing modern anti-aircraft defence systems. It's 1 of the possible outbreaks of conflict that could become a major war.
Europe remains comparatively safe. The demonstrations of force, specified as in the framework of the east Guard, prevent Russia from taking greater armed action, and the relation of forces does not let it to win in confrontation with the West. The problem remains in the Far East, where the United States rebuild its bases on the alleged "second chain of islands", securing the region. The success of Americans is besides the close-up of Japan and South Korea, erstwhile rivals, as part of common security.
