Fuel prices are going down. The experts gave accurate forecasts for Monday!

From the next Monday to 30 June, drivers can anticipate a pleasant surprise at distributors. Long-awaited reductions in fuel prices are coming, which will bring relief to the portfolios of millions of Poles, especially in the context of upcoming vacation trips. According to fresh marketplace analyses, the declines will include both petrol and diesel. This is the first signal so clear in weeks that the growth trend has been broken.

The main reason for this affirmative change is simply a crucial drop in oil prices on global exchanges, due to a calming geopolitical situation in the mediate East. Experts from analytical companies specified as Reflex have already published detailed forecasts that let to prepare for lower refueling bills. Although a full scale of reductions at retail stations may happen with a slight delay, the direction of change is clear and beneficial to consumers.

Key reason for the reductions. The situation in the mediate East calms the markets

The current drop in fuel prices is primarily driven by a geopolitical factor, which has been the main driver of growth in fresh months. A truce between Iran and Israel brought deescalation of the conflict, which the financial and natural materials markets took with large relief. stableness in the Ormuz Strait, a strategical maritime way through which a crucial part of planet oil is transported, is crucial here.

The immediate effect of calming moods is simply a sharp fall in Brent oil prices. A week ago, its price oscillated at advanced levels, raising concerns about further increases in stations. But now Brent's August oil contracts are valued at about $68.80 per barrel. This means a drop of nearly $9 in just a fewer days. specified a correction on the natural material marketplace had to be yet reflected in the wholesale prices of fuels in Poland, and consequently in the pylons of petrol stations.

Analysts stress that while the oil marketplace remains delicate to any reports from the mediate East, the current truce gives hope for a longer period of stabilisation. This in turn creates a solid foundation for maintaining lower prices in the coming weeks, which is excellent news for those planning to travel by car for summer.

How much precisely are we going to pay for the fuel? Here are the price forecasts from June 30

Drivers are looking forward to numbers. According to the latest analyst study from Reflex, specializing in fuel marketplace monitoring, prices at stations should start falling to fresh lower levels from Monday onwards. The forecast price ranges for the coming week are as follows:

• Unleaded petrol 95 (Pb95): 5,95 – 6,01 PLN/l
• Unleaded petrol 98 (Pb98): 6,70 – 6,76 PLN/l
• Diesel (ON): 6,05 – 6,12 PLN/l
• Autogas (LPG): 2,77 – 2,81 PLN/l

It is peculiarly crucial that the price of popular 95-octane petrol has a chance to fall below the intellectual barrier of PLN 6 per litre for the first time in a long time. This is not only a symbolic but besides a real relief for the household budget.

It is besides worth drawing attention to the comparison with last year. presently Pb95 gasoline is cheaper by about 46 cents per litre than in the same period of 2023. In the case of diesel, the difference is equally crucial and is about 40 grosz in favour of drivers. The only fuel that has increased annually is the autogas – its price is about 19 cents higher per litre.

Why are the stations inactive more expensive? Delayed consequence to wholesale declines

Many drivers, observing the falling oil prices in the world, ask themselves: why do station cuts not appear immediately? This phenomenon has its economical rationale. The prices we see at distributors are retail prices, and these respond to changes in the wholesale marketplace with any delay. Fuel station operators buy fuel at wholesale prices that have actually been falling for respective days. However, before the simplification is transferred to the final customer, it must take any time.

The station owners frequently await confirmation and stabilisation of the fresh trend. Violent fluctuations in natural material prices could put them at hazard if oil abruptly increased again. so operators make adjustments with caution, making certain that the lower costs of buying fuel in bulk stay for longer. However, the current clear downward trend gives certainty that reductions are inevitable and we will see them on a full scale in the coming days.

Experts foretell that if there is no unforeseen turbulence in global markets, The first half of July will bring even deeper reductions. Seasonal promotions are besides possible, especially during long weekends, which network stations will want to attract customers on vacations.

What about fuel prices? Key decision OPEC+ as of 6 July

Although the current situation is optimistic, the future of fuel prices will mostly depend on decisions that will be made internationally. Now. The key gathering of the OPEC+ Group will be held on 6 July, i.e. the organization of the world's largest oil producers, including Russia. It is these countries that control a large part of global production and, through their decisions, can influence the supply of natural material and thus the price of the natural material.

At the meeting, ministers will decide on mining policy for the following months. Analysts consider 2 main scenarios. The first, beneficial to drivers, is decision to increase the mining limits. A larger amount of oil on the marketplace with current request could lead to a further decrease in its prices, which would translate into even cheaper fuel in Poland. The second script is to keep existing cuts in production in order to keep prices at a satisfactory level for producers.

The result of this gathering will be closely monitored by markets worldwide. For Polish drivers, this means that although the next fewer days will bring relief, the long-term price trend for the remainder of the vacation remains questionable and will depend on global oil policy.