Election polls a fewer months ago, as well as those later, erstwhile it became clear that the PiS candidate would be Karol Nawrocki, gave Rafał Trzaskowski an advantage over the remainder of the rate of frequently respective percent points. Its triumph in the second circular was besides not to be threatened. So what went wrong? Almost everything.
The reasons for election defeat can be divided into those blamed by the candidate, his staff and the political environment behind him, as well as those independent from the loser.
Coalition October 15 does not know why he rules
Regardless of what Rafał Trzaskowski would do in this campaign, what he said, promised and announced, he would not be able to "detach" from the ruling camp – its effectiveness (or deficiency of it) and how it is judged. The coalition, on October 15, acts as if it has no awareness of who chose it and why it rules.
The present Sejm was selected at the evidence in the past of the 3rd Polish turnout, while the pictures depicting long queues of voters patiently waiting to vote for hours after the closing of the polling stations. The unprecedented scale of mobilisation, which will not be repeated for a long time, has voted in favour of change, perpetuity, fresh quality and reforms in many areas.
These hopes have failed. The government, judged as badly as this one, Mateusz Morawiecki, just before the failure of power, cannot make compromise draft laws in areas that divide the coalitions, as well as those for which consent is given. The public media seized in December 2023 did not receive reform. There is besides the government's communication policy, it is not presented what has been done, and coalition leaders do not talk to each other. If the coalition failed to put the president on the table The pipes of the most crucial laws for her, it did not gain a favorable resident of the alleged large Palace.
Trzaskowski was not helped by the activity of his organization – Przemysław Witka from "what harm to promise", Kinga Gajewskia and potatoes in DPS, Witold Zembachinski and his performance during the "debate" in the Republic and last but not least, Donald Tusk in Polsata News, upset, tense and citing the words known from the loud speeches of the freak fighter Jack Muranski. All this over a fewer days!
What about the staff?
It would seem that Rafał Trzaskowski's run matched the image of the ruling coalition as it was deprived of imagination and program. There was more encouragement to smiles, shouts about unity and talking about the government of Trzaskowski in Warsaw than the real content and product for which voters would stand in line in front of the polling stations until late night hours.
It was notable erstwhile Rafał Trzaskowski had a problem answering the question of Sławomir Mentzen during their discussion with the Confederate policy in Toruń, concerning what laws are his precedence and the adoption of which laws will be possible thanks to his win.
Tomasz Sekielski revealed after the election that to the staff of an KO candidate, composed exclusively of politicians, experts were eager to help, besides for free. In response, they heard that no 1 from the staff has time to meet them and can evidence a few-minute video with advice.
Joanna Mucha from Poland 2050 compiled an approach to elections between the PiS and KO candidate staff in social media. It follows that PiS approached the elections in a very analytical way – first, with the aid of research, he outlined the characteristics of the desired candidate, conducted casting, and then made the direction of campaigning and individual actions dependent on the results of subsequent strategical analyses. This was not the case in the case of Rafał Trzaskowski's staff, whose own members were to put above expert analyses.
It was besides a mistake for the KO staff to hold a debate in Koński, which was intended to "close" the polarization between the 2 largest candidates, and in fact allowed "to come out" and gain any oxygen for the others. Rafał Trzaskowski, despite the preparations, did not look very well on her, as in most debates, but for the 1 organized by Super Express.
Channel Zero and No Doubts From the Right
A very crucial influence on the form of the election run and the consequence of the election was established by Krzysztof Stanowski's Zero Channel, which in fresh weeks has been beating views records. On the 1 hand, the task introduced fresh quality to the Polish media – a long, three-hour conversation with each of the candidates, during which participants could call the studio and interesting debates on the most crucial issues.
On the another hand, on the another hand, Channel Zero became, mainly thanks to the programs of the 2 biggest channel stars – Krzysztof Stanowski and Robert Mazurek, opposition and centre-right medium. The sharpness of criticism and harsh humour is directed there most frequently in the ruling, and the possible scandals and problems of opposition politicians are either soaped or silenced.
Given the multimillion-dollar ratings of Channel Zero and the about 360 000 votes of Karol Nawrocki's lead over Rafał Trzaskowski at the finish line of the presidential race, it can be concluded that the net could change the course of these elections.
The consequence was besides greatly influenced by the behaviour of right-wing candidates – Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun. They won a full of about 20% of the votes. However, this fact alone is not decisive, but what they did to it. Grzegorz Braun, despite strong objections to the policy of the Law and Justice in times of the epidemic covid-19 straight supported Karol Nawrocki.
Not directly, but de facto Sławomir Mentzen besides supported Karol Nawrocki. He encouraged his voters from the 1st circular to go to the elections, saying that he saw no reason to vote for Rafał Trzaskowski and kindly presenting his conversation with Karol Nawrocki in Toruń he supported the PiS candidate, even despite beer drunk with Trzaskowski and Radosław Sikorski in his pub.
There were fewer references in this text to Karol Nawrocki, his qualities, flaws, faults and at least controversial past. For 1 reason. They didn't substance much. PiS had to present a candidate who would not discourage right-wing voters from outside the PiS and would be able to cut off from the regulation of Jarosław Kaczyński's party. And he did.
