What is the consequence of the parliamentary elections in Georgia? What should we know about the authoritarian evolution of the governing organization of Georgian Dreams? What function did the Russian war in Ukraine play in politics in Georgia? And what should the European Union do about fresh developments in Georgia?
Leszek Jażdżewski (Fundacja Liberte!) talks to Alexander Zibzibadze, president and founder of the youth education organization Georgia’s Future Academy (GFA). His activity in the GFA, as well as in the renowned youth network Franklin Club played a key function in organising 2 large-scale protests against the alleged "Russian abroad Agents Act" in March 2023 and in April-June 2024. After the protests, he was 1 of the initiators of the creation of the “My Vote for the EU” coalition (I am voting for the European Union), Georgia's largest parliamentary election reflection mission in 2024, bringing together over 20 leading NGOs. After the protests Alexander besides became a leader of civilian society and commentator for national and global media.
LJ: The October elections in Georgia ended with the triumph of a organization that has ruled for over a decade, Georgian Dream (GD). Consequently, opposition parties accused the ruling organization of stealing elections and it appears that observers share this view. These were not insignificant incidents, but alternatively serious actions on behalf of Georgian Dreams to change the result of the election. Does this mean that the current government is illegal?
Alexander Zibzibadze (AZ): Usually erstwhile we talk about electoral manipulation and falsification of elections, especially with respect to Georgia, we divide these actions into 2 parts. The first part concerns all manipulations that take place before election day. The second is already on election day.
With respect to irregularities before election day, the standard approach is based on the usage of administrative resources to mobilise voters. For example, the government may require all civilian servants and their families to vote for the ruling party. Moreover, erstwhile these people are in polling stations, they are required to take a photograph of the ballot card with their telephone and may later be forced to show it as evidence. Otherwise, they may lose their jobs in the future. There are already respective confirmed cases of people who were released after the election due to the fact that they could not supply specified evidence (because they voted for the opposition).
The same applies to people who are dependent on the government due to different social benefits. They are besides required to supply evidence of a government vote. That's 1 of the strategies.
Sometimes the government can besides usage unusual or crazy mechanisms to accomplish the desired result. For example, in the case of families who have relatives in prison, if the authorities mobilize adequate voters for the ruling party, members of their families will be pardoned. This was the case for 1 of my colleagues whose household associate is in prison – his household was asked to collect 200 votes, and if they succeeded, their comparative would have been released 3 years before the end of the sentence. specified manipulations besides happen.
This year, the GD organization besides invented a fresh mechanics – confiscating IDs in advance. As a result, safety services that confiscated their identity papers turned to people who were known to be inclined to vote for the opposition – and without an identity card, they could not be voted in Georgia.
In addition, we have besides seen a number of different tactics of intimidation, manipulation, and sometimes even buying votes. All of this usually happens before election day. In Georgia, we are utilized to it. It's average for us.
The second part of the strategy takes place on the very day of the election, which this year fell on 26 October. What we could observe on election day revealed an unprecedented scale of manipulation and forgery that we had never seen in Georgia before – at least since 2003 erstwhile the Rose Revolution took place.
We have observed dozens of cases where the same people voted at different polling stations, people voted without IDs or voted alternatively of others. Most likely these were individual evidence confiscated by opposition voters or individuals who randomly voted for individual else.
However, an even more crucial and apparent violation which occurred on election day afraid the secretarial nature of the vote. The fresh electoral strategy that was introduced in Georgia has introduced digital machines counting votes that we have not utilized before. The ballot was constructed in specified a way that opposition parties were at the top of the card and GD candidates at the bottom. As a result, during the vote, it was essential to mark with a marker the window at the organization to be voted for, which made it possible for everyone at the polling station to see who was voted for on the basis of the voting card agreement – and whether or not the government was voted for.
Voting secrecy is 1 of the main electoral rules, so it is simply a very crucial issue. This was peculiarly visible in agrarian areas and in tiny towns in Georgia, where people are very delicate to the secrecy of their voice - which was fundamentally affected by 90% of Georgia's citizens. As a result, many people were simply intimidated and consequently voted for the government due to the fact that they thought their voice would not be secret.
Moreover, we have besides observed the alleged "carousel vote" erstwhile people decision from 1 election to another, voting many times or voting alternatively of the other. There have even been cases of mass casting of ballot cards into the polls – 1 of our observers recorded a video on which individual in Marneula (a divider of the cultural minorities of the Azerbaijani) pushed dozens of ballot cards into the ballot box.
The scale of specified electoral manipulation is unprecedented for Georgia, as so far most of the forgery and manipulation took place before election day. This time, according to statistical analyses carried out at polling stations on election day, comparing them to erstwhile years, there have been amazing irregularities. For example, in 1 of the districts in the last election the government organization received 47% of all votes, and this time it reportedly gained 72%. Basically, all organisations (Georgian NGOs and opposition parties, as well as the OSCE, the global Republican Institute, the National Democratic Institute and another global organisations) who looked into the polls clearly stated that specified election results could not have been achieved if the vote had been conducted freely and honestly.
LJ: Given that it seems that electoral fraud has occurred, why have the OSCE or another organisations clearly not called them that?
AZ: What the Georgian government is truly good at is that it does not work like most authoritarian regimes. The authorities do not claim that 70% or 80% of the votes were obtained in favour of the ruling party. Meanwhile, in Belarus, Lukashenko always utilized to say that he received 80% or 90% of the vote. In Russia, Putin always gains allegedly more than 70%, as it believes that this is simply a number to show to gain support for its governments. In the case of Georgian Dreams, 53% was the authoritative consequence that was announced.
The second issue is the link between the Georgian State and the Western institutions. Basically, everyone refrained from calling elections false, but nobody called them free and honest. The European Union and the United States are demanding an investigation by impartial global actors. However, Georgian Dreams refuse to comply.
Meanwhile, erstwhile the OSCE issued its first message the day after the election, on October 27, much evidence was inactive being gathered. We spent the last fewer months collecting all the evidence and sending it to all our partners, which was a very crucial process due to the fact that it took a long time to process all the films, photos, protocols and observations. In many cases, we had to mention the case to court.
LJ: What's next? Is there a script in which these elections can be repeated or declared void? Or will Georgian Dream stay in power?
AZ: 3 of the 4 opposition coalition parties have already withdrawn their letters. Another 1 just did, too. Georgia is now entering a period of long-term political crisis. For the first time in the past of our country we will have a one-party parliament. Since independence, we have always had at least 2 or 3 political parties in the parliament. Now GD is alone in parliament.
Because the Georgian Dream organization is trying to consolidate its power, it works very quickly. A fresh cabinet has already been established and 4 of the 13 ministries' programmes have been discussed by Parliament in little than 1 day. The ruling organization besides announced that the presidential election would be held on 14 December, meaning that the fresh president would besides be elected by the end of the year.
Election results are presently being questioned. Our president and civilian society organisations appealed to the Constitutional Court due to the fact that the Georgian constitution clearly states that Parliament should not meet if the mandates of more than 1 3rd of Members are questioned in courts. At the moment, all 150 Members are being questioned, and yet the government has continued to lead the first session of Parliament, seeking to consolidate its power by the end of the year.
If the opposition fails to enter parliament, this will lead to the creation of a one-party parliament. In specified a situation, the opposition will most likely effort to make certain that an global investigation is carried out. Should an global investigation come to the same conclusion as Georgian NGOs – that elections were rigged and do not represent Georgian will – this would put force on Georgian Dreams to hold early elections. That's most likely the point.
However, it is besides very crucial that early elections be held by the reformed Central Election Commission. Currently, in Georgia, only the ruling organization appoints those who hold elections, which makes it a very biased process. Moreover, due to all electoral falsities and irregularities in this year's trial, there is no public assurance in the electoral commission. Therefore, of course, it requires any kind of reform, but it is inactive hard to say what kind of improvement should take place or who should carry out these elections. Nevertheless, before the fresh elections are held, if we want them to be free and fair, we must definitely change the people who carry them out.
Meanwhile, protests do not happen on as large a scale as in the spring erstwhile we protested the alleged Russian abroad Agents Act. This is understandable due to the fact that many people are already frustrated. In the spring, we protested for 2 months, all day, all the time. Then many people hoped that elections would be a process that would lead to change.
Now, as the protests did not bring any changes in the spring and the elections were rigged, it is not amazing that people request any time to get utilized to this fresh reality and to realize the situation better. Nevertheless, protests continue, which is very crucial due to the fact that it puts force on the Georgian governing party.
LJ: How did the Russian war in Ukraine affect the context of the elections in Georgia? And what is Georgian Dream's attitude to democracy?
AZ: At the moment, even Armenia is more democratic than Georgia, which is rather strange. In 2015-2017, erstwhile we attended various conferences and meetings in Brussels and Washington, we always asked our European colleagues (especially erstwhile discussing the east Partnership) if it was possible for Georgia to be discussed separately, without Ukraine and Moldova. The reason for this was that, as Georgians, we always felt that Ukraine and Moldova were kind of braking our European integration.
Georgia has carried out a number of organization reforms and has been 1 step further than these 2 countries, especially in dealing with corruption and another issues. But now the situation has completely changed – and the Russian war in Ukraine had a lot to do with it.
Georgian Dream's abroad policy was based on trying to sit on 2 stools at the same time – 1 stool is Western and European integration, the another being Russia. However, after the start of the war in Ukraine, while the EU and the Western planet mostly tried to distance themselves from Russia as much as possible, for the Georgian dream organization to proceed sitting on these 2 stools at the same time became impossible, as they would yet fall off them.
Georgia has never joined any sanctions against Russia. We had many occasions during the war to yet get the defensive weapons Georgia truly needed to defend ourselves from possible Russian aggression, and which our western partners did not supply us with before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United States and Europe became more ready to discuss the transportation of various types of defence weapons to Georgia. However, Georgian Dream did not want to anger Russia, so as a consequence it refused to receive any defensive weapons.
There is besides ample evidence that Georgia was utilized to aid Russians circumvent the sanctions imposed on them. For example, exports of cars from Georgia to Russia increased importantly and stopped only after the intervention of Europe and the United States. However, we are now exporting all these cars to Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, from where all the parts sanctioned by Western countries go to Russia anyway.
The war in Ukraine played an crucial function in Georgian Dream strategy. As a result, the organization began to become increasingly authoritarian, trying to destruct the alleged "island of freedom" in Georgia. A crusade was launched against the media, which were critical of the parties and improved the censorship mechanism. The Russian abroad Agents Act (which resembled the Act adopted in 2012 in Russia) was besides adopted, which will become full applicable from 1 January and which will virtually prevent most Georgian civilian society organisations from operating in our country.
Furthermore, Georgian Dreams has already announced that it plans to apply to the Constitutional Court for the illegalisation of all opposition parties in Georgia, which is typically an authoritative move. We already respect Georgia as electoral autocracy, which is very disturbing to many of us due to the fact that there are no independent institutions left in the country (except the President).
LJ: What should be the future strategy of the European Union towards Georgia? What will the upcoming presidential election bring?
AZ: As for the presidential election, for the first time in Georgia's history, the Georgian Dream organization has changed its constitution and now the president is no longer elected by the nation. For the first time it is an electoral college – consisting of parliament and local councillors – will elect the President. Moreover, the GD organization has a crucial majority in parliament, which means that it will be able to choose anyone.
As far as the opposition strategy is concerned, it should not, above all, legitimise the current parliament. At the moment, it appears that no of the opposition parties will be given a mandate. Secondly, force on the government must proceed to apply. Therefore, the current political crisis requires cooperation with our Western partners, but also, and even above all, the holding of protests in Georgia. Consequently, the government should proceed to feel force from opposition and civilian society through mass protests. The aim is for the government to agree to hold early elections.
With respect to our Western partners, it seems that the possible of further integration of Georgia with the European Union and NATO is now closed. There are presently many discussions on the suspension of candidate position for Georgia or possible Schengen membership. However, punishing average Georgians is not the best solution.
What the West should do together is, above all, consider how Georgia views and whether Georgia can be a strategical partner for Europe based on values. The best way to decision forward is to proceed a targeted strategy of sanctions – which the United States has already introduced against any Georgian officials, including any Georgian judges, as well as the head and deputy chief of police and many parliamentarians. The European Union should besides join the Americans in this effort due to the fact that it seems that the people who have forged elections in Georgia are inactive enjoying all their freedoms and their families proceed to travel freely to Europe, store and enjoy all the privileges and benefits of Western civilization. At the same time, they proceed to tell Georgians that the West is angry, that they are trying to drag Georgia into the war with Russia and spread another types of groundless propaganda.
It has become clear that further integration is not possible if the question of falsification of elections and authoritarian laws is not adequately resolved. The European Union and the United States must make this very clear in their statements in order not to leave area for explanation by our government, which will effort to interpret it in its favour.
The West should besides analyse Georgia's improvement aid and redirect it to strengthening civilian society, pro-democracy and pro-European activist groups, and halt supporting the Georgian Dream regime, which frequently uses these funds to deal with democratic activists (for example, Georgian safety forces have been trained with funds granted by the USAID).
Furthermore, both the United States and the EU should have a clear and firm position on the sanctions imposed and what they anticipate from the Georgian government. Communication on this issue should clearly focus on withdrawing support for the undemocratic government and expanding support for pro-democracy groups. This should hopefully lead to early elections at any point.
This podcast was produced by the European Liberal Forum in collaboration with the Movieno Liberal Social and the Liberté Foundation!, with the financial support of the European Parliament. Neither the European Parliament nor the European Liberal Forum are liable for the content of the podcast nor for any way of utilizing it.
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Dr. Olga Łabendowicz translated from English
Read English at 4liberty.eu
