The planet is about to enter a fresh "depopulation age". And of his own free will, destroying his family. Everything will change, but not necessarily the progressing depopulation must be wrong," writes Nicholas Eberstadt, prof. of political economics associated with the American Enterprise Institute.
In the latest edition of the November-December magazine "Foreign Affairs", prof. Eberstadt begins with a grim record: "Although fewer see it yet, people are on their way to entering the fresh era of history. Let's call it age of depopulation. For the first time since the black death in the 14th century, the population of the planet will shrink. But while the last implosion was caused by a deadly illness carried by fleas, the coming will be entirely caused by human choices."
In an article entitled “The Age of Depopulation”, the author analyses demographic trends worldwide in detail, indicating that depopulation affects all continent and almost all countries. "Net mortality – erstwhile society experiences more deaths than births – will besides become a fresh norm", he points out.
"People have no collective memory of depopulation. The full population in the planet has late fallen about 700 years ago, following smoke plague, which ravaged most of Eurasia. Over the next 7 centuries, the planet population has grown almost 20 times. And in the last century, the human population has quadrupled. The fresh global depopulation was reversed by procreative force erstwhile the black death came to an end. This time, deficiency of procreative force is the origin of population decline, which is the first specified case in the past of the species," we read.
So far, government fertility programs in any countries have not produced the desired results. The level of substitutability of generations has not been reached. Governments must prepare for less workers, entrepreneurs and innovators and for more dependants and help.
Depopulation means "a hard fresh context" for development. Many decision-makers and thinkers, and in general "most people are incapable to grasp the coming changes or imagine how a prolonged depopulation will change societies, economies and policies of force."
By giving the UN Population Department data on the decline in fertility, the author pointed out an amazing trend in population decline since 2015 and in any countries since 2021.
"In fresh years, the fall in births not only continued, but besides seemed to accelerate" - he writes. "According to the UNPD in 2019, on the eve of COVID-19, at least 2 thirds of the world's population lived in countries below generation replacement levels. Economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde claims that the overall global fertility rate may have fallen below the replacement level since then. Both rich and mediocre countries have witnessed record, stunning fertility breakdowns," we read.
The East Asian region fell into depopulation in 2021. The population of China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan was shrinking at an alarming rate. "By 2023, the fertility rate in Japan was 40 percent lower than the replacement capacity, in China more than 50 percent lower than the replacement capacity, in Taiwan nearly 60 percent lower than the replacement capacity, and in South Korea as much as 65 percent lower than the replacement generation," we read.
This phenomenon is observed in Southeast Asia, where the fertility rate of the full region has fallen below the substitutability level around 2018. Dramatic declines besides engulf Latin America and the Caribbean. "UNPD calculated overall fertility for the region in 2024 as 1.8 births per woman". Costa Rican demographer Luis Rosero-Bixby has been writing about a "wright" drop in birth rate in the region since 2015. In his country, the full fertility rate fell to 1.2 births per woman. Low rates have Cuba (approximately 1.1 births per female and deaths since 2019 exceed births), Uruguay (only 1.3 births and as in Cuba the number of deaths exceeded births), Chile (about 1.1 births per woman), etc. The main cities of Latin America are depopulating, including Bogota and Mexico.
Fertility below replacement reached North Africa and the mediate East, although the demographers long assumed that muslim religion was a bastion against fast declines in fertility. Iran, Tunisia, Turkey and another countries are depopulating.
The global fertility rate has fallen rapidly since the 1960s demographic detonation besides in Europe. 27 countries of the current European Union are about 30 percent below the level of replacement of generations, and Poland has 1 of the lowest birth rates. In 2023, only 3.7 million children were born across the EU compared to 6.8 million in 1964.
"Last year France recorded less births than in 1806, the year in which Napoleon won the conflict of Jena; Italy recorded the least births since its unification in 1861; and Spain at least since 1859, erstwhile it began collecting contemporary birth data. Poland has recorded the lowest births since planet War II.; like Germany. The EU has been a net mortality region since 2012, with 4 deaths per 3 births in 2022. The UNPD recognised 2019 as the highest year for the population of Europe and estimated that in 2020 the continent entered the age of long-term population decline," the prof. points out.
In his opinion, the United States “remains a major exception among developed countries, based on the trend of depopulation. With comparatively advanced fertility levels for a rich country (although well below replacementability: just over 1.6 births per female in 2023) and a steady influx of immigrants the United States showed up American demographic exceptionality. But even in the United States, depopulation is no longer unthinkable. Last year, the Census Office predicted that the U.S. population would highest around 2080 and then start falling steadily."
The global wave of depopulation is theoretically based on Sub-Saharan Africa, where 4.3 births per woman. In fact, there is simply a immense decline, due to the fact that before that, there were 7 children per woman. Since the 1970s, the size of the household in this region has been steadily decreasing.
"UNPD estimated that the replacement threshold for the full planet was about 2.18 births per woman. The average variant forecasts – more or little the median of the projected results – for 2024 indicate that the global fertility will be only 3 percent above substitutability, and the low variant forecasts – the lower end of the projected results – estimation that the planet is already 8 percent below that level. It is possible that the population size has already fallen below the planetary net replacement ratio. However, it is certain that for 1 4th of the planet the population decline is already ongoing, and the remainder of the planet is on the right way to follow in the footsteps of these pioneers," we read.
What are the reasons for this? The author considers that they are hard to pinpoint precisely, but it is assumed that economical growth and material progress, that is, what scientists call "development" or "modernisation", is to a large degree liable for the global decline in birth rate and population decline in general. specified conclusions were drawn on the basis of the convergence of the trend of decline in fertility with the trend of socio-economic growth of the West. In another words, material advancement is to be liable for depopulating the world.
However, this phenomenon is besides observed among poorer countries. Prof. Eberhardt so finds it hard to generalise and adopt 1 permanent set of factors that explain the phenomenon of depopulation. Factors specified as lower baby mortality, greater access to modern contraception, higher education and literacy, increased participation of women in the workforce, changing women's status, as well as many others could have an impact on the current phenomenon. Besides, they are all thoroughly studied by scholars.
He personally leans towards the translation of economist Lanta Pritchett of 1994, which indicated “the strongest national fertility predictor always detected. This decisive origin proved simple, namely: what do women want? Since survey data usually focuses on women's fertility preferences alternatively than their husbands or partners, scientists know much more about women's desire to have children than men. Pritchett has determined that there is an almost unambiguous relation around the planet between national fertility levels and the number of children that women say they want to have. This discovery highlighted the central function of will – the human origin – in fertility patterns," we read.
In addition, the author believes that the origin of the change is simply a “family revolution” that refers to “a escape from marriage” alternatively than just the issue of kid bearing. This phenomenon is observed worldwide. It concerns both rich and mediocre countries, regardless of cultural traditions and values systems.
Late or absent marriages, the spread of non-marital partnerships and temporary relationships, the increase in the number of single households, changes in lifestyles, departure from religion, emphasis on autonomy, self-fulfillment and comfort, negative attitudes towards children – all of this affects the extinction of the human species.
People imitate others in seeking comfort, etc. However, they must besides be aware of the consequences of their choices, due to the fact that "the depopulated future will be much different from the present". The author suggests that, in view of the grim predictions, "only continuous and ever-increasing immigration can halt long-term population decline".
A simplification in the economical possible of the countries is expected. He notes that "decision makers are not ready for the upcoming demographic order".
What the planet is going to do can show the situation in South Korea, which is rapidly depopulating. Current forecasts propose that by 2050 South Korea will have 3 deaths per birth.
"Depopulation will turn the known social and economical rhythms upside down. The societies will gotta adapt their expectations to the fresh reality of less workers, savers, taxpayers, tenants, buyers of homes, entrepreneurs, innovators, inventors and yet consumers and voters. A widespread ageing population and a protracted population decline will reduce economical growth and paralyze welfare systems in rich countries, threatening their prospects for further prosperity."
States will gotta change their patterns of income and consumption, taxation policy, social expenditure, migration, savings, investment, balance budgets, etc.
"In both rich and mediocre countries, the coming wave of ageing can impose an entirely unknown burden on many societies. Although people aged 60 and 70 can live an economically active and financially independent life in the foreseeable future, the same does not apply to those aged 80 or over. Superstars are the fastest increasing group in the world. By 2050 there will be more than children in any countries. The burden of caring for people with dementia will be an increase in costs – human, social and economical – in an ageing and shrinking world," we read.
“This burden will become the more burdensome the families will shrink. The household is simply a fundamental unit of society and is inactive the most essential institution of humanity. Both fast ageing and high, below the replacement fertility are intrinsically linked to the ongoing revolution in the household structure. As household units become smaller and more fragmented, less people are married and the advanced level of voluntary childlessness persists in subsequent countries, families become little and little able to bear the burden on them," adds the author.
"How depopulated societies will cope with this broad withdrawal of the household is not apparent at all". It cannot be expected that strangers will be able to take better care of household members than the family. Neither will the work, as is sometimes claimed.
However, the author believes that even under these hard conditions improvement is possible, but a number of changes request to be made in advance. He criticised the panic of governments, experts, and global institutions, which have threatened overcrowding and shrinking resources since the mediate of the last century. "In retrospect, this panic was bizarrely exaggerated. The alleged demographic detonation was in fact a evidence to the increase in life expectancy through better public wellness and access to healthcare. Despite the tremendous population growth in the last century, the planet is richer and better nourished than always before, and natural resources are more abundant and cheaper (after inflation has been taken into account) than always before," he writes.
Today he believes that lifelong education, migration, the creation of a favourable business climate must be given emphasis, changing the approach to the areas of hazard and opportunities facing society and economy.
"In order to adapt effectively to the depopulated world, countries, businesses and individuals will gotta stress work and savings. There will be a smaller margin of mistake for investment projects, whether public or private, and there will be a increasing wave of request from a increasing consumer or payer pool on which to count. As people live longer and stay healthy aged, they will quit later. Voluntary economical activity in an increasingly old age will make lifelong learning a necessity," he writes.
However, advanced unemployment is expected in shrinking labour-restricted societies due to a deficiency of economical compliance. In his opinion, the labour marketplace will gotta become flexible. “The entry barriers should be reduced by accepting the rotation and fluctuation of jobs that increase dynamics, eliminating age discrimination and not only given the urgent request to increase productivity of the shrinking workforce. To advance growth, countries will request even greater technological advancement and technological innovation".
Prosperity in a depopulated planet is to depend on open economies: free trade in goods, services and finances, in order to counter the constraints that origin declining populations. A flexible migration policy will should be introduced.
"Depopulation will not only change the way governments treat their citizens; it will besides change the way they treat each other". In another words, this will translate into a change in the world's power system.
Countries that will not change their policy direction will "pay the price: first in the form of economical stagnation and then likely to pay for the financial and socio-economic crisis". This could lead to a global economy. The consequences for national safety can besides be enormous.
"The era of depopulation is near. Dramatic ageing and the indeterminate decline of the human population – yet on a global scale – will mark the end of an extraordinary chapter in human past and the beginning of another, most likely no little different than the previous. Depopulation will profoundly transform humanity, most likely in many ways that societies have not yet begun to consider and may not yet understand." However, despite all these changes, the author expressed hope that adapting to them in advance, by planning a fresh policy, their severity could be minimised. Nevertheless, there are inactive many unknowns about how the destiny of the population will turn out and what needs more than “a small ingenuity and adaptability”.
Source: foreignaffairs.com
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