Until recently, no 1 had imagined that Ukraine could face Russia without American weapons, equipment and intelligence. After The White home has announced that it is holding off military aid to Kiev, It can become a reality.
In consequence to this, a high-ranking Ukrainian intelligence authoritative stated that Ukraine would end the last U.S. military supplies most likely within "two or 3 months".
— Then it will be very hard for us,” said the editors of “Financial Times”. — It will not be a complete breakdown, but We will be forced to retreat from certain territories more quickly.
Far-reaching consequences
Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers for the 4th year have been resisting continuous Russian attacks. The suspension of American military aid will have far-reaching consequences for the army — even if European allies partially fill these gaps and supply her with equipment.
Washington announced its decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine 3 days after Donald Trump's quarrel with Volodymyr Zelenski. On Monday, the White home stated that it "holds and verifies" its military assistance to Kiev to guarantee that Ukrainian leaders are "involved" in the peace agreement.
Saul Loeb / AFPVolodymyr Zelenski and Donald Trump in the White House, 28 February 2025.
According to U.S. State Department data, over the last 3 years, US military support for Ukraine amounted to PLN 65.9 billion (261 billion). Although legislature allocated nearly 175 billion dollars (about PLN 694 billion), only a part of this amount went straight to Ukraine. The remainder were intended for another purposes — specified as training Ukrainian soldiers in the United States.
The support was extended — from the supply of artillery and armored vehicles to the transportation of advanced air defence systems, anti-tank mines and long-range missiles. Key to Ukraine, this support besides included the exchange of intelligence — It has not yet been suspended.
— The impact is mostly hard to estimation because There's quite a few American support you don't talk about publically — said Michael Kofman, a military analyst and elder worker of think tank Carnegie Endowment for global Peace.
U.S. Dependency
European allies have intensified their efforts in fresh days to rise funds and acquisition military equipment for Ukraine. However, the continent is inactive struggling to increase the production of weapons, and any key devices only have the United States.
No interceptive missiles for 5 U.S. Patriot systems utilized by Ukraine would be a major blow to the country's defence capabilities. Russia is intensifying attacks utilizing drones and rockets. “Patriot is now the only strategy capable of shooting down Russian ballistic missiles,” said the Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.
If the Ukrainian military were deprived of the most sophisticated air defence system, it would gotta make a hard priority: to defend an airport, a power station or a weapons factory?," said Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst monitoring the war for the Finnish Black Bird group.
While overwhelming Most drones utilized by Ukrainian troops are presently produced in the country, the military continues to usage a wide scope of American weapons and vehicles that require constant maintenance and a steady supply of spare parts.
The shortage of artillery missiles can be partially compensated by European efforts — in 2025, the EU plans to produce up to 2 million artillery missiles.
— The serious consequences of Trump's decision will begin to be seen within a fewer months. They will be linked primarily to Ukraine's ability to execute precise strokes," Kofman said.
Good news for Russia
The multi-guided Himars rocket launchers provided by the US enabled Ukraine to destruct crucial targets specified as command stations and logistics centres in the territory occupied by Russia.
On Monday, the Ukrainian peculiar forces published a movie depicting the attack utilizing this launcher and cluster ammunition that destroyed the modern Russian self-propelled wharf “Malwa”.
NurPhoto / Contributor / Getty ImagesExercises of Ukrainian land forces, 5 February 2025.
— We have no good substitute for these vehicles," said Pawlo Cornery, Ukrainian military analyst and co-founder of the Reactive Post, an organization supporting Ukrainian artillery units.
The Himars launchers besides enabled Ukraine to usage long-range ATACMS missiles to fire targets in Russia, even 300 km away. The cornerman said Kiev has British and French long-range missiles Storm Shadow and Scalp, “but they are not the same, they are much slower and easier to intercept”.
Without American support, “it will not break down, but Russia will proceed to decision forward”, said the Corner.
Searched alternative
However, the biggest harm to the units fighting on the front line in Ukraine would have been the exclusion of the Starlink strategy Elona Muska. Thanks to the velocity and reliability it is widely utilized by Ukrainian armed forces.
‘If Starlink is disabled, There will be problems immediately. Infantry in defensive ground, intelligence, drone crews and artillery, brigade and battalion command... Everyone uses Starlink," wrote Egor Firsow, a erstwhile Ukrainian MP, presently serving in the military at the end of February.
While Ukrainian forces can and usage radio communication, the decisions on the battlefield mostly depend on the flow of video and photos, which requires a permanent broadband connection.
— We're working on an alternative. said an officer serving in the brigade in the northeast of the country. “We are fighting in the Kursk region and Starlink is not there.
Washington's decision to suspend aid comes as Ukraine accelerates efforts to make its own potential.
— A year ago, I said that we had to train here in Ukraine in case the United States wanted to disappear," said Serhii Prytula, the head of 1 of the largest Ukrainian military fundraising organizations.
— We are very grateful for all the aid the US has given Ukraine, but we must take care of ourselves, make our own defence manufacture with our European partners," he said a fewer hours before Washington announced a decision to suspend military support for Ukraine.
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