Written by Ksawery Stawiński, Adam Jankowski

January first half:

01.01 Curly cock, friendship’

At 6 a.m. Polish time expired contract about the gas transmission concluded 5 years ago between Kiev and Moscow. Gazprom and Naftohaz stopped gas transmission through Ukraine. After Nord Stream 1 and 2 and the Jamaican gas pipeline, relationship gas pipeline became the 4th major transit way of natural gas from Russia to Europe, which was out of usage due to the ongoing war. Ukraine did not break the agreement with Gazprom earlier due to the fact that specified a decision would undermine its position as a reliable business partner. Besides, despite the ongoing war, Kiev made money on gas transit. Reduced sales of energy resources will cost Moscow 5 billions dollars a year. The gas transported by Ukraine was supplied by Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Austria, Italy, Moldova, Hungary and indirectly Slovenia and Croatia. All these countries must bear the consequences of the decision taken by Kiev. However, Moldova, Slovakia and Hungary are the most affected by the change.

Robert Fico – Prime Minister Slovakia – powerfully opposes the decision made by Ukraine. As part of his response, he threatened to cease power supply, aid to Ukrainian refugees in Slovakia and humanitarian aid in Ukraine. Bratislava would lose EUR 500 million in gross all year, which was generated by the transmission of Russian gas further into Europe. If Slovakia had actually cut off the flow of electricity to Ukraine, Poland would have become the fresh contractor of Kiev. Robert Fico held in December visit in Moscow, where he met Putin, with whom he talked about the energy problems of his country. It is the 3rd EU politician to visit Moscow since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. In addition to him, Viktor Orban and Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer visited Russia.

Viktor Orban – Prime Minister of Hungary – exercises pressure to the EU to force Ukraine to resume the transit of natural material from Russia. If this request is not met, Hungary will veto sanctions imposed by the EU on Russia, which must be re-accepted by all associate States all six months. Hungary may gotta decide on purchase gas from Bulgaria and Romania, which in turn buy it from Turkey. The Russian gas sent to Ankara with the aid of gas pipelines Turkish Stream and Blue Stream.

The most severe change in Russian gas transit can feel Moldova and Transnistria. On the 1 hand, Transnistria was subsidised by Russia with free gas, which combined with inexpensive labour in the region enabled it to develop. On the another hand, this dependence totally depended on the Kremlin. Moldovan besides used from the agreement between Tiraspol and Moscow. The MGRES power plant, owned by Transnistria, 80% covered Moldova's electricity demand.

If the authorities in Chisinau do not take fast action, Transnistria may be rapidly destabilised and a tiny republic will gotta face a immense humanitarian crisis. Despite these problems, the situation can paradoxically contribute to

unification Moldova and Transnistria. abrupt cut off from gas will deprive Russia of the lion, which Tyraspol has controlled so far. Ukraine and Moldova have expressed their willingness to aid supply Transnistria with energy resources. There may be an chance to control the donor of energy subsidies from Moscow to Brussels, which would let the West to displace Kremlin's influence from the republic and safe its confederate border at a low cost.

01.01. What is going on in the Kursy Circuit?

Ukraine welcomed the fresh year with optimistic information. General Syrski, commander of Ukrainian troops, published in fresh Year on Telegram message About the situation on the Kurdish Front. The losses of the Russian side were to be 38,000 soldiers. In fresh years fivemonths 15,000 enemy soldiers were wounded and 23,000 killed. In addition, the operation redirects Russian army resources from another fronts to Kursk, thus relieving Ukrainian soldiers fighting in the east of the country. Prisoners who were captured as part of this operation besides enabled Kiev to carry out another exchange of prisoners, resulting in 189 soldiers returning to Ukraine. Page Russian claims that since the beginning of the operation, she has eliminated 49010 Ukrainian troops. Real data is hard to determine. BBC readThat Russian casualties are closer to 10,000 soldiers, of which nearly 40% are Korean.

Struggles in Kursk proceed and are fierce. According to Associated Press – the Russian side has gathered 50,000 soldiers from the beginning of the invasion to defend the region. Many of them stay thrown to the Kursk circuit from another parts of the front and from the royal circuit. They managed to capture over 40% of the previously lost territory. Nevertheless, Ukrainians do not intend to retreat from their positions, even in the face of the advanced cost of maintaining them, fearing the collapse of the front. The Kiev Army is slow pushed out of Russia. Ukraine is not limited to defensive actions – it besides conducts occasional counterattacks for Russian positions, as well as the January 5. From the border areas of the Kursk and Bielgorod regions of Moscow Evacuated About 200,000 citizens.

The depreciation of the ruble in November was mostly liable for the announcement of US sanctions against Gazprombank. The Central Bank of Russia then announced the suspension of abroad currency purchases. Nine. January the sharpening has been lifted. But ruble problems don't end there. On January 7, the US introduced another package of sanctions, this time against Russia's energy sector. Restrictions were imposed on Gazprom Nieft and Surgutnieftiegaz, as well as on 183 ships called "shadow floats" and financial institutions operating these companies. As reported PAP, "restrictions are intended to prevent the acquisition of Russian oil and gas from major companies for dollars". The policy introduced inactive during Joe Biden's office has large possible to further weaken the ruble. The fall in the Russian currency's value against the dollar is peculiarly crucial due to the fact that many Russians store savings in USD/doler.

07.01. Russia and the nipponese case

While the US and the EU announce further sanctions on Russia, Japan besides imposes restrictions on trade with Moscow. This is the consequence to the escalation of the conflict that occurred after the North Korean soldiers joined the Russian side in the Kursk Oblast. Package sanctions announced by Tokyo includes a number of individuals and organizations not only of Russia, but besides of North Korea and China. As of January 23, Japan has stopped exporting to Russia over 335 different kinds of goods.

At the beginning of the period Financial Times he published papers containing information on Russia's possible conflict with NATO and targets in Japan and South Korea that the Kremlin could attack if the war broke out. More than 160 objects were identified as possible points of impact of Moscow. In the meantime, Tokyo tightens its cooperation with Brussels. The first of January came into force contract defending and reinforcing Japan's cooperation with the European Union. The reason for the agreement is the increasing interdependence between Europe and Indo-Pacific and the overlapping safety interests of signatories. Quoting president of the Russian Federation: ‘Regional conflict in Ukraine has become global’.

13.01 Koreans on the Front

For the Kurdish Circuit sent 11,000 North Korean soldiers. Their losses are high, estimated at approximately 4 thousand, which represents 40% of the full losses of the Russian side on this front section. Trained first in distant parts of Russia, even before they were brought into battle, were left specified by the Minister of abroad Affairs of Ukraine ,,,gun meat’ Putin. According to Kyryło Budanov – Head of Intelligence of Ukraine, the first Korean units were sent to the Kursk region in November. The full contingent appeared at the front in December. Kim's soldiers turned out to be far more valuable support for the Russian army than was assumed. It is thanks to their aid that Ukrainians now control only 60% of the previously occupied territory. Kiev reported about their good training and advanced marksmanship – they are effective in shooting down Ukrainian drones with firearm fire. Thanks.

Kim's totalitarian indoctrination are stress-resistant and well motivated to fight. Putin did good purchase.

But the Koreans are not perfect either. According to reports from the Ukrainian side, in fresh Year, drunk Asians took an active part in the fighting. It is to be the consequence of a falling morale on the Russian side. However, drunkenness is not Kim's only sin. How reported Gideon Rachman – editor of the Financial Times abroad Affairs Department, Korean soldiers are addicted to pornography, to which they do not have access in their native country. The Pentagon is involved. A spokesperson for the Department of defence acknowledged that he was incapable to verify “no online habits of North Koreans or their virtual “over-programme” activities”. Reports of Kim's soldiers' deviance are most likely another example of the information war between Kiev and Moscow. In particular, alcoholism In war, it is not a fresh phenomenon and is not limited to the organization alone Russian.

January 2nd half

17.01 Russia's cooperation with Iran

On 17 January 2025, a strategical cooperation agreement between Russia and Iran was signed in Moscow. The paper was signed by the presidents of both countries: Vladimir Putin and Masud Pezeszkian. The agreement provides for enhanced cooperation in the field of safety and defence, including consultations on military threats and the organisation of joint military manoeuvres within and outside both countries. At a joint press conference, president Putin reported talks about Russian gas supplies to Iran. He pointed out that initially the supply volume could be up to 2 billion cubic meters per year, with the anticipation of expanding to 55 billion cubic meters in the future. president Pezeszkian added that both sides inactive have any method issues to resolve. In addition, president Putin announced that Russia is considering building fresh blocks in Iranian atomic power plants, stressing that 1 of them is already successfully operating. The agreement is another step in deepening cooperation between Moscow and Tehran, especially in the context of erstwhile joint military exercises and deliveries of Iranian drones to Russia.

30.01 improvement of the Russian Federation's armed forces

In late January 2025, Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) revealed Russia's plans to importantly strengthen the armed forces. According to this information, in order to supplement the losses suffered during the conflict with Ukraine, Russia intends to mobilise at least 280 000 fresh soldiers in 2025. peculiar attention is paid to the alleged "special quota" which is expected to number around 126 000 people. Half of this quota is to be made up of persons with legal problems, including prisoners with sentences, persons with

subject to investigations and persons with credit arrears. The plan is to mobilise an average of 10,000 people from this group per month. In the context of these reports, the president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenski during the planet economical Forum in Davos stressed the request to deploy at least 200 000 peacekeepers from European countries in Ukraine. In his opinion, specified a number is essential in order to prevent Russia's fresh aggression after a possible ceasefire agreement has been concluded. Zelenski argued that assuming the Russian armed forces had 1.5 million soldiers, and the Ukrainian half of that number, the presence of so many peacekeepers is simply a minimum request for stability. Additionally, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine estimated that the losses of Russian troops in the conflict with Ukraine were about 835 1000 killed and wounded soldiers. This information raises concerns and indicates further escalation of war activities and possible threats to Russia's mobilization plans.