Written by: Jakub Pelc, Ksawery Stawiński, Adam Jankowski
09.10 Attack of Ukrainian drones in the Krasnodar Country and the Brian region
The General Staff of Ukraine announced that the Ukrainian military struck a base storing Iranian Shahed drones, close the village of Oktyabrsky in the Russian Krasnodarsk Country. Tehran provided Moscow with thousands of Shahedod-type kamikaze drones the beginning of a full-scale war. Russia attacked Ukraine with over 1,300 specified drones in September, firing them regularly throughout the month. There were about 400 suicide drones stored in the shelled Russian base. The attack was carried out by Ukrainian Navy and Ukraine safety Service (SBU) units. The later detonation was registered after the attack, said the General Staff. "The demolition of Shahed drone base will importantly reduce the ability of Russian occupiers to terrorize civilians in Ukrainian cities and villages," added the General Staff. The Ukrainian military besides reported that on the night of 9 October, a successful attack took place utilizing a drone to store North Korean ammunition in the Brain region. "According to available information, rocket missiles and artillery weapons, including those originating in North Korea, as well as guided aerial bombs, were stored in storage."
10.10 Kadyrov's threats to Russian Senators in the context of an attack on Wildberries headquarters
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov declared a "bloody war" against 3 national legislators from neighboring republics of the North Caucasus in his first comments in the context of the shooting last period in front of the Moscow office of the largest Russian online store Wildberries. Kadyrov promised to aid Wladislaw Bakalchuk, erstwhile husband of Wildberries General Tatiana Kim the richest female in Russia in returning to matrimony and blocking the merger of their giant e-commerce with a smaller group of outside advertising Russ. The household and business dispute intensified last month, erstwhile Bakalczuk led a group of men to the Moscow offices of Wildberries and allegedly attempted to enter the building by force. 2 bodyguards, who were cultural Ingushes, were killed in the shooting, and against Bakalczuk and respective another cultural Chechens active in the incidental many charges were made, including murder. According to an independent North Caucasian news service, Fortanga Kadyrov claimed that Russian Senator Sulejman Kerimov and MPs to the State Duma Bekhan Barakhoyev and Rizvan Kurbanov “take over” Wildberrys from Tatiana Kim and commissioned his assassination. "I officially declare bloody revenge against Bekhan Barakhoyev, Suleiman Kerimov and Rizvan Kurbanov," said Kadyrov at a gathering with elder officials, according to the translation of Fortanga from Chechen language. The 3 legislators come from Dagestan and Ingushetia, 2 Russian republics adjacent to Chechnya. Kadyrov, in a little aggressive speech in a Russian-language post, mentioned that he was disgusted by the attempts to “set all nations against himself in interior disputes.” Russian business media describe the merger of Wildberries-Russ in the fresh RVB company as a hidden dispute between Kadyrov and the influential Senator-billionaire Kerimov. The merger may besides be part of the Russian war-based redistribution of business assets, which was benefited by individuals associated with the Kremlin. Wildberries and Russ obtained the approval of president Vladimir Putin and claim that the merger will make a fresh financial, media and retail giant that can compete with Western technological giants and stimulate the Russian economy.
11.10 Russian Army Transfer to the Kurd Region
The Chief Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander of Syria announced that Ukraine had information about about 50,000 Russian soldiers who were transported to the Kursk circuit from another parts of the front and the royal circuit. Ukraine launched an offensive in the Kursk Oblast in early August, Kiev's military took about 1,300 square kilometres. Representatives of the Ukrainian authorities believe that 1 of the key objectives of the operation was to distract Russian forces from the remaining, overburdened fighting part of the front. Although Ukrainian forces proceed to keep Russian territory in the Kursk Oblast, the Russian offensive continues in the east of Ukraine. Kiev's troops were late forced to retreat from Wuhledar city in the south of the Donetsk region, which for 2 years resisted Russian attacks. dense fights besides take place in Chasiv Jara and Toreck in the Donetsk Oblast, and Russian troops are approaching the key logistics hub in Pokrowsk. Meanwhile, Russia tries to displace Ukrainian troops from its territory in the Kursk region, attacking Ukrainian forces from the western part of the break-in. High-ranking American military say that Ukrainian forces should be able to keep occupied territory in the Russian Kursk Oblast for respective months if the trend of regular supply flows from NATO states is maintained.
16.10 Wishlist Zelenski
October 16 president of Ukraine presented A five-point plan to accomplish peace:
1 – NATO accession (unconditional and immediate)
2 – obtaining approval to attack inside Russia
3 — Provision of deterrence (non-nuclear) to Ukraine
4 — Joint mining projects in Ukraine concluded with Western partners
5 – After the war, replacing any of the American troops stationed in Europe with Ukrainians
Although it presents steps that would actually aid Ukraine accomplish victory, it does not take into account political realities in the West. Very doubtful that any of the points would be realised.
1 – any NATO states do not want to see Ukraine in the Alliance.
2 The Germans do not want to let attacks inside Russia.
3 “The West has a problem with providing rudimentary assistance to Ukraine does not decide to intensify it suddenly.
4 – Joint business in Ukraine may be a way to make the West dependent on the safety of natural materials extraction in Ukraine, and so besides on its subjectivity. That would impose obligations that the West does not want to bear.
5 – From the position of east Flanka, no 1 can replace US soldiers due to the fact that they are the guarantor of a possible war by Americans.
The President's message should be complemented by his speech in Brussels, where he gave his plan a broader context. Zelenski told European allies that in conversation with Trumpstated – "Or Ukraine will have a atomic weapon that will service as its protection, or must be part of any larger alliance. Outside NATO, specified an alliance does not exist.” In fact, this means that either Western partners agree to his plan, or Ukraine will get its own atomic weapon.
It is simply a kind of blackmail, especially directed against Americans whoThey don't want to. lead to proliferation of atomic weapons, even among allies. Apart from Ukraine's real capabilities to build a atomic bomb, Zelenski's message conveys a very clear signal to allies – Ukraine is desperate due to the fact that it knows that it is losing. The West may think that there is no point in helping her, since the issue of the coming months is her demise. In specified a scenario, investments of allies in Kiev's military would not bring the expected results.
Perhaps the thesis preached by Zelenski is part of a policy building the postwar communicative of Ukraine's betrayal of the West, which has become the origin of the lost war. Zelenski refers to the Budapest Memorandum as a paper that picked up Ukraine's atomic arsenal, and thus the anticipation of deterring Russia in exchange for security. It is frequently interpreted as a safety warrant requiring the West to defend Ukraine. This is not compatible withTrue. Kiev renounced atomic weapons in exchange for the chance to participate in global trade on the principles dictated by the Americans. However, he did not make the most of this opportunity.
21.10 Fresh ink on rubles
The Kremlin has takendecisions, to increase budget expenditure this year. He first allocated an additional 1.5 trillion rubles (about $15 billion), without having to change the plan of the adopted budget. Then increased by 7 trillion rubles (about $71 billion) spending for the years 2025-2027.
The first amount was put into service with the approval of State Duma. The proposal for an increase in expenditure has been considered positively due to the fact that it is intended for precedence purposes defined by the president of Russia. Most likely this means «integration» of Ukrainian lands to Russia and spending on a general war effort.
The proposal was accompanied by the following: Annex issued by the Accounting Board of the Russian Federation – ,,The bill does not identify the sources of financial support proposed to increase the full amount of national budget expenditure in 2024. The draft law is supported in the light of the above comments.’ This raises many questions about the real origin of 1.5 trillion rubles. The Accounting Chamber itself, aimed at controlling state funds in the eyes ofcommentators does not fulfil the tasks set before it correctly.
More controversy is caused by the second crucial expenditure – 7 trillion rubles. It is the consequence of the initiative of Finance Minister Anton Siuanov, introducing over 900 amendments to the budget plan for the period 2025-2027. This appropriation is intended to cover expenditure on general improvement of public institutions, national infrastructure and ad hoc assistance to entrepreneurs. The origin of these measures is important. According to somecommentators That $7 trillion is just empty money. If that were true, then Russia, upon return to the global marketplace for trade and exit from the war economy, it will gotta face the consequences of decisions that contribute to inflation. The question arises whether Russia's tiny budget deficit (2%) is not the consequence of utilizing empty money and is kept artificially at the expense of inflation. Supporters of the MMT may disagree on the scale of the harmfulness of this practice.
While the Kremlin spends a trillion rubles, which he may have printed himself, the Central Bank is desperately fighting inflation in the country expanding rapidly interest rates.
23.10 Economic inhibition and fight against inflation
Russia's economy, despite sanctions, has not fallen. GDP growth this yearto achieve 3.6%, 0.4% higher than previously predicted. While the economy grows, driven by evidence arms orders, the Central Bank fights inflation. The decrease in money value is estimated to be around 8.6% on a yearly basis. To prevent these dangerous trends, the interest rate has been increased to 21%, by 1 percent point more than announced September. It results in a wave. bankruptcy companies, in peculiar those not engaged in arms production.
High request for labour is applied to rising inflation. Many of the erstwhile employees either fled the country before the draft or were recruited. Unemployment reached a evidence low level –2.4%. It is estimated that Russia can missing almost 5 million hands to work. The economy can't keep up with production. Therefore, a real wage growing. advanced interior consumption can be interpreted as a way to escape money that would aid average Russians in times of inflation.
Decisions of the Central Bank may reduce home demand, but will besides contribute to a decline in GDP and the collapse of many companies. GDP growth next year hasdecreased up to 1.3%. This is equal to Western European countries, but highly low in the country BRICS (China 4.5%, India 6.5%).
The war economy engages production forces in the arms sector contributing tostagnation in the civilian sector. Sooner or later, specified a model of improvement must end, and the Kremlin will come to face the consequences of his erstwhile policy.
Reasons for which the Russian economy is increasing despite sanctions:
1- unchangeable exports
2 — Government investment and procurement
3- stimulated interior consumption
22-24.10 BRICS Summit in Kazan
The 16th BRICS summit was held in the Sermon of Volga. It is the largest global event taking place in Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Participants discussedTopics known to us from erstwhile meetings of this organization. These include: establishing a counterweight for the West, expanding the organization, creating a multilateral world, promoting a global voice South etc.
Perhaps to the most importantstatements The summit took place on the occasion of the vote by president Xi Jinping. In his view, BRICS must become a collective safety organisation in the future. In view of this conviction, a fast deescalation of the Ukrainian crisis should be sought." The thought has been supplemented by 3 rules that would form the basis of this policy and a way of mythizing future conflicts.
1 – No expansion of the battlefield
2 — No escalation
3 — No provocation
Putin responded to those wordssayingthat we are open to discussion about the peace agreement, in any form, as long as it takes into account reality in the field of combat." The Russian president pointed out that the question of the Kremlin's maintenance of power in the conquered areas of Ukraine is not open to discussion. On the basis of this statement, it can be concluded that the Russians do not consider war a loss. They feel that they can negociate with Ukraine at all times from the position of force.
31.10. Kim's soldiers enter the battle.
According to reports fromThe White House, about 10,000 North Korean soldiers were sent to aid the Russian army. First trained in the far east of Russia, they are then to be sent to the Kursk region. North Korea has an awesome human resource, its army has about 1.3 million soldiers. Putting any of them under Putin's management is only an component of expanding cooperation between both countries. We've already dealt with the transfer of crucial ammunition from North Korea to Russia. in return min. for food and technology. The Kims state has late been associated with the Kremlin with an authoritative cooperation document.
In June Putin went to Pjongjangu to include,Mutual Defence AgreementIt’s okay. ” This was the first specified visit since 2000, and the contract's provisions are of a nature alliance Military. Both States undertake to defend each another if 1 of the signatories is attacked. On October 24, Duma ratified this agreement.
The souls of 10,000 of their soldiers, Kim sold for $200 million and 700,000 tonnes of rice per year, as well as for supporting Russian specialists in the space and arms industry. The Kremlin itself provided a wage of $2,000. North Korea is in an interesting situation. Russia lacks hands to work and its manufacture has peaked in production. Despite this, orders for ammunition are increasing. possibly the alliance between the 2 satrapies will consequence in mutual benefit. Korea can become a hub for inexpensive Russian ammunition production, while developing its own manufacture thanks to Moscow specialists.
LISTOPAD
04.11 study on the Real Causes of War
During the first days of the war, the conclusion of a fast peace was a script considered by Kremlin politicians. On this subjecttalk with Kiev. The strategy investigation group, which is part of Radio Free Europe, reached the papers presenting the demands of the Russian side during the first attempts to make peace. The previously unpublished ten-page text is entitled – ,,Treaty on the dissolution of Ukraine and Neutrality of Ukraine’, dated 7.03.22. Eleven days after the launch of a full-screen invasion. This is the first document laying out clearly Putin's demands
The most crucial points are:
– Neutrality of Ukraine included in the Constitution (no military alliances)
– reducing Ukraine's army to 50,000. soldiers
– Disposal by Ukraine of weapons more than 250km
– dedication of Donbas and Lugansk Russia and resignation of Crimea
– giving control of arms production to Moscow
– establishment of Russian language in the authoritative language of Ukraine
The most crucial information, not contained in the document, but the guiding point of the peace talks, was to negociate fresh guarantees of Ukraine's security. The agreement, modelled at 5th point in the NATO Treaty, was to apply to the states that were part of the truce (US, UK, France, China, Russia Ukraine, Turkey and Belarus) to defend territorial integrity. Ukraine with its own armed forces.
However, the proposal takes on the colour of absurdity erstwhile it is cited that during the negotiations the Russians demanded the implementation of the request to defend Ukraine's borders on the basis of a consensus of signatories. This means that by vetoing the decision to grant armed assistance, Moscow could unilaterally overturn the request for global protection of Kiev. Even in case of his own aggression against Kiev.
The safety warrant agreement is most likely another of many sensational stories that come to light from the Ukrainian side. In particular, given the request to affect the full 3rd country conglomerate in the project, which have no interest in the active defence of Ukraine.
A major change, in relation to the first plan, has taken place in relation to the territorial demands of the Russian side. In addition to Donbas and Lugansk Kremlin demands recognition,incarnate“ to Russia in 2022, Zaporozhka and Khersonszczyzna for Russian land. It can be concluded that during almost 3 years of war, Russia is constantly trying to accomplish its maximum plan, and its expectations towards the presented by the strategy have only increased.
The objectives of the EWS are not set out in the document. However, due to their ambiguity, in the event of an agreement with the Ukrainians Putin could clarify their meaning in specified a way as to fit into the framework of the peace treaty post factum.
6.11 Trump's peace plan
The shock caused by Trump's return to the White home besides rocked the future of the war in Ukraine. President-elect will gotta wait a fewer more months to take power, but he is already announcing how he will guide his country's policy towards Europe. ByArticle The Wall Street Journal, which cites an interview with the Trump administration, can be included in 3 postulates:
1 – designation of territorial achievements of Russia
2 – frost the anticipation of joining Ukraine for 20 years
3 – Establishment of a demilitarised region to be filled by Europeans (British, Polish, French, German)
The President-elect powerfully excludes the anticipation of US or UN forces maintaining peace in the east of Ukraine. He is convinced that Europe has the possible to prosecute specified a policy on its own
In turn, forcing both parties to negociate should be done by simple persuasion. If the Russians refuse to cooperate, the US will flood I'm utilizing my help. If Ukraine does not want to sit at the negotiating table, the Americans will cut off specified aid completely.
The devastated Ukraine and the weakening Russia can gladly join the peace plan. Kiev does not presently have the means to reflect its territory and negociate its own position in NATO. For Russia, in turn, freezing the conflict would be an chance to prepare for its reactivation in the future and to influence the post-war policy of the Ukrainian State. It is doubtful, however, that European allies, without resources and motivation, will presume the function of peacekeepers in the East. It doesn't service businessBerlin and Paris seeking the return of business as user in relations with Moscow. London is deprived of military capabilities, and Warsaw has not been allowed to have peace talks in Berlin, which de facto means that it is not considered to be a player in east Europe and an equal partner by allies from the West. Her engagement in the DMZ would so mean pursuing American policy at the expense of her own resources alternatively than an autonomous game in the East.
Perhaps the individual who spoke to the WSJ came to the paper to examine the ground with a controlled leak to implement specified a plan. Putinreaction affirmative for this proposal. In any case, implementing specified a script would mean freezing the conflict, not ending it.
12.11 Concerns of Russian Oligarchy
Inflation, advanced interest rates, a imagination of Trump customs, are things that worry all Russian. east magnates, however, must worry about their fortunes. Processnationalisation of elites He forced oligarchs to anchor his assets in the Russian economy, and this one, is not well.
The issue of the impact of Western sanctions on Russia's interior economy has been discussed many times in erstwhile editions, "Oka on Russia". The head of the Central Bank – Elvira Nabiullin, is taking extremist steps in advance to mitigate the negative effects the war economy of Russia will bring to you after the end of the conflict in Ukraine. The most dangerous decision for companies occurred in the erstwhile period erstwhile the21% interest rates. This is likely to consequence in a massive collapse of civilian enterprises, which are not part of a strategy of government orders keeping the arms manufacture alive.
Despite Kremlin's peculiar care over the production of war equipment, his largest typical – Sergei Czemezov, head of Rostec in charge80% National military production, clear Critic decisions of the Central Bank. However, the policy put in place by Nabiulin seems appropriate in the context of the expected and current economical problems. There is simply a conflict between the state and the oligarchs, who control a large part of Russian enterprises. Bloomberg Agency says The oligarchs fear Trump's return to the office of President. They are afraid about the expected duties, which will further weaken their home economy. They besides do not share Kremlin's optimism. The war may not end as rapidly as Putin would have wanted, and the projected economical growth of 2025 (1.3%) may be overestimated. besides fewer employees and the expected fall of parts of civilian companies can origin shortages of goods and services. The sanctions forced any companies to change the direction of exports of production from Europe to Asia which besides resulted in another problem for Russian companies. Especially in the context of advanced taxes imposed by Moscow to sponsor the war in Ukraine. advanced interest rates in turn prevent money reinvesting within the country. It's a capital freeze. The general opinion of the oligarchs presented by Bloomberg is little pink than the authoritative Kremlin narrative. No less, it does not request the disastrous collapse of Russia's economy in the following years. There is only a correction of Moscow's overly optimistic beliefs.
12.11- Russian pride will fight “anti-pronatalist” propaganda
November 12 b.r portal Jellyfishstated that the Russian Duma passed an amendment to the laws intended to fight against the ideology of “childfree”. The revision of national law is intended to hit mainly websites and films promoting the ideology of “childfree” to manifest itself by promoting a lifestyle that assumes the conscious absence of children. Those promoting “anti-pronalistic” content may be fined half a million rubles (about $51,000).
The request to amend the law in the fight against the “childfree” ideology has been discussed in the Russian Duma since 2022, while in September this year work on the change of law has accelerated after the speech of the president of the Council of the Federation of Valentina Matwienko who in interview stressed the request for a legal fight against the “childfree” ideology.
17.11.2024 – The largest Russian attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in months.
Attacks were recorded in respective large cities, from Odessa to the south, Dnieper to the east to Equal to the west. In Kiev, which has witnessed almost regular attacks since the beginning of September, residents have been forced to shelter at subway stations. The Russians fired about 120 rockets and 90 drones. Despite shooting down 102 rockets and 42 drones, Ukraine suffered severe losses in the field of energy infrastructure, civilian casualties of raids have besides appeared. 2 people were killed in a drone attack in the Santa Claus region, and six others, including 2 children, were injured. Another 2 people died in Odessa in an attack in which a 17-year-old boy was besides injured, and a female was killed in her car in the Lviv Oblast. The last comparable attack took place on 28 August, erstwhile Russia launched 127 missiles and 109 drones attacking Ukraine, reported Ukrainian air force. Night attacks caused power outages in respective regions, including Odessa, where supplies of heating, water and electricity were cut off, and hospitals are supplied with generators. The Ukrainian power company DTEK reported that its heat plants were attacked and the equipment was "seriously damaged". specified attacks proceed their strategy to destruct Ukrainian energy in order to destruct the state's resilience and influence civilian and military morale in a hard winter season.
20.11.2024 – Ukraine first launched British-French Storm Shadow missiles in Russia (course circuit).
On the night of 19 to 20 November Ukraine launched a successful attack on military infrastructure on the Russian rear utilizing drones and delivered by the West long-range weapons. The main mark was military buildings intended to command Russia's batting operation occupied by Ukrainian Armed Forces of the area in the Kursk Oblast. The remaining missiles mainly in the form of drones were fired towards industrial objects in the Bielgorod region, Voronezhski and Nowogrodki. Ukrainian military representatives mention that ammunition depots were destroyed, where the Russians stored missiles, “Grad”, “Smerch”, “Urgan”. Military operations command stations in the Kursk and Belgorod region were besides hit. The exact losses suffered by the Russians are not specified. This is the first successful rocket attack of Ukraine in the Russian Federation with precision weapons sent by Western states.
21.11. 2024 – Massive rocket attack on energy and critical infrastructure in Dniepra.
The Russian attack of November 21 on the Ukrainian city of Dniepr was the first always combat usage of a mid-range ballistic rocket (Oresznik) with many independently guided warheads. Russian Federation president Vladimir Putin explains the usage of the rocket as a consequence to Ukraine's usage of ATACAMS and Storm Shadow missiles with the approval of the United States and large Britain. Ballistic missiles have led to crucial harm at the Piwdenmasz plant, which serves as a repair center for military vehicles and are the assembly of military weapons and equipment. The attack has caused crucial damage, while Moscow's usage of this weapon besides has diplomatic messages. The usage of Oresznik is seen as another manifestation step in the Russian communicative of intimidation by atomic escalation, as specified missiles are capable of carrying atomic warheads, covering Europe as a full and in modified version can be utilized as intercontinental missiles.
