Maria Tsiptsiura: On the 1 hand, we hear Donald Trump, who keeps talking about the request for ceasefire. On the another hand, we have a tragedy in Sumach and a continuous fire on Ukraine. Do you think there's any chance of a ceasefire?
Tara Zagrodny: The negotiations are deadlocked. There's no agreement on anything. Russia insists on stopping arms supply to Ukraine, mobilising and providing intelligence. These are absolutely unacceptable conditions that neither Ukraine nor the European Union nor the US can accept. No common ground of agreement was found. The Russian Federation continues and insists on abolishing sanctions. And that's where the U.S. has a problem. due to the fact that the abolition of sanctions depends on Europe.
Why?
For example, SWIFT is based in Brussels and the European Union refuses to abolish sanctions. This means that Americans cannot give the Russians what they want. Russia has nothing to offer the Americans. After all, Russia's trade is mainly about Europe and China, and they are tiny from the US. And even if the United States has abolished sanctions against Russia, it won't do. That's why it's a dead end. Most likely now the US will gotta return to aid Ukraine in 1 way or another. They won't have a choice. The United States gave the Russians the chance to retreat from the war while preserving their faces. But Russia won't usage it.
What does Vladimir Putin expect?
For an offensive run to take place in the summertime and gain a crucial advantage. But Ukraine is getting stronger, so it is unlikely.
How long will it take Trump to realize that you can't scope an agreement with Putin?
I think the U.S. already understands that, but they're just not ready to admit it yet. After all, they always trust on Europe. And most likely America will gotta return to cooperation within the North Atlantic Alliance and aid Ukraine. Trump will be under the force of a 100-day deadline, to which we already see tense reactions in the US today. For example, for Zelenski's message that Ukraine is ready to buy weapons and cannot refuse military contracts for its producers.
In that case, why have a resource agreement if Ukraine pays for weapons? That puts Trump in an awkward position. On the 1 hand, they gotta comply with military contracts, and on the other, they want to mediate between Ukraine and Russia. It won't work. They'll gotta go where the logic of the trials is. Eventually, they won't be able to save Russia.
"United States have always tried to save Russia"
Based on Donald Trump's reactions, is he inactive hoping this will work?
This is not Trump's individual position. This is the position of the United States for the last 150 years. They always tried to save Russia. They saved her from starvation in the Czarski era. There is an interesting image of Aivazovsky entitled “Food Distribution” of 1892. The United States besides helped the Bolsheviks escape starvation in the 1920s. Let's remember Wilson's fourteen points. The United States has always believed that Russia should be united and indivisible.
MICHAEL KLIMENTYEV / SOUTH / KEMLIN POOL / POOL / East NewsVladimir Putin, Donald Trump in 2019.
US policy assumes Russia should be stable. Roosevelt provided Stalin with resources. The Americans tried to save the russian Union. Now they're trying to do the same. But I think they already realize they're not gonna make it. Moreover, the Russian Federation is losing its sovereignty and is increasingly subordinate to China. It will not be possible to separate Russia from China. Beijing will not let this, and the United States will not be able to compensate Russia's trade with China. They inactive collide with an empty concrete wall.
So all this talk about even a theoretical ceasefire isn't real?
Not until Putin's in power. I think the war will continue. The United States will shortly realise this. They may effort to give the elite an ultimatum that they must remove the mad Putin and then talk. Doubtful, though, if they will. The United States is panicked by the fall of the Russian Federation. It's a immense problem for them. And the American nightmare is the common Chinese-American border along the Bering Strait.
That sounds unrealistic.
China is moving to the Arctic. For now, they are divided by the ocean, but let's imagine that Russia will fall and China will gain control of Kamchatka and the Bering Strait. The US will have a common border with China. This is America's worst nightmare. Moreover, they cannot solve 2 problems simultaneously: renew the American economy and save Russia. They've already launched an economical tsunami. It will besides include Russia. This will yet be equivalent to a fall in oil prices.
"United States want to fight for influence in the Arctic"
How will this affect Russia?
Russia will just be pushed into the corner. They won't be able to fight. After all, they already have higher war expenses than the russian Union in the 1980s. In addition, China has already devalued yuan against another currencies. For Russia, this means that they must devalue the ruble against the yuan. If they don't, they'll lose 20% of their export gross to China.
If China falls into recession, oil consumption will decrease. The Russian Federation besides created a reserve in yuan. That means their reserves are devaluation. And it will continue. Eventually, China will have no choice but to devalue the yuan against another currencies to keep the competitiveness of its economy. And there's no another way.
MAXIM SHIPENKOV / PAPXi Jinping, Vladimir Putin
The United States wants to fight for influence in the Arctic, and their allies can only be countries of North Europe. Norway, Finland, Sweden, Denmark. They all share a common border with Ukraine and Russia. And everyone's nervous. The president of Finland has clearly said they are ready to help, but they have a 1,300 km border with Russia and request safety guarantees. This means that wherever the US goes, they always insist on returning to a large and friendly Euro-Atlantic community, which they will be able to do with immense image losses.
Eventually, trust was lost. The next step for Europeans is to learn to live without the United States. Gradually they realize they can do without American weapons. Especially if you can't usage it to shoot Russia. The second question is: why do we request US payment systems erstwhile we can make our own? Europe was not developing its military manufacture due to the fact that the US was expected to defend everyone. There is no longer specified common trust, and Europeans are becoming more independent
The United States is already suffering economical losses. The yearly export of American weapons is worth $300 billion. The losses have already begun, and Russia has nothing to offer the United States. The Arctic? They won't get into the joint projects. Roskosmos? Why would the American Russian Roskosmos if Elon Musk had already eliminated him from the marketplace as a serious player? There's a dead end everywhere.
“The minute is approaching erstwhile Russia will be hard to fight”
You said it wouldn't be possible to save Russia. What's the script?
There are already budgetary losses. The minute is coming erstwhile Russia will be hard to fight. The economy is not rubber. And erstwhile oil prices fall, the question will arise as to whether they will be able to keep the country. They gotta pay mercenaries and the military.
So the script is this: the war is on, but how long can Putin fight?
It's a rhetorical question. We will surely see clear economical problems this year. possibly even in the second quarter, if the price of oil falls significantly, which will surely happen. Trump will now realize that there is no way to scope an agreement with Putin and that he must return to the European household and aid Ukraine. If you want to realize what truly happens in the United States, perceive to what the Secretary of State Marco Rubio says. He sees quite a few problems.
Viktor Dabkowski / PAPMarco Rubio
He late stated that he was very afraid that US arms producers might not be able to participate in European tenders. What happened? possibly erstwhile everyone saw how rapidly the United States could abandon their partners, they all thought that American weapons were not so needed. Everyone realized they had to look for another options. Europeans have already decided that they can order arms production elsewhere than the US. Ukraine already has an armed army. Turns out we can do without Americans. Europeans wonder whether 5% of GDP needs to be spent, as Trump demands, since it does not warrant anything. possibly anything can be done for 3% of GDP. Trust in the United States has fallen. There are no guarantees.
As for Russia, this process has already begun. The Russians are headed for the concrete wall and that's why the US is in specified a hurry to save them. But Russia does not want to be rescued, and the current processes will not stop. shortly will come the time to admit reality.
