Written by: Piotr Gawrycki, Paweł Gawryluk, Bartosz Krawiec, Miłosz Wojtala
The elections carried out in the 27 countries of the European Union, despite any analysts' predictions, did not bring a crucial change on the European political scene. They have importantly more affected the political scenery in individual associate States. The attention of commentators and journalists is now caught by the situation in Western Europe and the consequences of severe failures of any ruling parties. In France, president Emmanuel Macron decided to make an early election after a crucial defeat of his group. In Belgium, following the announcement of the results, Prime Minister Alexander De Croo announced his resignation, and in Germany where the governing coalition parties suffered a severe defeat for the organization on the right side of the political scene. But this is part of the picture. In this article, we present 4 elected parties from our region that have succeeded in these elections and will shortly most likely play a crucial function on the national political scene or form ruling coalitions.
Estonia — Isamaa
The Estonian organization Isamaa was formed in 2006 as a consequence of the merger of 2 another parties — the Chadetic Isamaaliit and the conservative Res Publica. It was then named for both parties which entered into its membership. The current name was adopted in 2018. Isamaa means simply “home” in Estonian. Isamaa is simply a organization of Christian democracy, located on the political spectrum from the centre right to the right. The European Parliament is part of the European People's Party, which besides includes the Civic Platform and the Polish People's Parties, the German CDU and CSU, the Spanish Popular Partido or the French Republicans. Its current leader is Urmas Reinsalu, two-time Minister of abroad Affairs of Estonia (in 2019-2021 and 2022-2023).
Isamaa represents a conservative worldview and economical liberalism. In the economical sphere, it is very akin to the current coalition that governs Poland, so it focuses on the minimum interference of the state – it is opposed, among others, to progressive income taxation and property tax. He is besides a supporter of the partial privatisation of the wellness system.
The Urmas Reinsalu organization besides powerfully accentuates defence and national safety issues, but this is characteristic of Estonia — in last year's parliamentary elections, all parties supported an increase in defence spending to 3% of GDP and sanctions on Russia (Isama proposed even 6% of defence GDP in the close past). This goal is to be achieved not by taxation increases but by abroad loans. Isamaa besides advocates military aid for Ukraine and the reception of Ukrainian refugees. The only Estonian organization that is in favour of limiting these last 2 demands is the anti-EU and anti-immigrant EKRE. Isamaa as an crucial component of national safety indicates a ban on taking part in elections for residents with Russian and Belarusian citizenship, which would require a change of constitution.
Among the party's crucial demands is besides the alleged estonization of education, and thus the introduction of teaching in Estonian already in kindergartens, even those which are mainly attended by children from national minorities – about 22% of the Estonian population are cultural Russians, and besides mention the Belarusians and Ukrainians.
In the individual sphere, Isamaa puts large emphasis on the conventional model of the family, encourages increased fertility, advocates materially for families with children, including single parents, and many of its members, including two-time Prime Minister Mart Laar, argue monosexual marriage. Despite these conservative views in 2023, she did not advocate limiting the right to abortion (in Estonia, it is available on request until the 11th week of pregnancy, and in utmost cases, among another things, the threat to the life of the parent or genetic defects of the fetus — up to week 21). To the right of Isamya on the worldview axis is only the already mentioned EKRE.
Isamaa never won the election in Estonia, but made 5 ruling coalitions. After the 2023 parliamentary election, she is in opposition, for the 3rd time in her history. Today, he has 8 Members in the 101-member Riigikog (one-person parliament of Estonia).
However, the situation began to turn in favour of Isamya shortly after the 2023 election. According to the Politico portal “Fatherland” can number on 25% of support, which gives it first place in the country. This suggests the large discontent of Estonian society with the actions of the fresh government. The Estonian improvement Party, which leads the government's coalition, has only 18% (31.24% in 2023) and 3rd place (15%) is, ex aequo, the most far-right EKRE (16.05% in 2023) and the Social Democratic Party. The second besides forms part of the coalition (in 2023 it received 9.27%), as did Estonia 200, which gives only 6% (13.33% in 2023).
According to the Estonian methodology for polling before the European Parliament elections, the question of support for circumstantial candidates was asked, alternatively than for the organization due to very short electoral lists in Estonia. Isamaa received in them, depending on the poll, from 14% to up to 21% (this almost always gave her a place in the top three). This was a crucial increase in relation not only to the last fewer years, but besides to last year's national elections. A survey by Norstat on 8-20 May gave the "Country" — for the first time — place No. 1 (21.3%), with a two-point advantage over the Social Democratic organization and 2.2 pp. over the Estonian improvement Party.
These predictions were reflected in reality — Isamaa won the election, gaining 21.51%. She overtook the Social Democratic organization (19.33%) and the Estonian improvement organization (17.93%). Thanks to this result, the Homeland introduced 2 Members to the European Parliament. The same number of seats were awarded to the Social Democratic organization and 1 was awarded to the Estonian improvement Party, the EKRE and the Estonian Centre Party.
Lithuania – Lithuanian Social Democratic Party
Founded in 1989, the Lithuanian Social Democratic organization (LSDP) is simply a centre-left political organization operating in the Lithuanian political arena. Its current leader is Vilija Blinkevičiūtė. The LSDP in the European Parliament belongs to the faction of the organization of European Socialists (PES), which presently has 2 Euro-Parliamentarians[1]. The party's agenda focuses primarily on labour rights and social economical demands. These include increases for educational workers, a four-day working week, a willingness to introduce a progressive tax-based welfare state, and a better wellness system[2].
Although the LSDP itself is called the pro-European party, it believes that the European Union, as it stands, is technocratic, and that it lacks initiatives aimed at its citizens. The LSDP remediation to this situation is the EU's democratisation, the pursuit of progressive and social policies, and the EU's support of associate States to equalise their development[3]. LSDP is besides considered to be a pronata organization that powerfully opposes Russian aggression in Ukraine.
LSDP began to gain popularity with the change of power in the organization on 29 May 2021, erstwhile the rudders took over Vilija Blinkevičiūtė. For its president the organization focused primarily on economical demands and constructive criticism of the conservative ruling coalition. On the wave of expanding dissatisfaction of the Lithuanian society ruling the coalition, the LSDP began to flood voters who hoped to change on the quarrelsome Lithuanian political scene. In 2023, the LSDP was announced as the winner of the local elections[4]. Although the LSDP is presently a opposition party, in this year's presidential election it supported Gitanas Nausėda's candidacy, which thus gained re-election. This movement is considered by the supporters of the LSDP as a feature of the maturity of the organization that puts national interest above organization interest.
According to national polls in 2015, the LSDP held a 31% endorsement, however, with subsequent years, this support steadily declined to only 7% of support in early 2021. With the crisis on the border with Belarus and the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, support for the LSDP slow but systematically grows. The last poll of April 25, 2024 shows that LSDP can number on 22% of Lithuanian society[5]. It is presently the most supported political organization in Lithuania.
Despite comparatively strong support, the LSDP won 17.98% of the vote in the Sunday elections to the European Parliament, which translated into 2 seats in the European Parliament[6]. On behalf of the LSDP, Vilija Blinkevičiūtė and Vytenis Povilas Andriukaitis were given a seat in the EP. The best result, however, was achieved by the governing organization of the Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democracy, which obtained 21,33% of the vote, which translated into 3rd place in the European Parliament. Turnout was only 28.34%.
Romania — Romanian Unity Union
The Romanian Unity Union (Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor, AUR) is simply a political group founded by George Simon in 2019. The Romanian political organization has a extremist right-wing and clearly nationalistic character, and its doctrine is based on 4 main pillars, including family, faith, nation and freedom. In their rhetoric, AUR politicians frequently mention to the question of the incorporation of the neighboring Republic of Moldova into Romania, the idealization of the ruling fascist government of General Ion Antonescu during planet War II, and the Euroscepticism which, according to members of the group, is regarded as ‘eurorealism’. The Eurorealism of the AUR is manifested in the quest to keep as much independency as possible from the structures of the European Union, while criticising the thought of European federalisation.
AUR, despite being a comparatively young group on the Romanian political scene, began to receive a group of recipients from the beginning of its existence. In the 2020 parliamentary elections, support for the far-right organization was 9%, while in the polls for the elections to the European Parliament, as predicted by the Politico AUR portal, could number for 16-19% of support. The AUR phenomenon is primarily due to the disappointment and fatigue of Romanian citizens 2 dominant parties on the Romanian political scene: the PNL (liberators) and the PSD (social democrats), which in the Euro-elections bound the National Coalition for Romania (CNR). This means that the right-wing AUR is forced to fight for second place in terms of public support in the country, as the combined support of liberals and social democrats according to the polls is about 50%.
It is not certain which political group in the European Parliament would qualify for the AUR politicians in the European elections. The founder and organization president George Simon himself expressed his desire to join the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, who are now the strongest right-wing faction in the EP, but he pointed out that the inclusion of AUR representatives in the ECR would only be possible if the Hungarian Fidesz organization were not present. Apart from the ECR, the Romanian organization has a chance to join the European Group of Identity and Democracy (ID), which brings together European groups of an utmost right-wing and Eurosceptic nature.
The elections to Europarlamment held on 9 June were rather a success for AUR, as the vote resulted in nearly 15% of the vote for this group, which translates into 6 EP mandates (5 more than in 2019). The obtained support placed AUR second in this year's EP election. The extremist right had no chance of defeating the united in 1 coalition of Liberals and Social Democrats, whose support was nearly 49%, giving them 19 mandates.
Hungary — TISSA
The TISZA organization (Tisztelet és Szabadság Párt, the respect and Freedom Party) has become the largest opposition force in Hungary in fresh months. Péter Magyar, organization leader and previously a man close to the circles of power, announced the launch of his group in the elections to the European Parliament.
The organization was formally registered as early as April 2021. Its founders planned to compete in the 2022 parliamentary elections, and Attila Szabó, TISZA president announced that the organization was not going to apply for state grants and would self-finance. However, members' assets and voluntary contributions did not let the sum to be collected to be taken up in elections.
The organization became public again in 2024, due to erstwhile Hungarian Justice Minister Judit Vargi, who resigned from her post in February 2024 in an atmosphere of scandal. Together with her, the resignation was given by the President, Katalin Novák; both took work for pardoning the manager of the kid home in Budapest, convicted of kid molestation. The scandal shook the Hungarian political scene, and the revelation of pardon sparked thousands of anti-government protests.
It was then that the ex-husband of the minister joined the case, who in February 2024 revealed the recording with her participation. In a 2 - minute material on which you can hear the voice of Judit Vargi, it confirms that members of the government have hidden their engagement in corruption. They were expected to influence the prosecutors to remove the incriminating evidence. On February 11, Magyar gave an interview for the popular online channel Partizan, in which he revealed the scale of corruption in Viktor Orban's government.
Orban had previously underestimated Magyar's actions, calling them a telenovela, which fits into his typical strategy of ignoring compromising information with the hope that people would cease to be curious in them. According to a government version of the events, Magyar is portrayed as a vengeful ex-husband who mistreated his wife, which aims to undermine his credibility.
On March 15, a multi-thousand anti-government demonstration passed through Budapest. It was during the march that Péter Magyar announced his intention to make a fresh political force that would challenge the long-term governments of FIDESZ. It must be added that the politician did not mean to make a fresh organization due to the fact that TISZA has existed since 2021. During the demonstration, he announced that he wanted to make a national force from the group.
TISZA itself is positioned as a centre power, supporting decentralisation of power and fighting corruption. The increasing popularity in fresh months is due, among another things, to the image of the anti-oligarchist party, seeking to remove the political forces ruling Hungary from power since 2010.
The organization leader on his Facebook profile posted on May 15 a 12-point program of his party. His records are aimed primarily at improving the surviving conditions of citizens, which is to prepare the ground for political combat before the 2026 parliamentary elections. In his plan, Magyar wrote, among another things, about reducing VAT on food, expanding social assistance or reorganising media and justice.
According to a survey by national agency Iránytű, Péter Magyar's organization was able to number on 26% of voters in April. At the same time, Politico has lower support in May, within 22% However, it should be noted that since the public announcement of political conflict and the desire to run in elections, support for TISZA has increased (according to Politico) by 6 percent points. On 31 May, a small over a week before the elections to the European Parliament, all 4th right to vote wanted to vote for this party.
On 11 April, Péter Magyar registered the TISZA organization in the upcoming elections to the European Parliament and the local elections to be held on the same day (9 June). It will most likely join the European People's Party, from which FIDESZ was removed in 2021.
In elections to the European Parliament TISSA She won 29.6% of the vote, which will let her to introduce 7 Members. The FIDESZ coalition headed by Viktor Orban recorded the worst score in years – 44.8 %, which translates into 10 seats in Parliament. Péter Magyar after announcing the results He saidthat “it was Waterloo for Orban’s power apparatus” and that “a certain era has ended, the future begins.”
[1] Lithuania,https://results.elections.europa.eu/en/national-results/lithuania/2019-2024/outgoing-parliament/, accessed: 02.06.2024.
[2] The president LSDP pristatė rinkim, https://www.15min.lt/naujiena/update/lietuva/lsdp-pristate-rinkimu-programa-zada-visuotini-uzimtuma-ir-nemokamus-skiepus-nuo-covid-19-jei-tokie-bus-56-1352256, accessed: 02.06.2024.
[3] Lietuvos socialdemocrat, https://www.vrk.lt/en/lsdp-programa, accessed: 02.06.2024.
[4] J. Hyndle-Hussein, Local elections in Lithuania – Conservatives lose popularity, https://www.osw.waw.pl/publications/analysis/2023-03-21/election-self-government-on-lith-conservatives-lost-popularity, accessed: 02.06.2024.
[5] Lithuania — National parliament voting intention, https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/lithuania/, accessed: 02.06.2024.
[6] Lithuania, https://results.elections.europa.eu/en/national-results/lithuania/2024-2029/, accessed: 11.06.2024.
Photo: Canva
