– For this year the forecasts made on the basis of the extension of the trend line scope 120–130 Tb/s, which is simply a multiple increase resulting from demand.
Satellite communications technology has extended applications in war, in armed forces. Not only for communication but besides for control of various unmanned ships, drones. Therefore, these are elements which are now of the advantage in the field of combat. Unfailing, very fast, safe communication determines who is stronger and possibly more – says Piotr Mierzejewski, president of Thorium Space in an interview with Newseria agency.
The global supply of satellite capacity in 2022 increased to 15 Tb/s, or 62% y/y.
Global satellite capacity has gradually increased since 2022, i.e. since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. As experts point out, this is the consequence of expanding request for communication technologies, which are widely utilized in armed forces, including the control of unmanned aircraft. According to experts, Europe is losing in the global race mainly to the United States, but besides to China or India.
The global supply of satellite capacity in 2022 increased to 15 Tb/s, or 62% y/y. From 2023 to 2025, it increased 3.5-fold, reaching 105 Tbps. This is the consequence of the data of the global consulting company Novaspace.
93% of the world's satellite capacity is presently from Starlink.
– This trend has resulted in the phenomenon that now the American Starlink, if we look at the capacity offered, is simply a global mogul, a monopolist. This situation sets the market, defines certain improvement opportunities or lacks them. It besides sets the price conditions and the directions in which companies, including European ones, can or should develop," says Piotr Mierzejewski.
According to the European Commission, the satellite marketplace is undergoing crucial transformation due to a decrease in the cost of satellite launch and production and the designation of satellites as an crucial component in the provision of digital communications in under-range areas.
Communication is besides a anticipation to carry out satellites, produce them, as well as to make rockets, drive them, cost efficiency of the full ecosystem
– Communication is not only those devices that transmit and receive directly. It is besides an chance to carry out satellites, to produce them, as well as to make rockets, drives for them, cost efficiency of the full ecosystem," explains president Thorium Space. In this respect, American solutions are now unrivalled. Given the component of elevation itself, it is respective times cheaper than European solutions. The fresh ones that are coming and that will multiply opportunities on the 1 hand and, on the another hand, importantly reduce costs by a government of magnitude will make the distance between the US and the remainder of the planet grow very quickly. The cost of carrying out satellites will change, so it will be easier to grow these constellations, as Starlink is not the only 1 operating on the market. There are fresh beings – he adds.
The expert points out that it is crucial to focus on the costs that arise from scale and needs.
"Europe, with today's configuration, can only meet its needs. It will so operate on a much smaller scale and have higher operating costs. In addition, all legal, organisational, energy costs, materials and environmental solutions related to production make it impossible for us to compete from a cost point of view. Only the aspect of technological sovereignty, the power of the armed forces, where access costs are not so significant, remains – says Piotr Mierzejewski.
With 2 models, American and Chinese, it will be very hard to win on the consumer market, where the cost decides
The prices for Starlink's services on the Polish marketplace begin at 135 PLN with the modem, which is the equivalent of costs that had to be borne for GPS connectivity provided by mobile networks a fewer years ago. – These are not just challenges built by the US. As far as China and India are concerned, there is simply a larger scale, little costs and much more dynamics. China is simply a tycoon producing a full scope of consumed goods worldwide. Through a global scale, it reduces its unit costs of production. With these 2 models, American and Chinese, it will be very hard to win in the consumer market, where the cost decides. So the issue of sovereignty is understood as providing armed forces, communications governments, which will be safe, unfailing and safe from alien interference," noted president Thorium Space.
The European consequence is to be IRIS2 (Infrastructure for Resistance, Interconnectivity and safety by Satellite), a safe satellite communications system. It is intended to guarantee the independency of EU countries in government, military and commercial communication. It will usage 348 satellites deployed in low Earth orbit (LEO) and average Earth orbit (MEO).
European Iris Square task Concept
– In Europe, the concept of the Iris Square task was developed. It will be implemented by a consortium of European companies, so it will be more hard for individual companies to agree on these solutions and access to the outlet marketplace and projects that affect orders. So the scale is going to be small, the mechanics to solve by nature takes more time, due to the fact that we have agreements between companies versus monoliths operating on the American market. Therefore, this consequence is not expected to be rapid. It is likely that it will fulfill the task before this project, but I would anticipate delays in implementation – says Piotr Mierzejewski.
