The debate on the future of the European Union affects in a way all its inhabitants, and it is inactive a very hot and up-to-date topic. For years, the imagination of what awaits the largest community of European countries has oscillated between 2 completely different visions: the further centralisation of the European Union and the creation of a "superstate" and the return to stronger national states, working only in selected areas.
During 7th Technopolitical ForumThey talked about it. Łukasz Warzecha, writer of the Weekly “To Things” and Tomasz Gabiś, philosopher of politics and longtime editor-in-chief of the iconic “Stańczyk”. The discussion has shown rather clearly that this dispute is not only about organization reforms, but about the fundamental question of the nature of the European political community.
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What awaits Europe?
At the beginning, Łukasz Warzecha pointed out the different concepts that we can specify in this superstate – "We are talking about the federalisation of the European Union...the national state is not the same as the unitary state," he explained.
The writer noted that the notions of “federalisation” and “centralisation” are frequently utilized interchangeably, which he considers to be a mistake. In practice, they mean completely different models of political organisation. He cited, for example, Germany or the United States, where national entities, despite the unity of the state, hold broad autonomy in law.
Tomasz Gabiś noted that the European Union, as we know it today, is eluded by classical political definitions.
According to Gabisia, the EU is gradually becoming an increasingly centralised structure, absorbing further areas of social, economical and private life by global law.
He besides pointed out that European integration is constantly deepening under the loud and well-known slogans of "enlargement of competences" and "enhancement of integration", which are frequently repeated by politicians from Brussels. In practice, however, this means passing on a number of crucial decisions to the central institutions of the European Union, specified as on finance. The digital euro and the increasing function of the European Central Bank have just sounded peculiarly strongly. According to Gabisia, this can lead to an unprecedented impact on the lives of EU citizens by the European institutions.
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The crisis of a national state or its renaissance?
In the later part of the debate, there was a deep reflection on what could actually find the possible for European unification.
“Where they calculate our pension, our homeland is there.” said Tomasz Gabiś.
According to the interviewers, this shows that, despite the progressive European integration, fundamental political and social ties stay rooted in national countries.
Finally, citizens of all country of the Union, in addition to patriotism and attachment to their country, besides have a legal relation with it, by, for example, collecting benefits or paying taxes. In the opinion of the panelists, the European Union would gotta accept almost entirely these competences of the state in order to be able to discuss a single European country at all.
At the same time, he noted that European elites frequently respect national states as uncomfortable for further centralisation.
Countries with deep-rooted individuality and national values are little willing to abandon them for the "higher good" – i.e. deep integration.
Green Deal... or possibly not Deal?
Part of the discussion besides afraid climate policy and its impact on the European economy. The strategy that was expected to save the environment and be the large success of EU officials has become... their top burden? The speakers pointed out that it was Green Deal that became a symbol of the increasing disengagement of European elites from reality.
Sometimes EU decision-makers focus besides much on their desire to implement their vision, without being aware of its effectiveness and impact.
Warzecha pointed out the situation of the German steel and automotive industry. He cited the example of ThyssenKrupp and EU support for the ‘green steel’ production task utilizing hydrogen. "We solve the problem we have created," he commented.
Tomasz Gabiś besides assessed Germany's energy policy highly critically: "In fact, all the people who think in Germany say that this is absurd, error, stupidity," he said very strongly.
In his view, Europe is present in the process of "social and economical self-degradation", and subsequent regulations akin to the failure of the Green Deal only increase the cost of operating for citizens and businesses.
Who truly rules the world, means the Union?
One of the central questions of the debate was the question of the real centre of power in the European Union. Finally, something that could become a possible superstate should be supported by strong power and authority. Warzecha listed a number of competing centres: the European Commission, the European Parliament, the EU Court of Justice and the largest capitals – Berlin and Paris.
Gabiś replied: “There is no sovereign ... the centre of power that would yet decide.”
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According to him, the European Union resembles a multi-centre strategy in which there is simply a permanent fight for competences and influence. However, despite these conflicts and any differences, the direction of change remains the same, progressive centralisation.
How about a confederation?
Undoubtedly, 1 of the most appealing elements of the debate was the presentation of the author's concept of the future of Europe, named by the author "the explanation of the European empire". The philosopher rejected both full federalization and the thought of individual states leaving the European Union.
Instead, he proposed to make a European Confederation – a looser structure for cooperation between national states in Europe, which would arise alternatively of the Union.
"European nations should search to solve the European Union and make a kind of Confederation of European Nations," commented Tomasz Gabiś.
In this first vision, common competences should be limited to defence policy, border protection or part of abroad policy. However, cultural, economical or social issues should stay the work of the associate States.
Europe towards a fresh order
The conversation went far beyond the EU administration. Both of them stressed that the planet is present in a period of fast geopolitical change.
Gabiś recalled the words of British philosopher John Gray: “A arrogant fantasy of a liberal global order must be replaced by realism, average and continuous conflict to prevent disaster.”
In this context, reflection on Europe's relations with the United States was peculiarly interesting. Gabiś compared Donald Trump's separation from contact with the elite (mainly about cutting off Elon Musk) to Mikhail Gorbachev's behavior:
"Trump it is so Gorbachev. That means he is abandoning the elite.”
According to him, European political elites were in a position of uncertainty about the possible limitation of American engagement in Europe.
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At the crossroads...
In many cases, there is no clear answer. Despite its dynamics and many interesting themes, the debate has not clearly answered the question whether Europe is moving towards a superstate. However, it has clearly shown that the current integration model is becoming increasingly questionable even among those who have previously been in favour of the European project.
Łukasz Warzecha and Tomasz Gabiś agreed on 1 thing in their statements, the future of Europe will depend not only on organization reforms, but above all on the ability to meet economic, demographic and geopolitical challenges.
With each answer, however, further questions arise. Will the European Union be able to transform into a more flexible community of cooperation, or will it proceed the process of centralisation?
Or perhaps, as Mr Gabiś ironically suggested at the end of the debate, the European task is indeed like a space mission in which participants must be "hiberned" in order to last the way towards the unknown future?
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