Donald's Dilemmas
| 2025 July 19, entry no. 1366 Written and read Jerzy Karwelis As I've been evoking, there will be no cucumber seasons. It's like a Chinese proverb, or curse – "May you live in interesting times." And erstwhile we thought it was the end of the story, that there was no way to be bored for a commune, it turned out that it was possible to beat a civilian. "New Normality". And so it is now – the man thought he would breathe on these vacations after the meanders (m)annual everyday life, and here alternatively of laba we have acceleration. Hamletski dilemma Tusk I was curious and inspired by the issue that is increasingly in circulation – Will the Tusk government last until the end of the term? The question is raised by the opposition with its residual media, but besides indirectly leaks the subject even to the media of the "shit stream". This question implies 2 variants of the intention of the asker. 1 is whether the government will last and the another is 1 – will the government want to survive? Let's start with this second variant. Well, governments end their regulation in 2 cases – erstwhile they do not have a majority, but it is then forced, so we are talking about the first case. And erstwhile does the government resign itself? Well, erstwhile he thinks that the fresh hand will at least hold his threatened position if he doesn't even improve it. That's what PiS did in 2007 and he miscalculated. Does Tusk have that situation? Indirectly, he does, but the polls don't even give him a chance to keep his position. This is, with the continuation of his mission and the failure of support, the situation of winning the time you inactive have. Turns out Tusk is falling down, and that's it. continuing trend. They'll only lose, and for the prescribed 2 years they can have ratings, but then already at the urn, not in polls, much worse than they have now. Well, then it's time to take what is. But here comes problem – due to the fact that how to take it now, if it is simply a certain failure? But the further into the forest, the worse. So there's an intermediate way out – let's wait, the situation will change, the others will halt going, the Confederate besides in run 2023 had a percent and up managed to break that fever. In 2 weeks. Then let's wait. You let the coalitions 1 by one, you detonate a fewer lousy threads, you throw it on the PiS, you get to the finish line. So, again, same old. This is simply a rot tactic, but you can share and share rotting fructs. Finally, the effects of fermentation processes can hit weaker heads. And in those 2 years, it's inactive possible to fall down and put here and there, with a public tit. The problem is that so rotting rulers with the remains of their awareness of the situation realize that they are looting for the future. specified an operational attitude will first velocity up their defeat, the more so in the elections in 2 years' time, due to the fact that this is what is expected to last, and secondly, it will increase the punishment imposed by future winners. Crimes and penalties Because in changing power, punishment will be inevitable. Not without the goat Tusk immediately after the triumph of the smiling coalition told her activists: "if we lose, you'll all go to jail." The audience of this sad news read 2 signals: we are fighting for life, and this is “You will sit.”instead of “We will sit“ was already a clear sign that Donald would get distant with it anyway, and the company – not necessarily. This is simply a mafia action – you gotta kill individual at the entrance to the Camorra, due to the fact that then you become ours, due to the fact that only with us will you avoid responsibility, after you have submitted the final proof of irrefutable loyalty. You're cutting off your own way of coming back, which is the anticipation of betrayal. This attitude leads to the constant escalation of the level of proof of loyalty, due to the fact that this fun requires continuous command that we are together, and specified acts inevitably lead to the actions of increasingly shifting towards criminal responsibility. So it's a drug race in a self-destructive race of expanding doses. The second subject is whether Tusk can be forced to resign, So, does anyone take most of it? With the above in perspective, the further the worse, his coalitions besides feel a shadow of bars on their backs. I think meetings with the Kaczyński Holownia They besides had this plot, or promise of any form of abolition. Coalitions, in peculiar coerced to the Constitutional Delict entitled Let's block the President-elect's oath They don't want to pay the bills for this huspa. They do not want to pay political bills either, as all day of their participation in this coalition burdenes them adequate to know whether in future elections they will always enter the Sejm. Now that Kaczyński is besides playing a version of the "technical government", that is, 1 that will overturn the present Sejm and lead to accelerated elections, 1 can inactive talk about any forgiveness towards the coalitions, while after the accelerated elections, and even more so in 2 years – there are no conditions to trade forgiveness. Coalitionmen should take what they are given, alternatively little. Rather, the forgiveness of the wines, not any promises of exotic coalitions in the future, due to the fact that what kind of pacts with parties that have a weakening electorate, and their future coalitions with the PiS, as erstwhile participants of the tusk hucpa, would only become a burden for the hard electorate of the Kaczyński party. Either way, it's not like Tusk had dreamed of, who announced the reconstruction of the government clearly blinking that he would press his coalitions, as if they were guilty of Tusk's defeat. The coalitions, but not the left, have stood up to him adequate to reconstruct She's stuck at a dead end.. Tusk is like a tiny Trump – he promised to deal with the situation in Ukraine in a couple of days, but he gets it They beat his Putins And they're stalling the case, which weakens Donald. Finally, it turned out who the majority was hanging from. Without it, they can't even replace the talker of the Sejm to make a large deal out of Nawrocki's oath. Does the PiS want an accelerated election? Question is, what would be better for PiS? Is this a rot or an accelerated election? I heard a message from the another side that all day of the government's existence is an unrepentant failure and must be terminated as shortly as possible. But I think it's just a communicative statement. The Law and Justice will benefit most from the two-year rot of a smiling coalition. PiS yes, but Poland does not. But hoping for organization business, a two-year rot would do the trick erstwhile and for all. present PO has a second, strong place and now doing an election reset would give her more than 2 years from now. And the Law and Justice dream, oh, dream, self-government. But there's no chance of that, due to the fact that they would require approximately 47% of the voteWhich, with today's divided electorate, seems like a fairy tale. But who will forbid anyone to dream, especially since PiS, as you can see, did not realize much from the presidential election? And the deficiency of reflection, or the incorrect explanation is simply a forced easy one, which follows the triumphalism of the winners – we managed, we pulled Duda 2.0 out of the hat, Kaczyński is simply a genius, what He was meant to appreciate electoral people. So we have support, no deviations from the course, we go well, about Confe for now we stay silent, and erstwhile the run comes (fast or regular), we will get hammered in the blood, and then, if we don't have adequate tickets, we will sit down to make the majority, the same day working to get into the part of the partners. This is what PiS did whenever he needed a partner in his activities – first with the Self-defense and Polish household League, then with the Ziobra or Gowin party. So that these 2 years can besides be a challenge for the Law and Justice. But that's not just 1 reason to reflect on the Law and Justice. Electorate of clenched teeth The election showed the beginning of the end of the song-ahead ass game. People don't want that anymore. In the presidential election, COPIS took about 60%, which is the least in the 3rd Poland. This property of the "electorate of clenched teeth" is for improvement and the race for these voices has already begun. Strangely, COPIS is the least raced here, as it is busy with either himself or a tribal bulwark of its components. And the people (especially young ones) no longer interest As 1 another blames 1 another for the things that stand as they stand erstwhile both tribes argue about them. The electorate already understood, but the COPIS did not. So, whoever takes this good, this fresh attitude, especially since judging by the age groups seized by the anti-system of young people, this electorate, respective 100 1000 for 2 years, will already get individual IDs and will take the electoral card for the first time. For now, Mentzen and Braun have a proposal for them, and Zandberg. And here's the fight for the improvement of this niche. On the display side – silence, not counting respective projects emulating the task PO 2.0, on which they can already fall for only naive ones. What will this process look like in the next 2 years? What about the government, what's more certain, it'll be excavated soon? Who will be ready? fresh initiatives will be besides small time, so they will choice up right-wing crows and crows, to a company with red woodpeckers. fresh ones, if they are, they won't get over it. Only “old” parties are always ready to campaign, the shorter, the better for them. So the rivals wouldn't make it. But mentzeno-brauno-zandbergs can get around, the remainder – no. So there's going to be more of the same thing, even with accelerated elections, but in another deals. But, which is an astonishing phenomenon, all of these calculations, even in a "daunted current", presume the fall of Tusk's government and the transition of power to the another side. Why is that a certainty? The Phenomenon of the Fall of Tusk In addition to the Akolic version, that "nothing is happening" we have 2 worth considering explaining – 1 lighter caliber, the another – most likely the strongest possible. The first variant as it has been said – lighter, states that the government is weak, due to the fact that Tusk himself is weak, stopped like an insect in amber between the ability to gain power and the inability to rule. It is to be lazy, incompetent in anything but PR (although it is clearly weakening here). He is to be helped by even worse coalitions, who have received a power bonus not for competence, but for adding their seats to the pool of smiling coalitions. So this is simply a weak government that said with the Prime Minister's mouth that it would improve, that is... he would take (and it turned out to be a terrible) press spokesperson. For the remainder of the reconstruction, we gotta wait for the second month, which means that the trial is stuck, and the leaks of its future results make us think that it will happen... to grow the government. The second version is blacker – Tuskko is not to go. After all, he was not brought to Poland in a Brussels car to aid strengthen the Polish state. Tusk is to be a tool for weakening Poland as an economical and, above all, a military competitor of Germany. It is not essential to explain that for this adventure the Union is utilized as an emanation of German interests. The tools for spoiling lies on Polish dirt which is not a measure. The main and universal instrument of weakening Poland's position is its debt in a evidence catastrophic pace. There will be nothing to develop, much little military. And it must be said that as a consequence of the war situation in Ukraine, Poland has proved to be the most valuable component of the region, and possibly besides of Europe (which shows the collapse of the continent in this area). And this phenomenon was not unnoticed. Especially by Germany. So the disaster of our finances is weakening our developmental abilities, but besides allowing a fox into a henhouse. The effects of Tusk's action will shortly lead to the excessive deficit limits being exceeded and, in full light of EU law, the Troika will enter from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the planet Bank and (as in the case of the crisis in Greece) will take hand-held governments over the brightest. And don't let anyone think that the deficiency of the euro will save us from anything. It won't. This is the easiest way to take over without a single shot of government over Poland, and Tusk made this way. For years. Armoured 4th Reich But let us return to the military. Europe's engine ran out erstwhile militaryly (with an atomic bomb) France has made an appointment with Germany, which has added their economy to this deal. The Germans go to the military. They stated that they would build the largest army in Europe and they had already declared that they would take work for the east flank of Europe as if we were not there. So the 4th Reich returns, so far without firing, there is no Treaty of Versailles to circumvent – it is even more ridiculous. erstwhile the Germans were secretly armed before the Second War, they were practicing with their russian friends, present this full affair of German arms will take place in broad daylight, for money... members of the Union, mostly victims of the 3rd Reich. Including us. We are dealing with military European funds so that we – as with KPO – We will make up for them, and we will not be able to usage them. So, to defend themselves and for ours to be Germany and France, they will make money from it, at the same time destroying our economy. beautiful good, huh? We will pay instalments of German arms spending, killing the remnants of our economy with the madness of the green order, which just (after the election, so you can) returns to the full courtesan. In order for this number to work, however, you request to have a "man in Warsaw". And the argument that Tusk doesn't command, due to the fact that he can't, due to the fact that he's lazy and has even dumber coalitions is getting dangerously out of date. That's how it's expected to be, not to go out, to owe ourselves, to sign commitments for years of financial captivity that only deepen our deficit. And, attention!, this is an action whose effects are unscrewable in the next 10 years. Even if an enlightened, capable, and consistent chief came upon us. These are unrepentant losses, which yet land as a colony. So the tea's over due to the fact that I don't know what else to do. But the reality of the 3rd Republic always amazed me: erstwhile it seemed that it was already the bottom of the political-social collapse and oppression of the possible for improvement – it always turned out to be just another shelf of abyss, where 1 can only contemplate the phase of the depth of our fall, to decision further down. Can we make it? So I hope, first of all, that the violent reversal of the sovereign from Tusk, however, is the constatuation of the second version – not that it is ineffective, but vice versa: the majority people want its departure precisely due to the fact that they intuitively feel that it is just... effective. It has reached a evidence pace in destroying our achievements and opportunities for development, and it does so in the interests of external power. And feel it in the air that people think so. German Hucpy with German names on the Recovered Lands, these exhibitions “our boys”, are just signs of overzealous, but they are symptomatic. And the people see it. He besides sees 1 thing that, in addition to the madmen, cannot be muddled by any propaganda. He sees the ghost of the war that we will go to in the first line, commanded by German generals, sitting in safe shelters built for ours. Since we are already a reservoir for car waste, windmills, or as last time – for migration mistakes, why not be a stock of cannon meat? And possibly that's why – hopefully this government will finish as shortly as possible before it gets worse, without any multi-story calculations there. possibly we can, due to the fact that in 2 years, there'll be quite a few oncological metastasis and no surgery can save us. And now possibly it'll end with an amputation of the full limb and hopefully this unfortunate COPIS. He wrote and read Jerzy Karwelis All entries on my blog "The diary of the plague". |
