Dredges: 4 scenarios

In fact, in today's planet Russia belongs to the states of the "second sort". It plays an crucial role, yes, but not crucial for civilization. The fundamental strategical conflict is presently ongoing between the US and China (and not Russia, not Iran, not India, etc.).

In turn, I am not certain that China is simply a actual alternate of civilization to the US, because, in the end, even if it keeps its capitalists in line, which allows them to grow together with a gigantic and unique simplification in their poorness areas, the capitalists "national" represent the most active force in this country, i.e. yet a akin set of class-civilization values to the US. And so far, the Communist organization of China may not be able to come up with systemic-class-cultural-civilization alternatives. The Chinese comrades tell me that not only are they able to do this, but they're working on it. I inactive have my doubts. The future will tell.

West vs East and South

There are 4 major options in this global overall configuration for ending current wars (there are about 40 of them in the world!), the most visible of which is, yes, so far the 1 that is going on in Ukraine, but earlier there was a akin situation (and inactive is simply a small bit) in Iraq, Syria, Palestine, Vietnam, etc.). Here are 4 options for exiting the current planet conflict, which can be summarised by the expression “dollar or depolarisation” (not “Ukraine or Russia”!). due to the fact that this subject explains fundamentally why Western countries are on 1 side, and east and South countries are on the another side objectively, more or little visible, in any case without applying sanctions to Russia. That explains why these sanctions are unsuccessful. Thus:

1.

He wins in Ukraine (and not only, therefore) centralized around the dollar and U.S. military-industrial complex, a monopolar block U.S. / Five Eyes NATO / AUKUS / Japan. In this scenario, the planet will proceed to look more or little like before, with a slower only sloping center of the Washington/ Wall Street empire, due to the fact that this camp no longer has creative-civilization drive. He's tired. There are those who believe that, as in the case of Austria after Sadów, it is better to keep the empire as long as possible finished, alternatively of creating “great Germany” on its rubble. What happened after 1918 shows that the Hohenzollerns had any rations, not building “great Germany” on the rubble of the Habsburg defeated.

2.

He wins on the wave of the Russian offensive loose (!!!) coalition of states "counterhegemonist" (Shanghaan Cooperation Organization, BRICS+, i.e. the BRICS countries plus authoritative candidates present for BRICS or to SHOOK) and then there will be a multi-polar planet in which there will be no permanent centre, but where there will be 1 common, alternative, inter-state trade currency that the Chinese and Russians are working on, among others, based on gold, uncommon earth metals, basic energy resources, collation, water and demography. any kind of fresh "transfer ruble" from RPPG times, to which it is already officially returning. It is hard to say whether there will then be peace or there will be further disputes among so many mediate powers, but in any case there will be a fresh arrangement, more or little organized, but for the benefit of more nations than the present order, especially for the smaller nations. Russia in this configuration will be an crucial military, scientific, natural material player, but I uncertainty that it can be a superpower due to the fact that it lacks – for now at least – ideological and social cohesion (classical). And it has, like another developed states, a terrible demographic situation for the next fewer years. Many old people, fewer young people, so small creativity and dynamics. And not many soldiers...

3.

There will be a “remise” consequence between the tired parties for various reasons, and there will be something like a “Korean situation”, i.e., as in 1953, a ceasefire on the achieved front line, and then a peaceful rivalry between the 2 (tired) parties for the following years, with further demographic decline, both Western and Eastern. With the hypothesis expressed in the analysis of the demographer Emmanuel Todd, which on this basis (evolution of demography, reproduction and baby mortality) predicted long before 1985 the USSR's decomposition, it is worth noting that it now provides for akin analysis of the U.S. distribution. In his opinion, therefore, the future fresh civilization will be born alternatively mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa or / and South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh), due to the fact that there is inactive "demographic optimism" and creative activity of societies, especially young people, mostly independently of current governments. It is there that fresh initiatives, enterprises, associations, movements, etc. are created, but not noticed outside. I see this rather precisely from the position of my university among young people coming from these countries. Swahili is becoming a very popular language among Africans of origin, from any country not to come. Among them is the trend of returning to the country of fathers with concrete economic, social or even spiritual projects, in the face of the crushing of European societies in which they were born and in which they lost their faith. They just don't see the future prospects in the West, and you can't underestimate it, due to the fact that it's a crucial phenomenon. Vietnamese, Chinese, Indian and another emigrations do likewise. The return of the most energetic young to the country of fathers or mothers. The Twilight of the West?

4.

Or the U.S. will decide in the face of a possible defeat not so much in Ukraine, but alternatively due to the resulting war's apparent end of the dollar rule, to the planet atomic war (or biological war), that their death as a financial-military superpower would mean the death (almost?) of all mankind. So the old Luxembourg election of 1914 – “socialism or barbarism”? And here, it may be up to the Chinese to offer the devastated Americans the destiny that the Hohenzollerns were able to offer Habsburg after Sadów, that is to say, to become an addition to the future multipolar order.

Russia, no substance what you think about the squad in power in the Kremlin, given its real alternatively than exuberant futurological possibilities, does not request specified a full war, due to the fact that time works on the average meth in its favor. Militaryly, a triumph due to the current systematic and mass killing (a terrible thing!!!) of Ukrainian soldiers under fire of their artillery and the finishing-up of the Ukrainian economy under their masterfully targeted bombings (compared to the US bombings in Iraq, Syria, Yugoslavia, Vietnam, Korea, Germany, etc.), and economical triumph due to the successful overcoming of Western sanctions. This will naturally origin the classical military-economic war to decision towards Russia's victory. However, the real winners will be China, Iran and respective another countries, including Turkey, India, etc.

Possible winners

Russian communists believe that the logic of the present war is moving towards the crushing of the current Putin government and the return of socialism to the erstwhile USSR, with the aid of Chinese comrades. We'll see. ...But the fresh success of Chinese diplomacy, which in a masterly way led to (a terrible otherwise) Saudi Arabia to make peace with Iran, is simply a strong proof that China is becoming a 3rd planet recognized arbitrator between the parties. All the better for Yemenis and Syrians at last, but can this mean that China can become a fresh centre for restoring civilizational creation in east Europe, the Muslim world, Africa, Latin America and Asia, let alone Western Europe and North America? I wouldn't be so certain about that hypothesis. So the key issue is who (and where?) is able to propose for their region or for the full planet a fresh imagination of civilization-social, capable of kidnapping masses, mobilising young people and creating the seeds of a fresh philosophical-ideological-social strategy in the face of the degeneration of the current global capitalism.

There are also scenarios

Here are in any case 4 scenarios that I formulate on the basis of presently widespread hypotheses in the planet among different strategists, futurologists, thinkers, philosophers, demographers, about what might happen. past is always a small richer than theoretical scenarios, due to the fact that the natural masses are always more creative than the purely intellectual elite, but the scenarios about give a image of the overall creative capabilities of individual political, cultural and ideological-philoso-religious entities in the world.

Which of these scenarios is most beneficial to us (or least unfavourable)? That's the question. Unless individual can come up with a 5th scenario...

Prof. Bruno Drwęski