The president of the United States called it the Iron Dome for America, a bow to the celebrated Israeli air defence system. However, the imagination of the fresh generation Trump system, including space lasers, is in fact much closer to the alleged Ronald Reagan Star Wars Program, launched in 1983, at the highest of the Cold War.
Creating something like Star Wars 2.0 would cost hundreds of billions of dollars. The technological challenges are huge. Experts besides warned that this initiative could provoke China and Russia to take countermeasures that would undermine its effects. This is partially why the NGO Atomic Scientists Bulletin has shifted its "death watch" by a second this week.
What's Trump's plan for a rocket shield?
The U.S. President's order, signed on Monday January 27, gives Secretary of defence Pete Hegseth 60 days to make a U.S. defence Plan against ballistic rocket attacks, hypersonic and advanced maneuvering missiles.
Trump's strategy is comprehensive, highly costly and differs from the Israeli Iron Dome.
That strategy only defends tiny areas from low-flying short-range missiles that are not atomic missiles. Trump's initiative aims to capture intercontinental ballistic missiles that decision 100 times further and 7 times faster. The United States is besides nearly 450 times larger than Israel.
Instead, Trump's order concerns the deployment of "space interception devices" — satellite networks, any equipped with lasers. Another layer of interception devices is expected to work at lower altitudes if lasers fail.
Trump besides demands “the ability to overcome rocket attacks before firing ” — in another words, a strategy that destroys an archer, not just an arrow.
Analysts say sealed, Space rocket shield It's almost impossible.
“There is no magic safety blanket,” said Tom Karako, a leading rocket expert at the Washington think-tank Centre for strategical and global Studies (CSIS).
How would that work and how much could it cost?
The detection, capture and demolition of ballistic atomic missiles during their alleged booster phase, i.e. 3 to 5 minutes before entering orbit, would require laser beams effective over hundreds of kilometres. specified technology does not be today.
This is partially due to the fact that laser energy heats the surrounding atmosphere and reduces the power of the beam. This effect is tiny in the close vacuum of space, but it is much larger erstwhile the beam hits the Earth's atmosphere.
Powering satellites that launch lasers would besides require having mini atomic reactors or an advanced solar panel system.
— It is not impossible, but... it would require quite a few investigation and investment, and that would take time," said Fabian Hoffmann, a rocket expert at the Norwegian Oslo atomic task investigation centre.
There's besides the cost Trump would gotta convince Congress.
The 2012 U.S. National Academy of discipline study stated that even a "restricted" space defence strategy would require 650 satellites. Their cost is about $300 billion (about PLN 1 trillion 200 billion). Analysts besides warned that specified a strategy would be susceptible to anti-satellite weapons — specified as space atomic weapons that Russia late developed (as reported by the U.S. intelligence).
— The improvement of space rocket defence systems has been abandoned many times due to the fact that they are expensive, very hard to make and easy to destroy," said Laura Grego, investigation manager of the Global safety Programme in the non-governmental organization Union of Concerted Scientists.
Would the ground strategy be more practical?
Effective technologies already exist. Ukraine successfully utilized western systems — specified as the American Patriots and German IRIS-T — to destruct incoming Russian ballistic and hypersonic missiles.
However, costs are a problem. The United States already has a mid-range ground defence program worth $60 billion (about PLN 240 billion). It consists of 44 interceptive missiles deployed in Alaska and California, whose task is to knock down long-range missiles coming from countries specified as North Korea.
But since each 1 costs over $50 million (about PLN 200 million), extending this strategy to the full United States would be highly costly.
— You can't put active defence wherever it would be needed to defend cities, critical infrastructure and military facilities," said Stacie Pettyjohn of the Center for a fresh American safety think tank.
Moreover, a method analysis carried out in 2000 showed that even a little developed country specified as North Korea could usage long-known countermeasures specified as decoys or ‘cooled shroud’ which covers a atomic warhead to confuse interceptor missiles.
— Achieving a comprehensive defence against Russia's much larger rocket arsenals and China would require astronomical spending — and this without unprecedented technological breakthroughs — said Zhao Tong, a elder worker of Carnegie Endowment for global Peace.
How can opponents of America react?
Even moderately successful "Star Wars 2.0" would deprive Russia and China of their retaliatory abilities and could prompt them to launch an accelerated arms race to keep atomic parity.
Michael Evans/The White House/Getty Images, Getty Images/ Handout / Getty ImagesU.S. president Ronald Reagan launched “Star Wars” — a program of arms race with the USSR in space
— If 1 can show that he can defend himself while having the ability to strike first, it is destabilizing," said Manpreet Sethi, head of the atomic program at the Centre for Air Power Studies in fresh Delhi.
— This is simply a threat that major rivals cannot and will not ignore," said Eric Heginbotham, China's atomic programme expert at the American Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
— Our intentions may be defensive... but whatever our intentions, if our abilities are real, This will be seen as the top threat “He added.
Enemies could then take countermeasures. For example, Russia could burden more atomic warheads into existing ballistic missiles or mark weaker defence areas.
— Opponents could simply redirect attacks on many unprotected population clusters, making the defence of selected locations strategically meaningless," said Zhao.
Analysts argued that a more sober approach would include US action to reduce country-specific strategical atomic arsenals, as Trump supported in a fresh speech in Davos.
In the meantime, conventional rocket threats could be solved by strengthening systems at lower altitudes. They function on the ground and on American warships. Costs would inactive be huge, but specified an approach would be technically feasible and possibly avoid another arms race.
“The United States should focus on strengthening rocket defence at lower levels while trying to keep the current balance of power in the atomic domain,” said Hoffmann.
Is the task possibly lucrative for SpaceX Elona Muska? Part of a space-based program would require hundreds of satellites to launch — This marketplace is presently dominated by SpaceX Elona Muska. Although the U.S. government has another contractors capable of sending carrier satellites into space, Muska rockets have more burden capacity, greater cargo volume and are much cheaper than most competitors. They are besides fired with a much higher frequency — last year 1 start was held on average all 3 days.
— Many people can make money," said Grego of the Union of Concerted Scientists.
However, SpaceX already has government contracts worth $20 billion (approximately PLN 80 billion) and would most likely gotta devote the bandwidth reserved for the Starlink constellation — the company's largest gross source. All of this on the presumption that the space program that Laura Grego described as “fantasia” will be approved by legislature and will continue.
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