Since the beginning of the year ruble He's strong. with dollar by almost 40%. In terms of the rate of increase in profitability, the Russian currency has become almost virtually “more costly than gold”. While the ruble in the OTC marketplace increased by 38% on the dollar, the gold only increased by 23 percent in the same period. The strengthening of the Russian currency did not prevent either 20% Increase in budgetary expenditure, nor slow down the growth rate of the Russian economy.
The dollar rate has been influenced by respective factors, but the crucial thing is that no of them are fundamental.
First, origin Donald Trump: The escalation of his trade wars weakened the dollar, and the very fact of the negotiations between Washington and Moscow heats abroad investors' interest in Russian assets with advanced profitability.
Secondly, Russia has a valid high interest rates (which suppress home request for imports) and sanctions to reduce the outflow of capital, and the government is ready to support ruble by selling currency from sovereign reserves, as it did in April due to a shortage of 65.6 billion rubles (according to the current rate of over PLN 3 billion) of planned oil and gas revenues.
Compared to the beginning of the year the ruble is present 26 percent stronger than the dollar — and under a 12-percent fall in oil prices, notes the economist of 1 of the European banks. The main origin in the success of ruble are the large expectations of possible benefits for Russia "from the public office of the US President's administration". “Without this factor, the ruble rate would now be not 80 rubles per dollar, but around 95 (4 PLN 48 gr)”, says Medusa expert. If we look at the failure of Europe and the United States to effort to impose sanctions on the Kremlin together, the marketplace is not at all wrong.
When will the ruble weaken? How does the current course affect prices?
With another factors unchanged rubles It will decrease by 10-15 percent by the end of the year (i.e. up to 88–92 rubles for $1), since the drop in oil prices has not yet been full included in the course, says an anonymous economist from 1 of the Russian analytical centers.
According to a high-ranking origin that talked to the Reuter Agency, the rate of 100 rubles (4 PLN 72 gr) for 1 dollar is completely satisfactory to the government, as it will let to supplement the lost budget gross due to a decrease in gross from exports of natural materials caused by strong currency, sanctions and a decrease in planet oil prices.
Goldman Sachs' investment bank is expecting 100 rubles for $1 already this summer.
Analysts surveyed by the CBR in April predicted a dollar exchange rate of around 95 rubles (4 PLN 48 gr).
The Ministry of economical improvement expects a dollar rate of over 98 rubles (4 PLN 62 gr) by the end of the year.
Rubel is indeed besides strong, and the fall in oil prices may weaken it,” admits the main macro-economicist close to the government of the Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting of CMAKP Dmitry Bielousov. In his opinion, there is simply a hazard of excessive weakening of the ruble “because of purely Psychological‘.
Commercial crisis
So far, strengthening the ruble has helped slow down inflationIn April 2025, Rosstat estimated inflation to be 0.4% at 0.65% in March, 0.81% in February and 1.23% in January. According to CMAPP, a group of "non-food products without fruit and vegetable products" has been seeing deflation for 5 weeks in a row (−0.45% overall, of which −0.31% in the last 3 weeks), which has already awakened Analytic anxiety.
The combination of a crisis of sales and deflation of non-food commodities with an increase in interest rates, rent and leasing charges in commercial organisations, etc., could make trade an area of very serious crisis. The main origin of inflation is presently food products and medicines, with an almost uniform increase in drug prices (0.53 percent in 3 weeks).
— In the last month, inflation has already been rather close to the mark (if you look at the temporary indicators on an yearly basis), but its stableness is mostly based on a strong ruble and a reasonably advanced interest rate, and all this is not free, so I am more than convinced that In the summer, the base interest rate will fall “ says the economist from the Russian analytical center. A series of careful reductions may start in June, according to his colleague at the European bank.
According to him, it will take respective years for the rate to return to 10% only in an optimistic scenario. At the last April gathering Central bank He has not yet decided to soften his policies, and for the 4th time in a row he has maintained the basic interest rate at a evidence advanced level of 21% per year. The lowering of the base interest rate will support the cold economy, but will put force on the ruble and encourage its weakening.
NATALIA COLESNIKOVA / AFPMoscow residents under the cantor, July 2023, photograph
Are fresh sanctions dangerous to ruble?
New 17th EU sanction package under force from Hungary, which inactive buys from Russia not only gas sent by pipeline, but besides oil (for them an exception to the embargo was made), turned out to be powerless. After talking to Putin Trump, to the disappointment of Europe, he stated that he would not introduce new sanctions against Russia. "Because I think there is simply a chance to accomplish something, and if we do, it could be even worse. But the time may come erstwhile this will happen," he said.
The main argument of the 17th package is sanctions against law 200 vessels of the alleged shadow fleet. However, the problem is that the EU does not have its own operating mechanics to monitor the restrictions introduced, which are effective only erstwhile supported by the US, i.e. in the face of threats of secondary sanctions. Currently, according to the Washington think tank research, Brookings Institute, the lion's condition of tankers, which complement the Russian oil fleet, comes from Greek and another European shipowners.
EU initially planned to browse oil price ceiling every 2 months, and now, 3 years after the imposition of sanctions, Brussels has proposed to discuss its simplification under the 18th package. However, fewer people respect this limit. Sources of the Reuter Agency state that there is simply a simplification in the maximum price from the current 60 US (PLN 225) to 50 US (PLN 187) per barrel, which is at least logical — as early as April, in the face of fresh US trade duties, the price of Russian Urals oil fell below 50 US.
The West is gone. painful tools to strengthen sanctions against Russia. The only thing that can work is very harsh. Secondary sanctions To all who trade in any way with Russia. “ It didn’t happen, and I don’t think it will, ” says an economist from a Russian think tank. Maintaining specified sanctions is costly and hard to control. The introduction of restrictions that cannot be controlled means a failure of image, let alone a deterioration in relations with countries facing secondary sanctions, concludes Medusa.
