One would think that Russian president Vladimir Putin should be willing to scope a peace agreement in Ukraine. The casualties of the war he started are estimated at 700,000 killed and wounded Russian soldiers. Putin inactive loses up to 1,000 soldiers a day, without gaining almost no territory. Its economy is moving towards stagflation, and the prices of key consumer items scope zenite.
Moreover, president Donald Trump makes it possible for Putin to scope an agreement. In a mad rush to the “room” Trump fundamentally paved the way for him to the negotiating table through preceding concessions and bowing towards the propaganda lies of the Kremlin. Since accepting the Russian thesis that the invasion was a consequence to Ukraine's aspirations to NATO membership, by insisting that Ukraine surrender the territory occupied by Russia, after depriving Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenski of legitimacy and effectively undermining the anticipation of utilizing European peace forces by refusing to grant them an American safety guarantee, The White home accepted most of Moscow's rhetoric and conditions.
However, alternatively of taking these concessions into your pocket, accept the ceasefire and go to what might become a victory, if not a triumph, Putin stalls. Trump Emissary, Stephen Witkoff, held a 3rd gathering with the Russian president on Friday, which ended with as small advancement as the erstwhile two. 2 days later, Russia showed its continued opposition to Trump's efforts for peace, carrying out fatal attack during Palm Sunday servicesIn which respective twelve believers died.
The current gap between so many White home and zero quo Putin's side could yet get Trump's attention. erstwhile under the condition of a ceasefire in the Black Sea basin, which Ukrainian drones mostly cleared of Russian warships and provided undisturbed commercial shipping, Putin demanded that Ukraine be deprived of sovereignty by making it a United Nations force, Trump yet attacked, threatening secondary sanctions against Russian oil. On Friday after a failed meeting, Witkoff published a frustrated message: “Russia must take action. besides many people, thousands a week, in a terrible and pointless war."
The fact that has so far eluded Trump and his administration is that Putin is not truly curious in negotiating peace with Ukraine. Trump's inability to see this apparent fact mostly stems from the same 3 dead fields, which pose a problem to practically all US presidents in relation to Russia: the ignorance of the country, unlimited belief in its individual ability to convince and inability to appreciate the ideological and political imperatives that drive authoritarian regimes. In all 3 areas, Donald Trump seems to surpass his predecessors in the White House.
Here are 7 reasons why Putin is stalling.
1. War is simply a justification for Putin's dictatorship
There is no better global context for dictatorship than war. As the architect of the Cold War kept in the ranks of the russian Union, George Kennan, erstwhile put it, “advised leaders had to treat the outside planet as hostile due to the fact that it provided the only excuse for dictatorship without which they did not know how to rule.”
When income and economical growth slowed down during Putin's 3rd word as president (2012-2018), he changed the basis for his regime's legitimacy to militarized patriotism. This was first manifested in the invasion and business of Crimea in 2014 and later in the decision to invade Ukraine. Putin inactive needs Russia to be harassed by enemies, otherwise there is no excuse for militarized patriotism and increasing repressions that fuel his regime.
2. Putin likes militarism
3. Russia's economy depends on war
Since the full-scale invasion in 2022, the Russian economy has been restructured to support the war, and the transition to an economy from peacetime will not be painless. Consumers have already suffered: year-on-year increases in prices of basic products specified as bread, poultry and pasta are double-digit, and potatoes cost twice as much as before the war. The GDP of the country is expected to increase by only 1.4-1.6% this year and there is no hope of a fast recovery at the Central Bank rate of 21%.
Daily shortages abruptly become greater erstwhile they can no longer be justified by war sacrifices. War Village List, says the Russian proverb: “War will erase everything.”
4. The elimination of war bonuses and another privileges can origin social unrest
It is an highly hard task for all government to put an end to the expectations that society is accustomed to. The elimination of the bonus for enlisting in the army, wages for soldiers and pay-outs for the families of the deceased, which are by orders of magnitude larger than the average national income and which have lifted any of Russia's mediocre areas out of poverty, will surely origin discontent. Hundreds of thousands of war veterans, many bitter, filled with horror and the cruelty of Stalin's planet War II, which Putin full reflected in Ukraine, would besides anticipate privileges and promotions. Meanwhile, the increase in the number of crimes committed by veterans has already become a problem which the Kremlin is afraid about, and the situation may deteriorate with reduced benefits.
The same applies to civilians, many of whom are employed in the defence sector. Accustomed to advanced salaries, prestige and occupation safety in Russia's expanded military-industrial complex, workers in hundreds of thousands will barely welcome the return to their humble jobs from peacetime — assuming they can inactive find them in the shrunk civilian sector.
5. Changes destabilize authoritarian regimes
Any fast change in politics, even objectively for the better, poses a hazard to political leaders. This is peculiarly actual in the case of authoritarian regimes, which at the same time appear to be resistant to external pressures and dangerously lacking flexibility.
AA/ABACA/ PAPRussian president Vladimir Putin during the military parade on triumph Day, Moscow, Russia, 9 May 2023.
6. Putin is an opportunist and a daredevil
Every fresh concession produces an increasingly insolent ultimatum from Putin. The more Trump offers as an incentive, the more Putin will likely request more. It's a (putinian) art of making deals.
7. Putin needs victory, not peace.
Putin's most crucial origin of hesitation is that peace is not a precedence for him. It's a victory. The only thing that can overcome the instability associated with the end of the war is simply a triumph that looks awesome adequate to aid the Kremlin balance postwar problems and memory of the dead and wounded — without resorting to armed repression to cope with public discontent. In wars, fighters begin to negociate erstwhile they are convinced that the negotiating table will do better than on the battlefield. “Better” for Putin almost surely means nothing but the surrender of Ukraine. Incentives or rhetorical threats failed to deprive him of that hope.
The crucial thing is that Putin doesn't have a good adequate reason yet to agree to end the war.
What will change his mind? The carrots offered by Trump must be replaced with sticks — an effective and consistent policy to make war cost more than peace. Implementation of secondary sanctions on Russian oil importers as Trump late proposedwould be 1 of those measures. Closing gaps in sanctions imposed on the Russian energy sector by covering Russia's leading oil company Rosnieft and the largest LNG maker Novatek would be another step in the right direction, with the completion of Russian LNG imports to Europe. Closing the gap in sanctions against major banks specified as Rosselkhozbank and the Austrian Raiffeisenbank would besides aid Putin focus attention. It is clear that stopping giving and receiving U.S. military assistance to Ukraine and instead, a crucial increase would be impressive.
Trump and his negotiators request to realize that Putin is going to go to alleged peace talks at the minute only to codified the Ukrainian surrender. He will wait until he is certain that he will accomplish this goal. There is no shortcut to convince him otherwise — but that the cost of his hold will become more painful.
