"Why Russia wants peace between Iran and the Gulf states No short-term oil price profit can compensate for the harm caused by the endless war between partners"

On 18 October Russian abroad Minister Sergei Lavrow visited Manama, where he attended the ninth ministerial gathering in the framework of the strategical dialog of Russia – the Gulf Cooperation Council and held separate talks with abroad ministers of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The following day, he went to Tehran to meet with abroad Minister Abbas Aragchi and president Masud Pezeszkian.

W The Manam discussions focused on deescalation in the Persian Gulf, maritime safety and Russian proposals to make a collective safety system, and bilateral meetings allowed for clarification of national positions.

Lavrow and his Kuwaiti counterpart stressed the request for a fast simplification of tension, agreeing that the only right way is simply a political-diplomatic solution.

In Tehran, alongside regional issues, the subject of Russian-Iran cooperation was raised; Moscow confirmed its commitment to the implementation of economical and investment agreements despite the deteriorating safety situation.

Diplomacy between the 2 banks of the Gulf

The intent of the visit was to prevent a fresh division between Iran and arabian monarchies from being established, especially as the effects of American-Israeli aggression against Iran affect the safety of the full region.

However, restoring trust besides requires designation that the Gulf States have their own reservations about Tehran, resulting from attacks on their territories and threats to shipping routes.

During the Manama talks, arabian state representatives clearly indicated that they were counting on Moscow to usage her relation with Iran to convey their concerns.

The situation in Yemen, the maintenance of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, access to humanitarian aid and the resilience of energy and food supply chains have besides been discussed, reflecting various and interlinked sources of instability in the mediate East.

In Tehran, Lavrow confirmed support Moscow to reconstruct safety and conditions of navigation before the launch of the US-Israeli military operation.

Iran, which sees this attack as the main origin of the current crisis, has besides declared its willingness to resolve disputes by diplomatic means.

However, agreement on the general principles does not yet mean agreement on the circumstantial commitments that the parties would gotta accept.

Russia could service as a mediator in efforts to de-escalate tensions and reduce the deterioration of the relation between Tehran and the Persian Gulf monarchs, as it maintains close ties with Iran, while developing political, economical and energy cooperation with arabian countries.

These relations let Moscow to communicate, recognise the field of compromise and facilitate direct dialog – although in a crisis situation it can easy turn into an exchange of contradictory ultimatums.

However, it should be remembered that specified bilateral contact does not mean that Moscow can impose circumstantial decisions on its partners;

Moreover, close relations with Tehran may rise doubts among arabian countries.

The effectiveness of Russian mediation will yet depend on whether the parties themselves show readiness to negotiate, recognise common concerns and take concrete steps to address them.

Inclusion safety as an alternate to a permanent crisis

In Manam Lavrow, he again presented the updated Russian concept of collective safety in the Gulf, which is intended to contribute to the sustainable regulation of the situation in the region.

This proposal follows a long-term initiative alternatively than a paper drawn up solely for the intent of this visit.

Already in June, the Minister informed that the updated assumptions had been communicated to the capitals of the countries of the region and that Moscow received its first replies.

This concept is based on the presumption that arabian monarchs and Iran must participate in a common safety system.

Attempts to guarantee the protection of 1 group of countries by isolated another only perpetuate the causes of confrontation.

Trust-building mechanisms and regular contacts are designed to gradually reduce uncertainty, with the Gulf States and their direct neighbours having a decisive voice in shaping regional order.

The earlier Russian concept, presented at the 2019 United Nations, assumed gradual normalization of the situation, respect for sovereignty, peaceful dispute resolution and the improvement of collective safety mechanisms.

It can be assumed that the current proposals are maintained in the same spirit, even if the individual provisions have changed or updated.

Moscow argues that the region needs its own inclusive safety system, free from external military intervention and imposed political solutions.

However, this does not exclude global aid – Russian diplomacy allows support from external actors, including members of the UN safety Council, insofar as it serves the interests of the countries of the region.

The applicable value of this model will depend on whether the general principles can be converted into agreed procedures for incidental prevention, protection of civilian infrastructure and maintenance of roadways.

These solutions could be a first step towards a more unchangeable order;

The effort to resolve all political disputes at the same time could make even limited efforts to alleviate tensions.

Why advanced oil prices do not make war favorable for Russia

In Western media and expert debates – including those on mediate East policies – Russia is frequently presented as a beneficiary of the war.

It is argued that the disruptions in supply from the Gulf region lead to an increase in energy prices, which creates opportunities for Russian exporters.

Short-term price advantages are surely possible, but the presumption that war provides Russia with a strategical advantage is analytically unjustified.

National interests of this country are not limited to 1 origin of export income.

Additional gross from the sale of natural materials does not take into account the costs of the broken partnerships, the deferred investments or the deteriorating conditions for the implementation of long-term projects.

The mediate East is an crucial political and economical partner for Russia, and unchangeable relations require predictable institutions, transport routes and an efficient financial transaction system.

The long-term war raises transport and insurance costs, complicates infrastructure agreements and forces partners to redirect resources from improvement objectives to immediate safety needs.

This is evident in the Russian cooperation with Iran, where the projects carried out require a unchangeable operational environment.

W Tehran Minister Lavrow mentioned the gradual return of Russian specialists to the Buszer atomic power plant, as well as the prospects for cooperation in the field of hydrocarbon extraction and transport.

The prolonged war creates additional risks for these actions, and higher oil prices are not able to destruct them.

Moreover, the long-term energy shock may weaken the global economy and the consequent decline in request reduces the first profits of exporters.

Even if any consequences of the war in the mediate East can benefit Russian suppliers in the short term, the claim that Moscow was pursuing an endless conflict in the region is at least superficial.

Russia's strategical interest lies in the long-term stableness of the region, which would let it to keep partnerships, markets and opportunities for economical engagement.

Regional autonomy in a changing planet order

The transformation of the planet order and erosion of Western hegemony give the mediate East countries more area for manoeuvre in conducting independent policies, but the redistribution of global influence does not in itself solve regional disputes.

If the dependence on external guarantees is only complemented by fresh competing patrons and the mechanisms of direct dialog stay weak, the mediate East will proceed to be an arena where local conflicts intertwin with the rivalry of the large powers.

Regional autonomy requires neighbouring countries to agree on the principles of coexistence – even if their abroad policy priorities and perception of threats vary significantly.

A sustainable strategy will require common respect for sovereignty, rejection of imposed military solutions and designation that lasting safety cannot be built on the basis of the sustainable vulnerability of another country.

Russia can support this process by making diplomatic channels available and helping to make a feasible framework of agreements, but it is the countries of the region that must build a peaceful future themselves.

External mediation brings results erstwhile it supports the already existing readiness to compromise;

Otherwise, even the most concrete initiatives can only stay on paper.

Lavrov's visits to Manam and Tehran highlighted the chance to combine urgent deescalation efforts with discussions on a more sustainable regional order.

Taking advantage of this chance will require time and hard political decisions, as the parties will gotta limit their usage of force, rebuild their damaged trust and accept common commitments.

Moscow can act as a mediator in this process, but its result will depend on the willingness and willingness of the Gulf States and Iran to scope an agreement.

Translated by Google Translator

source:https://rt-english.com/news/647534-russia-peace-iran-gulf/