Debate: Threat of lethal escalation

Below we print fragments of the war debate co-organised by “Think Poland” with the participation of American, British and Romanian guests. The discussion was organized and conducted by Mateusz Piskorski and Konrad Hand. The full is available on Think Polish tv channel on YouTube.

Piskorski: Where is the real red line of Moscow, which could lead to an even greater escalation of the conflict, besides territorially? Senator Sosoaca, do you have any thoughts on this?

Sosoaca: I have no uncertainty about it. Especially considering what happened in the last fewer weeks. Romania, like Poland, is at hazard of this escalation. Both countries are utilized by NATO to send weapons to Ukraine. Moreover, Romania has become a hub for NATO and Ukrainian pilots. So this is where the pilots train, and then they attack Russia. I made an online survey, me and my party, to consult people, whether they like peace or war. Apart from the fact that the website on which we did this was taken over by government hackers, the survey showed that over two-thirds of the people wanted peace. Thus, the authorities know that they would have no chance of involving Romania in the war if specified a referendum were held. Therefore, the government does not even plan to ask its citizens what they truly want. The will of citizens is in complete opposition to decisions taken by the authorities in Bucharest. Romania is closely linked in this dangerous quest with the Republic of Moldova. These 2 countries are working together to annoy and provoke the Russian Federation and affect us in a confrontation that does not concern us.

Worse still, the war approached the confederate border of Romania, in the Odessa region, where Russian drones bombed Ukrainian ports erstwhile the grain deal ended. It is only a fewer kilometres from Romania; 22 kilometres from our port town of Głacz. Romania is now the preferred destination for Ukrainian cereals, which can no longer be transported via the corridor set by cereal agreements. Romania helps Ukraine to export Ukrainian grain, risking being drawn into conflict. In my last statement, I asked NATO and the European Union to note that the Romanian people do not agree to any concession tariff for Ukraine. I asked the Bucharest rulings to ban imports of cereals from Ukraine due to the fact that they should like Romanian interests, the territorial integrity of Romania and the defence of Romanian citizens.

Piskorski: I wanted to ask Mr Grzegorz Braun what his opinion was about the hazard of escalation, especially erstwhile it comes to Poland. Member?

Braun: Thank you very much. I was hoping to hear more about what they say, about opinion, about looking at people who have the privilege and comfort of looking at us from afar. possibly they see any hope and have any good advice. Looking from here, from Warsaw, we can unfortunately see that we have become hostages to the authors of this large show, which has been taking place for centuries on our Central European stage. Of course, the authorities in Warsaw, the government, the president, are not the authors of this scenario, they are following it. We can see visible signs of an crucial public change that was taken by surprise a year ago. The public has not heard any skeptical of Ukraine votes a year ago.

Today, this public opinion seems to be increasingly open. We have any statistics, any studies that tell us that our slogan and our campaign, which we started last summer, stops Poland from becoming more Ukrainian. This password is definitely better read now than a year ago. So we have a small smaller game here in Poland. The clock is ticking, time is moving out, the authorities gotta make a decision. If they don't, they might lose support. Polish society is increasingly tired of Ukrainian domination, which resulted from a circumstantial Polish abroad and interior policy. This is simply a very crucial moment. I wouldn't bet any stakes here, but in 2 weeks we'll see – either elections or martial law.

Piskorski: Mr Williamson, do you think – are we truly on the verge of an abyss and is it possible that the situation will lead to atomic war, as any say?

Williamson: – Well, I hope not, of course. I think that the political class and the corporate media in Britain have lost their senses and are surely provoking it. They did their best to manipulate public opinion. I am impressed by Grzegorz Braun's remark about being hostages. I think that's a very good word. Britain has undoubtedly become specified a hostage; we have seen the imposition of sanctions on Russia, which have affected us in the form of disastrously advanced costs of living. It's not just a crisis, it's a disaster for millions of people. In Britain we have about 14.5 million people surviving in poverty. We already have problems with the crisis of surviving costs and expanding energy bills. People are now facing rising food costs, which I believe is straight linked to the war in Ukraine. Despite this, politicians proceed to talk in a calm speech about the importance of defeating Russia and continuing to transfer arms to Ukraine in order to keep this replacement war as long as they can. This, of course, causes and builds up the difficulties people face.

We heard any talk about the anticipation of a limited atomic war, about winning it. This is completely absurd, this is insane. Like Tony Benn said – if we can find money to kill people, we can find money and aid them. Britain is simply a very prosperous country and could surely do more. Of course, the most crucial thing we gotta push for is peace. There is not a single policy for this minute in our parliament that does so. I am full of hope that we will proceed to do our best to influence public opinion and that we will not witness the escalation of the conflict to the level of atomic war, due to course it would be the end of humanity. As you know, cognition is power. If we can inform people, I hope that we can exert force on decision-makers to control this in a wiser way.

Piskorski: Christopher Williamson highlighted the economical and financial aspect of the full conflict. What do you think, Mr. Galloway, about Seymour Hersh's articles on the gas pipeline detonation in the Baltic Sea and the consequences of these explosions for Europe?

Galloway: This is all a historical echo, a historical resonance that is truly very meaningful. If I may address my dear friends in Poland: this is 1 of the large paradoxes of history, that Poland, which suffered so much as a consequence of an alliance between utmost Ukrainian nationalists and Nazis, after the genocide in the east, now acts as an ally of the banders, these dark forces, the Black Sotnia, as a consequence of the decision of the Polish government. It's indecent. I was very constructed by Mr Braun, proceeding that Poles were beginning to verify their previously unequivocal support for this NATO substitute war against Russia. This situation costs the US alone $140 billion that Joe Biden gave Ukraine. This is seen on the streets of Philadelphia, in horror canons, in drug addiction, homelessness, crime, racial conflicts in the United States.

You asked at first what red lines are for Russia. president Putin scratched Russian red lines 15 years ago in Munich. He's been ignored always since, until now. Before we know it, we can cross Russia's red lines. The Russian government was very average in conducting this war. More than the British and American government erstwhile they murdered people in Iraq 20 years ago. We destroyed all of Iraq's infrastructure in just 24 hours. Russian leadership was very moderate, but this patience should not be confused with resignation. The Russians realize the gravity of the situation. This is the red line. The dissolution of the Russian Federation is simply a red line. Any military advancement by NATO that threatens to break up the Russian Federation (whose of course Crimea is an integral part—historically, for centuries)—will be a reason to declare war on Russia to the protectors of Ukraine behind it, including your and our country. So we should halt the arming, funding, propaganda in this replacement war. In short, we should not exceed this final red line. And as for the atomic war... The full planet is lined up to see the movie "Oppenheimer", but it seems that we have not learned what Oppenheimer has learned himself. The first weapon of this kind to enter the battlefield will bring the end of human civilization.

Piskorski: Colonel Macgregor, we're talking about escalation. How would you estimation that risk? As for the successive stages of this escalation, are there any real red lines for Moscow that could lead to it?

Macgregor: I think the alleged red lines have already been crossed in most cases. Hence, I believe the Russians have come to the conclusion that they must prepare for the worst. I don't think they believe anything Washington says anymore. And Warsaw became a clear enemy to them. I do not know whether any of the messages from Washington or Warsaw would be taken seriously by the Russians. I besides think the Russians have decided that until there is simply a atomic war, everything is acceptable. They frequently made it clear that until they were attacked with atomic weapons, they would not usage it themselves. due to the fact that there's no real reason why they could. And they follow this strategical doctrine.

They win, and the Ukrainians are in tragic condition. It is so hard to imagine that the condition of Ukraine and its armed forces will let it to last longer. So now it's not about what the Russians will do. If they hear nothing from the West and no 1 negotiates with them, they will finish their conquest in east Ukraine. Then, I fishy they'll cross Dniepr and start heading west. They will surely not tolerate Ukraine joining NATO. That's not possible. Unless the West takes a step forward and says that no substance what the fresh Ukrainian state looks like, regardless of its size and possible boundaries, it will be a neutral country. Then I guess we can start talking to the Russians seriously. Without this, I cannot see the end of this story, but to shift hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers to the Polish border.

Piskorski: Recently, we learned from the American edition of “Newsweek” that the CIA's main staff for operations in Ukraine operates from our territory, from Poland. We didn't know that before. Mr. Johnson, how do you feel about the escalation and plans of Biden's current administration? Is it possible that the conflict escalates outside Ukraine?

Johnson: Russia has been very patient so far. She would have reason to hit military targets in Poland, due to the fact that Poland facilitates the transport of military equipment, supplies, personnel to Ukraine. We had terrorist attacks, any of them in Russia. Especially military planning, the ability to mark civilian objects, as they did in Moscow... At any point this will require a reaction from Russia. I think we have already seen what deployed rockets in Poland and Romania have the top reach. The rocket battery is capable of carrying a atomic warhead, it is already a possible red line erstwhile it comes to Vladimir Putin. He raised this problem very straight with Joe Biden in December 2021. After all, Biden ignored Putin's appeals. Let's callback what the Soviets did erstwhile they placed missiles in Cuba in 1961 and 1962. I think this is 1 of the red lines we're approaching with all terrorist attack that takes place in Russia. Russia is under force to take revenge, to mark tactical operations centers, to connect operations centres. In these centers are NATO personnel, American intelligence officers, British intelligence officers. There is simply a advanced probability that in the future, if they have not yet suffered casualties, there will be casualties among them. I think it's a misunderstanding that many people perceive Russian peculiar military operations as a manifestation of weakness, inability and incompetence. They do not realize that Russia is very focused on avoiding civilian casualties, unlike Ukraine, and limiting the harm it does. all day and all additional terrorist attack, I can see that the line is fading and Russia may consider it exceeded.

Piskorski: I see. What are the limits of United States support? I think we're interested. Are there any restrictions on Biden's administration? I know that the Republicans are demanding a virtually complete halt to military support for Ukraine. As far as the current administration is concerned, any of us have heard opinions about the current CIA manager William Burns, who seems to realize Russia better than Victoria Nuland and any another people from the Biden administration. Is that true?

Johnson: I utilized to think I did, but Burns said any truly stupid things lately. He was almost as militant as Victoria Nuland and Antony Blinken. I think the United States is sending symbolic gestures, specified as "we will hand over M1 Abrams tanks in September". In September it will be besides late. Generally, the United States has late sent scrap metallic to Ukraine. All kinds of their weapons proved to be a failure.

Patriot? Himars? Good for killing civilians, useless for destroying military positions. No 1 got over how Russia started building defensive lines in the south of Ukraine, somewhere under Cherson in September last year. They built 3 defensive lines. During this process, Ukraine was not erstwhile able to launch an attack to destruct these positions or attack the people who build them. After all, these things did not build themselves. We had to go in there with construction equipment, put up anti-tank dams (dragon teeth), dig trenches and everything else. At no time did Ukraine have any air force or long-distance firing capability to prevent the construction of these structures. Now they don't have much talent, it's worse. We are witnessing a spiral of the death of the Ukrainian army, scrupulously sustained by the United States.

As long as Europe continues to let itself to be used, especially Poland, as long as Poland allows itself to be made a fool of, and that is what it does... If there is simply a clash between Poland and Russia, there is no way the United States will send their soldiers to their deaths. If Poland is targeted, the United States will withdraw.

Piskorski: Thank you. It's beautiful pessimistic, but I think it's realistic, given the past and experience we have. I'd like to address Mr. Fritz. We are now discussing escalation, so my question is: should we truly be afraid of the 100 Wagner Group members who are in Belarus. What do you think?

Fritz: let me to make a brief comment on the issues we discussed here earlier. Dear guests from abroad: Poland has a truly long border with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. We have millions of Ukrainian guests who live in Poland, with unregistered weapons. So casus belli is simply a very easy thing to prepare. As a provocation, an detonation in front of a Russian embassy or something. It can be a casus belli organized in a very simple way, much easier than Wagner's group attack from Belarus. Of course, that's my individual opinion. On the another hand, back to the discussion about American soldiers who are in the Polish territory, in south-eastern Poland... US troops have strategical weapons, which, I believe, cannot be utilized in Ukraine, but aimed at another strategical goal, which could be Iran. This is of course another story, it can be developed in further discussions. I just wanted to point that out at this point in the discussion.

Hand: I firmly believe that we can agree that the thing that brought us together present – and not only today, due to the fact that in our regular work besides – is our opposition to hegemonism, to Nazism, to the expanding threat of war. All these phenomena, which are unfortunately perfectly embodyed by the present flags from the Kiev regime. Of course, the another side of the medal is Anglo-Saxon imperialism and militarism. Well, we are besides full aware that at this stage, the war in Ukraine can spread very easy to another parts of Europe. Not only Europe, but China, Iran and another parts of the world. To any place on the imperialist's radar. Something we can agree with even more – it is not just a atomic threat we are facing. These are besides elements of the economical crisis, which can be even more destructive than the direct replacement war. We know that this is simply a kind of smokescreen for a deeper transformation of the present global liberal capitalism. This is the next step after the covid crisis, after the alleged energy transition and another political decisions taken outside of us, only to force people to live as the globalists would like. I think Mr. Williamson and Mrs. Sosoaca clearly pointed to the aspect of these costs.

All these decisions, all these political movements point straight to the common interest of the arms manufacture union and the financial strategy of neoliberal decision-makers. We can all agree on that. This is besides something optimistic that we can take out of our discussion. We request an global network, a peace network. The discussion of this network, the network for peace is an absolutely urgent and most crucial challenge we face. I think that specified debates are tiny steps towards peace and that it is optimistic, even in specified tragic times in which we live.

Biographical notes:

Diana Iovanovici Sosoaca – Senator, president of Romanian SOS organization Romania.

Grzegorz Braun – associate of Parliament, president of the Confederation of the Polish Crown

George Galloway – erstwhile associate of the home of Commons, leader of the British anti-war movement.

Christopher Williamson – erstwhile associate of the home of Commons, associate of the shadow cabinet of Jeremy Corbyn of the Labour Party.

Colonel Douglas Macgregor – American military expert, erstwhile administrative advisor to president Donald Trump and the United States Department of Defense.

Larry C. Johnson – an officer and erstwhile analyst of the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

Roman Fritz – Vice-President of the Confederation of the Polish Crown.

photo of iziestia.ru

Think Poland, No. 33-34 (13-20.08.2023)