Did Trump open Pandora's box?

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Source: Evan Vucci, @realDonaldTrump/Truth Social

Did Trump open Pandora's box?

By Tyler Durden

Written by John Rosenburger, elder student at Eisenhower Media Network

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Now the boundaries of the American military power are full revealed.

After 2 and a half months of American-Israeli war against a nation that did not pose a threat to the vital interests of the United States, a war justified by the pyramid of lies, respective things became completely clear. President Trump has not set clear and realistic political goals which we, as Israel's proxy in the next war we will choose, should achieve. ‘Realistic’ here means objectives that are realistically achievable by military means available to a given nation.

In His Classical Work Strategy British theorist B.H. Liddell Hart stressed that The primary work of the political leader is to guarantee that war targets are embedded in a military reality. As he warned himself, political goals cannot require what is militaryly impossible.

But this is the mistake president Trump made.

Source: Wikimedia Commons and Amazon

Without clearly defined political objectives, it is impossible to organise the Central Command of the USA (CENTCOM), which is liable for military operations in Western Asia and seemingly oscillates between 1 ineffective maneuver and the another without a uniform operational concept.

Repeated bombing of military targets in a country the size of Western Europe, with over 90 million inhabitants, is not a strategy; this is tactics not related to any visible operational or strategical objective.

Based almost exclusively on air force – fully aware that the American public will not accept another prolonged land war in the mediate East and especially not in Israel's interest – Trump's administration has mastered a strategy that has no historical precedent for success. No government as powerful as Iranian has always been overthrown solely by air force and there is no reason to believe that this conflict will be the first.

Despite repeated assurances of triumph in the war, president Trump did not supply a unchangeable or coherent definition of "winner". Is it about the regime's change and the interior collapse of the Iranian government? Or the unconditional surrender of Iranian armed forces? How about taking over atomic materials, which was previously declared destroyed? To choose. The deficiency of a clear, coherent political nonsubjective makes military commanders hard to find what they are actually going to achieve.

History shows that wars conducted without clearly defined political objectives and effective military strategy tend to turn into wars to demolition – conflicts in which the side of the conflict gains greater resilience and resilience. We witness how this historical truism is revealed in front of our eyes. However, we do not see that Iran is conducting a fundamentally different war, a war based on the endurance of the nation, and that this determination has shaped the nature and course of the conflict.

It is besides clear that this war was based on many incorrect assumptions. Trump's administration assumed that the assassination of large Ayatollah Chamenei would lead to the collapse of the IGRC and the safety apparatus of the country, and the Iranian people would fall on the streets to forcefully overthrow the government. How they were expected to do that to the defenseless is against all logic. Of course, this coup did not happen. It had the other effect. Government and nation have never been as united as they are today.

Photo source: Hamshahri Photo/Wikimedia Commons

Trump's administration has assumed that the powerful air force they intend to deploy will rapidly paralyze Iranian retaliatory capabilities. She didn't do it. . She assumed that Iranian forces would not attack US bases and embassies in the region. But she did. that Iran will not be able to hide and precisely deploy thousands of ballistic missiles and drones for days and weeks. However, she assumed that This is another blatant defeat of both American and Israeli intelligence, as the Iranians bomb Israeli cities, U.S. bases and Gulf States night after night.

Trump's administration assumed Iran would not be able to close the Strait of Ormuz if the US military destroyed the Iranian submarine fleet. She ignored the fact that Iran has respective another means to prevent shipping through the Strait – various mines, tiny submarines designed to operate in shallow waters, swarms of armed motorboats, various types of assault drones, and arsenal of ballistic and hypersonic missiles.

Equally disturbing is the fact that the administration did not consider that Lloyds of London and another insurance companies would not cover the losses of tankers and cargo ships attempting to cross the strait. Iran will guarantee the closure of the Strait, utilizing an arsenal of asymmetric weapons specifically developed for this purpose, giving it a crucial advantage in future negotiations.

Source: MassLive, AP, CalMatters

Result? Chain reactions with catastrophic effects. The U.S. and Israel's war against Iran triggered a global economical crisis that paralyzed the production and transport of oil, liquefied natural gas, urea, helium and aluminum from the Gulf States. The war further increased US public debt, which is now nearly $39 trillion and is steadily increasing. Trump's administration increased our public debt by $1 trillion over the first 5 months of this year and borrowed another 343 billion dollars just last month. Now the Department of defence is asking legislature for an additional $200 billion to cover the unexpected costs of this self-imposed war. For the first time in the past of our country, the debt-to-GDP ratio is 122 percent and there is no decline. The consequences for our economy in the coming months and years may be disastrous if this trend continues without control.

This self-inherited war has practically exhausted supplies of offensive and defensive US troops that cannot be replenished over the years. It increased the strategical vulnerability of our country and weakened the Pentagon's ability to counter another threats worldwide. The borders of the American military power are now full visible. Russia and China wipe their hands with joy.

Nine U.S. military bases in the Gulf States have been destroyed or abandoned. It is improbable that the Gulf States would always take back the American Armed Forces, as the Trump administration has shown that the United States cannot and will not defend its arabian allies in the Persian Gulf. This administration fundamentally destroyed the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) coalition and thus alienated most of its NATO allies.

Russia benefits from an unexpected increase in oil and gas sales and revenues, becoming the main supplier of oil to China, India, Europe, Japan, South Korea and another countries that previously relied on oil from the Persian Gulf. Airlines worldwide ration aviation fuel and limit the number of flights. Gas and diesel prices are rising rapidly at gas stations in the United States, exacerbating inflation and so on the already strained budgets of Americans who are struggling to finance food, housing, transport and wellness insurance.

Source: US State Department/Wikimedia Commons

Since the United States attacked Iran twice without informing last year during major negotiations, Iran has no reason to always trust us or negociate to end this conflict. We are witnessing the unintended consequences of the war which he has caused himself, badly planned and guided solely by pride. In just 2 months, Iran has taken up an operational and strategical initiative and will decide the result of this war. Looks like the Trump administration opened a can of Pandora.

Eventually, the government failed to establish a way to victory, culminating in the restoration of lasting peace in the mediate East.

Professor Donald Stoker summarizes this necessity in his in-depth book “Why America Loses War”, noting: “...when political leadership has fulfilled its task, its definition of triumph [political purpose] contains a clear imagination of what the post-war situation should look like. Ultimately, as Cicero says, war is about restoring peace; if it is not the goal, war is not fair.” Union General William Tecumseh Sherman stressed: “The legitimate nonsubjective of war is to improve peace. War is about fighting for the peace we want.”

Everything was fine.

Without an effective political and military strategy that will reconstruct a unchangeable and lasting peace between the peoples of the region, there is simply a hazard that this war will become another meaningless act of force on the part of the United States; a war that will end in defeat, meaningless demolition and economical depression that will take years to overcome.

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