Senate – it is much little talked about than the Sejm, due to the fact that its function is not crucial in lawmaking (the Sejm may reject the Senate's amendments by an absolute majority), but it is crucial in respective strategical issues. The Higher Chamber has key personnel and control competences. The Senate, among others:
- He co-decisions on the election of the Ombudsman (RPO) – without the consent of the Sejm legislature he cannot appoint a Ombudsman.
- It elects 2 members of the National Judicial Council (NRA) and 2 members of the Monetary Policy Council (NRP) influencing interest rates in the NBP.
- He appoints 1 associate of the National Broadcasting Council (KRRiT).
- He elects 3 judges of the Court of State.
- He agrees to the appointment of the president of the ultimate Chamber of Control (NIK), the president of IPN and the president of the Office for individual Data Protection.
- It has exclusive competence to care for Polonia and Poles abroad.
- Approves the decree of a national referendum by the President.
Recently, Grzegorz Braun proposed to establish an alliance in the legislature elections calling this an unopposed proposal. What's this all about?
1. JOW: explanation of Authority vs. organization Violence
Unlike the elections to the Sejm, where we have large districts where 7 to 20 MPs from the organization list are elected, the Single-Mandate Electoral Districts (JOW) in the legislature should in rule advance prominent individuals and local authorities. In practice, however, voters propose organization logos. It was brutally shown in 2023: Law and Justice, despite gaining the highest support (34.81%), introduced only 34 senators to the Senate. At the same time, the Civic Coalition, with lower support (30.70%), won as many as 41 tickets. This was only possible thanks to the "Senacki Pact" – if government parties had issued separate candidates, anti-PiS votes would have crashed, giving the anti-government side a stand-alone majority.
2. Simulation I: PiS alone (Electoral data 2025)
Taking as a basis the consequence of Karol Nawrocki's presidential election 2025 (c. 29.5%) and assuming that the Law and Justice organization competes for the legislature as a separate committee against the united "Government legislature Pact", data are ruthless. Breaking votes on the anti-government side makes the PiS lose almost all shuttle districts.
- Law and Justice:21 mandates
- Government legislature Pact (KO/TD/Levice):79 mandates
3. Simulation II: Presidential Pact (PiS + Mentzen + Braun)
The script changes diametrically erstwhile utilizing the model Presidential Pact, which is 1 common anti-government list. Concluding the voices of Karol Nawrocki, Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun of 2025, the anti-government side regains control of key state nominations.
- Presidential Pact:56 mandates
- Government legislature Pact:44 mandates
This is the only option in which the sum of anti-government votes is not wasted by the JOW system.
4. Simulation III: Outflow script (20% of PiS goes to Braun)
Current political dynamics and polls indicate that the PiS is losing support and that it is gaining by Grzegorz Braun. In this simulation we presume that 20% PiS electorate (i.e. all 5th voter PiS)proceeds to the Braun Committee, and these parties take part separately (no anti-government agreement).
- PiS alone (after losing 20% of the vote):9 mandates
- Confederation Committees (Mentzen/Braun):0 mandates (Despite advanced percent support, in no territory they pierce the ceiling 40%, which in JOW means no mandate).
- Government legislature Pact:91 mandates
In this variant, the anti-government site is virtually swept off the map of the Senate. The PiS is pushed to a marginal function with 9 Senators, and the Confederacy's voices – although historically advanced – work straight to get the constitutional majority by candidates of the Civic Coalition and Left.
Summary: The statistic are inexorable, although this is only a simplified scheme, due to the fact that in practice there will besides be independent candidates in the elections who can disturb the statistics. However, there is no uncertainty without formalisation Presidential Pact or Anti-Government Block (perhaps enlarged by the Together organization of Adrian Zandberg), the anti-government organization in Poland is sentenced to complete elimination from the legislature and surrendering control of institutions specified as NBP, TK or RPO. With current flows of electorate to Braun, unity under 1 name is no longer a substance of choice for the Law and Justice, but of biological endurance in parliament.
Of course, building specified an arrangement of forces is very hard and requires compromises, so each associate takes any risks that can negatively affect the votes to the Sejm. However, the agreement premium is very large, as the 2023 elections showed, erstwhile thanks to the legislature Pact, the Civic Coalition gained more Senators than the Law and Justice, despite little electoral support, and additionally gained coalitions – the 3rd Way and Left, which would have no chance of having any mandate without entering the legislature Pact.
Similarly, with an anti-government alliance, the PiS could gain even twice as many senators as alone, and the Crown and Confederacy after a twelve senators that they wouldn't have going alone. How should divisions be divided? In at least half of these "certain" 55 districts to be won by the anti-government block, the votes of the Crown and the Confederation are needed. Thus, for example, it can be arranged that the PiS in 25 districts exposes its candidate, and the remaining 30 are divided into Crowns and Confederations. There is besides a question of how to fill districts where the government coalition has a certain victory, and the anti-government candidate will gotta number for failure, but can advance in the campaign. These candidates could be cast by the president – as independent, citizen candidates. building their capital for the future.
In this situation – where for many voters on the ballot the political committee is more crucial than the candidate's name, the leadership game in the legislature comes down to squad play. And so it will be, as long as the political committee is written out on the ballot card – although it cannot be excluded that in any areas there are authorities that can top political agreements – specified as Mrs. Lidia Staroń, who twice gained a legislature seat as a candidate from her own election committee. In 2015, she gained 43% of the vote, defeating candidates from the Civic Platform (33%) and Law and Justice (23%).
In summary, Grzegorz Braun's proposal aims to remove the current government squad from power in the legislature and to decision from the “party” to pragmatic politics and real impact on Poland's destiny by introducing its representatives to the legislature in place of the current Tusk team's denominations.
Below is simply a video in the form of a podcast on youtube discussing this entry
