Chapter V. Stay home or evacuate?
The fundamental issue you gotta settle by making preparations in case of W. is to answer the question: in the event of the outbreak of war – stay in the place of residence or evacuate to pre-established positions? Contrary to appearances, this is simply a very complex question and many further preparations depend on the answer. Based on my own experience, I can tell you – somewhat prejudging the facts – that you gotta prepare for both variants. chaotic animals surviving in burrows (leaves, badgers) always have at least a fewer (sometimes a dozen) to enter their hideouts. Just in case. erstwhile preparing for war, prepare for both dislocation and stay put. The more you get out, the more likely 1 of them will prove to be usable.
The first and most logical reaction (at least by appearance) in the event of the outbreak of war seems to be to escape as far as possible. Where there are no threats of armed action, bombings, rocket attacks – word – evacuation to a safe place where war is improbable to happen. But erstwhile you look closely at this option, it turns out that it does not necessarily should be the optimal option.
Witold Gombrowicz, a well-known Polish author and playwright, boarded the “Chrobry” transatlantic going to Argentina on 29 July 1939. Gombrowicz, from a wealthy landowner family, was to spend 2 weeks in South America. He stayed there for the next 24 years and never returned to Poland. He spent his first years in Argentina Gombrowicz in poverty, surviving with the aid of his friends, frequently not adding and surviving in ruders, in which even homeless people would live today. However, he avoided the horrors of war in Poland. And you? Are you ready for that? Leave the home and never go back to him?
You must answer these questions yourself. Each of us is different, each has different priorities, different life situations, different possibilities. Not all of us gotta flee the war to the another side of the world. possibly the another end of Poland will be adequate to stay somewhere in Europe? There are quite a few these options and quite a few uncertainty about them. First of all, you gotta answer the question, how long are you ready to quit your life – for a fewer days, a week, a year, forever? This is an existential question. And it's worth going deeper than that. And 1 more thing – whatever plans you make in times of peace, their implementation at the time of the war can be hard or impossible. For example, on the day of the war I left Kiev with my household for a fewer days. That was the plan. As a result, I spent over a period under occupation.
Your life, your plans. My occupation is to help. erstwhile planning an evacuation in case of war, you must consider the following:
1. Where do you want to evacuate?
2. Means of transport
3. Estimated time of dislocation
4. Options for exiting the exile situation
Ad 1. Where to evacuate?
As an answer to this question there are 2 options: evacuation in the country, evacuation abroad.
As far as evacuation is afraid in the country, it is not a peculiar secret that the Polish defence doctrine includes building major defensive lines behind Vistula. The PiS claimed that it was their idea, but – without going into politics – it is the only logical thought if the Republic of Poland does not want to let its Armed Forces to orbit and break the components of its Armed Forces, utilizing an unacceptable doctrine “no step back”, in which we issue Russia a conflict at borders. most likely in this scenario, after 2 days of struggle, combat capability will be maintained mainly by guerrillas who will not participate in this slaughter.
The Republic has no operational depth. For purely geographical reasons, we deficiency hundreds of kilometres of land from the borders where manoeuvring could be waged and which could become “the theatre of action”. In the event of an attack by the Russian Federation and Belarus, the theatre of action from the first respective hours will become the space from the east border of Poland to the Vistula line. Of course, it is impossible to foretell precisely what is going to happen there, but 1 thing is to foretell – landings and the avant-garde of the Russian troops will be met in this space practically everywhere within 24 hours of the invasion.
In view of the above, in order to escape the gathering with the aggressor's troops, to be in an environment or under occupation, we should evacuate behind the Vistula line. Given the fact that modern artillery without problems hurts targets over a distance of about 25 kilometres, it would be worth including this distance in a safe buffer zone. In a word – if you want to avoid war by evacuating in the country, choose places located at least 50 km west of the Vistula River.
When planning a place for temporary or permanent dislocation in Poland, think besides about avoiding the neighbourhood of specified facilities as military barracks, industrial plants, energy infrastructure elements, delicate road and railway nodes, large cities. Why avoid large cities? due to the fact that in them is everything that was mentioned before them: barracks, energy infrastructure, road and rail nodes. As such, rockets will attract. Of course, the anti-aircraft defence strategy consists of creating “safety bubbles” around large cities, due to the fact that they attract rocket attacks and around them rather easy interrupt these attacks (no country—even Israel with its Iron Dome—has 100% of its territory covered with anti-aircraft defence measures). However, looking at the statistics, it will be much safer in an honest field, even if rockets fly over it than in a densely populated city, which is the natural mark of rocket attacks, of which statistically, about 3% ends with a mark hit or close to it. You don't shoot in an honest field. And given that anti-aircraft defence measures cover mainly the areas of the cities and their immediate vicinity, neither will a shot down rocket hit a sufficiently remote, honest field.
In the event of evacuation abroad, the only limitation is actually the budget you have at your disposal. If you have a household abroad, to which you can go and stay with it “for an indefinite time”, it makes it much easier. But if you keep up with your own resources, it can be problematic. delight note that the price of accommodation in the tourist base of Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia (and most likely another countries) will increase importantly after the aggression against Poland and the expected fewer million-dollar wave of refugees. It is simply a natural business phenomenon – there is simply a advanced demand, the price of the service is increasing. Of course, you can flee abroad and effort to usage government humanitarian aid programs as a exile from a war-torn country. However, I am afraid that you will not be pleased with the conditions that the refugees will propose, for example, to our western neighbours, Germany. Consider that Germany has a well-organised strategy of places for the deployment of refugees, but the centres under this strategy are planned for third-world residents. So don't anticipate luxury there. And keep in head that any government agencies will be highly burdened by the wave of migrants, so relying on humanitarian programs is alternatively a dissipation than a comfortable or even bearable variant.
Ad. 2. Means of transport
When planning an evacuation, it's good to have a private car. This gives a minimum of independency and comfort both on the way and at the destination. I don't think I gotta add that, in a period of direct global tension, it is essential to take care of the method state of the vehicle. There's nothing worse than getting packed up in your own car and standing up due to a breakdown while travelling. The phenomenon of the breakdown of transport means for evacuation was very common in the first days of the war in Ukraine. Road aids were practically nothing more than the taking of unfortunate refugees whose vehicles at the time of the exodus refused further service.
Consider the fuel shortages. It's just that everyone's going to throw themselves at gas stations where there's going to be sales regulation, or we're going to run out of petrol or diesel. And it won't be the consequence of a war, and it won't be that everyone wants to fill up their vehicles in 1 minute. Of course, the war will increase the problem. We should not exclude deliberate attacks on fuel retention – causing communication chaos will definitely suit the aggressor. Nothing slows down military logistics like roads filled with civilian cars that ran out of fuel.
Forget the planes (also private, if you have one). The first thing that follows the attack on the country is to close the airspace for civilian aviation. More simply, if someone's plane can take off before the first shots are fired, they have a chance of leaving the country on board. If someone's plane is only preparing to take off (even if passengers are already on board), this plane does not necessarily fly. At the Ukrainian airport Borispil close Kiev, which became 1 of the first targets of rocket attacks, people were blown out of the aircraft straight on the airport plate and left the airport in the government “retreat who can!”. frequently without means of transfer from the airport or even adequate clothing to scope Kiev. For he who went to warm countries did not bring with him warm clothing for a journey to Kiev, which took place in February. The communicative is silent about those who managed to fly on vacation to Egypt hours before the Russian invasion began. By the way, their fates must be interesting. He's certain the planes never returned to the country.
Public transport is primarily the railway. Bus carriers will become victims of the situation very rapidly – low bandwidth, no timetables, giant delays, no information about where buses are located. Even if specified information is kept up to date, it will not be possible to foretell where and erstwhile these buses will arrive.
The railroad will experience a actual siege. Above all, railways are strategically crucial means of transport for armed forces. The railway is besides an crucial freight artery, given that civilian air transport will not work from the first hours of the war. Finally, the railroad will gotta face a powerful wave of refugees. I'll say this: if you absolutely don't gotta usage the railroad, don't plan to decision with it. There will be Dantej scenes at the stations. Crowds will be bigger than erstwhile the commune started. People will travel standing, the depots will stand for hours in an honest field, passing precedence transports, travellers will motion for hours, if not days at the stations—say: truly nothing you would like to participate in if there was any another choice. But it must besides be said that the railway will most likely play the most crucial function in the transport of the first hours after the war.
Passenger shipping will most likely be paralyzed from the earliest hours of the war. It is possible to block ports or fire from the sea from the Russian Baltic fleet. Only passenger craft that can leave ports before the aggression begins will stay on the move. These ships, which will be found in ports (on any side of the Baltic), will most likely be detained in them until the situation in maritime transport is clear. And this time is not hours, and days, if not weeks.
Ad 3. Estimated Dislocation Time
Of course you're the 1 who's planning on leaving your place of residence in peace. In times of war, all your plans don't substance much. Therefore, if your place of residence is on the east line of the Vistula River, leaving it to avoid a direct encounter with the aggressor’s troops, you must consider that you will never return to it again.
In writing that you must consider that you will not return to your home, I do not mean that you will never return to your home again. Unfortunately, the situation may make so that you will not return to your home in the foreseeable future. Given that, you gotta leave the home as if you're not coming back for a long time. At least prepare for a month's absence. This preparation will let you to spend both a month, 2 months and definitely more time away.
When preparing to evacuate for the indicated time indefinite, however, you must take into account the fact that this will not be a monthly vacation trip. You can't take everything you need. On the contrary, erstwhile you evacuate before the war, you gotta take only the most essential things. The little baggage, the better. Consider that in an utmost case (e.g. car failure) you can only take with you what you can carry. erstwhile you pack up, you must have the most crucial thing in 1 part of luggage. In addition, you can pack yourself a suitcase, but I stand in the position that in fact a few-pound backpack per individual is adequate to pack for both 2 days and six months. That's how weird I am.
Evacuating from the border region or any another place where there is simply a danger of gathering in the aggressor's troops, you must look the worst. So you gotta prepare to leave the home in a completely different way than usual. Under no circumstances can you be “optically attractive”. This means clothes, makeup, shape, external signs of wealth. In order to experience an encounter with enemy soldiers without harming yourself, you must look despicable, repulsive, discouraging, due to the fact that – it does not hurt to impress a individual with any contagious infirmity – the ulcer visible on the face or hands will surely discourage you from coming into closer contact with you by far everyone you encounter in your path. And it's not a joke. Women leaving occupied Ukraine made large efforts to look as attractive as possible.
I'm not going to make this subject due to the fact that I don't know much about makeup. However, I have seen its effects in the pictures – with the aid of a appropriate “grim” you can truly make an attractive female a scarecrow. If you fishy you might meet invaders on your way, that's what you gotta look like. Like the last kitten. And remember, the first thing you request to know is simply a manicure. It won't aid the best makeup camouflage if you have flawless nails. Before leaving home, remove the manicure and cut it off. The worse, the better. Burying your fingers in the ground of pot flowers will not be an exaggeration.
And 1 more crucial thing. Whether you are leaving your home on the east wall or in the Świnoujście, make certain that individual you know (or preferably from your neighbors) who are staying there has keys to your flat or home. It's the same regulation as going on vacation. individual has to take care of your home while you're not in it. They're not gonna hit everything. Not everything will burn. But a hose can break anywhere that leads to a toilet flush. And this can be as large a disaster as it was struck by a shock wave from a close window explosion. And flowers. If you have flowers, individual has to water them. You take pets with you (maybe but fish). Isn't that obvious?
Whatever time you're going to, take cash with you. How much? – adequate to make you feel comfortable with this amount – not adequate to keep reasoning about how much and where you hide your money and not adequate to run out of money after your first lunch at a gas station paid for in cash. Take the pessimistic presumption that terminals, proximity payments, cards and all that electronic strategy you're utilized to all day.
Another life hack he can, though he doesn't have to, will come in handy. Take the dollars with you. It's truly the most universal language in the world. Benjamin Franklin and his fellow presidents depicted on American banknotes have the power to convince akin to Samuel Colt and his invention, or revolver. I'll even say that dollars can do far more things than Colt. And – this is besides crucial – a fewer 100 dollar bills can be hidden virtually everywhere. And a couple hundred-dollar bills are a fewer 1000 zlotys.
Important thing – don't just take $100 bills. Take smaller denominations. Don't anticipate them to spend the remainder of your... And by taking out these goldfish if necessary, do it so you don't get them all at once. utilizing this strategical reserve will never be a buying situation in an RTV store. Just keep them hidden in different places.
When you talk about money in cash, you besides request to mention it so that you don't accidentally think about taking all your life savings with you. It can't be done unnoticed, no substance how secretive you're going to be doing this operation. The watchful eyes and ears of the neighbors will know this. Ba! This cognition may come to the ears encountered in the way of enemy soldiers. Don't ask me how? All I'll tell you is that a businessman was carrying a large amount of cash in his car, in addition to his family, erstwhile he evacuated from the danger of occupying Donbas. And only his car was fired on the block. They all died. unusual coincidence, isn't it?
Ad 4. Options for exiting the exile situation
By choosing to escape the war from your home, the last thing you think about is how do you get home? And about a week later, as a refugee, the main thought that goes on in your head is: how do you come home? The war after a week is no longer so terrible, the situation – although it sounds incredible – stabilizes, man makes fresh habits. And he's starting to miss his flat or house, any stability. due to the fact that know 1 thing – refugees may and will warrant physical safety, but with a sense of stableness and intellectual comfort there is not much in common.
Therefore, at the same time as planning in the details of your evacuation, it is besides worth planning and variants of going home. Of course, if your home is under occupation, specified plans should be made very carefully. Crossing the front lines is usually at advanced risk. Where there are active combat activities, it is physically impossible. But erstwhile your small homeland is not an arena of clashes, why not go back to it? Of course, if you ran off to the United States due to the fact that it was your eternal dream, and the war just pushed you to carry it out, it doesn't make much sense to come back after a week or two. This first pain and longing emigrant, which appears in the first weeks of life on emigration a mine. At least in most cases. Although you're not the sum of statistical cases, and it may be different.
However, in the case of evacuations within Poland, if military actions do not stand in the way of this, 1 may consider returning to a tiny homeland after mastering the first shock associated with the outbreak of war. Firstly, in many places of our country, the danger of war will be very similar. Secondly, everything is fine, but home is fine. Thirdly, I have heard from the Ukrainians that nevertheless they do not want to go to the army to die somewhere in the mud on Donbasa, if the enemy approaches their house, they will fight with bare fists and bite with teeth.
The strength of the country is the people attached to their tiny homelands. That's the strength that can't be tamed. And believe me – all enemy will feel it, even erstwhile they won't fly towards it partisan bullets. And if we all run, then why do we even request Poland? What was there to live for, work, make plans for generations? I know it sounds very high-pitched, but for your own intellectual well-being, it is worth having a goal greater than yourself and private complacency. For we are not eternal, but the memory of us can give us a kind of eternal life. Finally, 1 very crucial thing: man becomes truly free erstwhile he stops moving from his own fears and comes out to meet them. Even if those fears hold a buck in their hand.
So far, we've devoted quite a few space to the evacuation, and what if you decide to stay home? Well, all the problems of moving, whether inside or outside the country, are definitely gone. But let us be clear: there comes a time erstwhile we should definitely evacuate. erstwhile there's a street shooting going on, and fights are going on for all building, it's definitely besides late to decide to run away. It remains to sit in the basement and pray that KAB(1) does not hit our house. If our home has a basement. Before that happens, however, the authorities will repeatedly urge evacuation, and it is possible that they may even be forced to order it. So you will know erstwhile you will gotta leave the home where you live.
Until that minute comes, however, you can organize your life in war and war conditions in your home. I'll tell you in secret, it's even easier than choosing a stray refugee. In the first hours and days of war there will most likely not be mass acts of terror, war crimes, and the demolition caused by military action will not be paralysing – at least nationally. So it will be possible to get in your home and put aside decisions about a possible escape for a fewer days to establish a better image of the situation. Of course, after a fewer days, you may not be able to decision from where you live. Nevertheless, it is most likely a better destiny than being stuck in a fewer days at any station (which may besides be the mark of an attack) or in an equally uncomfortable, different place. Well, that's my individual opinion. I take into account that there are people who faint from the sound of gunshots, and a compression on an overflowing station as erstwhile gives them a ghost. You know better than anyone you belong to.
Staying in your home, you request to prepare for definitely fresh surviving conditions. Empty shops, power outages, deficiency of fuel in stations, restrictions on freedom of movement, rocket and drone attacks, closed for an indefinite period of time workplaces – that's all you'll gotta face. Preparations for this fresh reality can be about divided into long-term and ad hoc ones. The second will be done immediately before the outbreak of the war. You should start implementing these long-term ones immediately. It's not just war preparations. These are actions that will make your life easier and your regular activities more effective. A small consequence, and you're gonna go on a full fresh level of self-organization. During the war, it will give you an first advantage over a statistical civilian. It's a tiny reason to be fortunate in the critical moments Napoleon asked his officers about. In peacetime, these fresh routines you should train in and around you will free you quite a few time, integrate your family, and give you a sense of control over the situation many times.
More about these preparations – both immediate and long-term – I will tell in the second part of this guide. So far, if you choose to stay home, you go shopping. You gotta buy: with 10 kg of flour, 4 liters of sunflower oil, with 40 packages of dry yeast of 15 grams, a pair of liters of drinking water, matches, lighters, cigarettes (a pair of packages, even if you don't smoke), candles (the thicker, the better), a small 1.5 V batteries (such as very tiny ones – AAA and a small larger ones – AA). besides take quite a few canned meat - at least 5 head per family. And I don't want to hear any stories who don't eat. “Tourist Conservatory” or “Szczeciński Papaper” are truly large sources of calories that will appreciate any vegan if it gets hungry.
Buy besides any simple 2 flashlights (small – there is nothing more awkward and useless than a flashlight with 1 hand and weighing out a kilo – unless it has a solid metallic casing and can be utilized to make a double white weapon a la buzdigan if necessary). Actually, you should besides buy toilet paper. But I hope you've got adequate at home. due to the fact that toilet paper in the event of disasters specified as war, pandemic or Martian attack always disappears first from store shelves. So you might have a problem getting it.
You go buying with the list mentioned above, and I will tell you what is going on with our heroes – Ani and Tomek. Tom and his household decided to go to Germany. Anna took the advice a Russian soldier gave her and returned home, deciding to wait for what would happen. 1 crucial note: you have a plan. Do not succumb to the influence of others or the panics observed in various places.
Footnotes:
(1) KAB (Russian: Корректируемая авиационная) is an aerial bomb with a revised flight. Its weight is 500 kg and sometimes more. Its direct impact turns into ruin an average building from a large plate regardless of whether it has 4 or 10 floors.
