2024 is simply a “super-choice” year for Croatia. Only within the next 9 months will Croats vote in the parliamentary, European and presidential elections. The first of these duels will take place on 17 April, erstwhile Prime Minister Andrej Plenković and his centre-right Croatian National Community (HDZ), who has been co-hosting the country for 8 years, will stay in power. The main competition for this group is the centre-left coalition headed by the Social Democratic organization of Croatia (SDP), whose run has decided to lead president Zoran Milanović, which has met with large public surprise and opposition from the Constitutional Court. At the stake of these elections is the ability to recapture a state owned by HDZ, which is increasingly accused of corruption and actions weakening the democratic institutions of Croatia. While it is inactive very likely that the centreright will win again, it may be hard to reconstruct a unchangeable government arrangement after the election.
Escape to Early Elections From Anti-government Protests
Of the 3 national votes scheduled for this year, the elections to the single-camera parliament – Sabor – will undoubtedly be the most crucial ones. Croatia is simply a state with a parliamentary-office strategy in which the president does not have extended prerogatives during peacetime, mainly performing typical functions.
The governing coalition has decided mildly Accelerate the date of parliamentary elections due to, it seems, the proliferation of anti-government protests and concerns about their impact on the polls. The streets of Zagreb and another Croatian cities have been receiving more and more professional groups since the beginning of this year: whether teachers, doctors, judges demanding increases, or journalists protesting changes limiting freedom to prosecute their profession.
Next to president Zoran Milanović, the leading figure in Croatian politics is Andrej Plenković, who has been the head of the government for 2 years. Since the last parliamentary election in 2020, the centre-right block of Plenkovic has been co-hosted in a coalition with the Independent Democratic Serbian Party, representing the interests of the Serbian minority, and with the support of individual MPs who together supply the government with a minimum majority in Sabora (76 out of 151 mandates). During the Plenkovicia period, Croatia completed the process of Euro-Inclusion, ascending 1 January 2023 to the euro and Schengen area. This became possible thanks to the strong support of the main political forces and the stubbornness of the president of the HNB central bank Boris Vujčic. It is worth noting that the traditionally close relations between HDZ politicians and German political elites played an crucial function in the process of bringing Croatia closer to the core of the European Union, especially during the reign of Angela Merkel and CDU/CSU, with which HDZ sits together in the European People's Party. In his last term, the Plenkovic Government finished the construction of the long-awaited Pelješac bridge linking Dubrovnik to the remainder of the country, and launched LNG terminal on the island of Krk, expanding the energy safety of Croatia by diversifying gas supply. In the ongoing election campaign, Plenković seeks to show as the leader of a government camp, which effectively leads the country through successive crises, starting from the 2020 earthquake, through a pandemic to an inflation shock exacerbated by Russia's aggression into Ukraine.
Five political blocks in the fresh parliament
The leading political parties and election coalitions to participate in the April 17 elections are:
- Croatian Democratic Community – HDZ (last polls: 29-34%) is simply a formally centre-right and pro-European group, but it besides has crucial nationalist factions in its structures. HDZ was founded by Franjo Tudjman, considered the father of Croatian independence, and co-organized the country for a vast majority of the time since the declaration of independency in 1991. In this year's elections, HDZ again competes in a coalition with insignificant conservative groups (HSLS, HDS, HNS, HSU). The centre-right camp is headed by HDZ leader Andrej Plenković, who has been directing the work of the Croatian government since 2016.
- Rivers of Justice – Rijeke Pravde [1] (21-22%) is simply a centre-left coalition that is simply a reincarnation of akin alliances from the parliamentary elections in erstwhile years (formerly called Restart, Croatia is growing, Maize). The leading group of this coalition is Social Democratic organization of Croatia (SDP),being the successor to the Yugoslav Communist Union (Croatian). A period before the election to surprise many headed the coalition was president Zoran Milanović, her erstwhile leader and Prime Minister from 2011-2016.
- National Movement – DP (8-10%) is simply a populist, national-conservative organization founded before the erstwhile parliamentary elections by musician Miroslav Škoro. After the organization financial scandal, Ivan Penava, mayor of Vukovaru, took over the party's leadership.
- Bridge – Croatian Sovereigns (8%) is another national-conservative coalition with a Eurosceptic attitude, emphasizing its attachment to Christian values. The bridge briefly co-ordinated Croatia in the first government of Andrej Plenkovic (2016-2017), and the Croatian Sovereigns were a leading political force against Croatia's accession to the euro area, demanding a nationwide referendum on this issue.
- Možemo! – We can! (8%) is simply a group of green and urban activists who advocate the conventional progressive and (eco-)social agenda. It is from his ranks that the popular mayor of Zagreb Tomislav Tomašević comes.
Other electoral groups and coalitions noted in polls, the results clearly below the 5% electoral threshold.
Growing corruption problem and non-liberal HDZ return
Corruption has become an crucial problem for Croatia under its long-standing HDZ governments. global rankings, specified as Corruption Perspectives Index, ranks Croatia among the 5 most corrupt countries in the European Union. According to Transparency International, it is only worse in Greece, Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary. Country regularly Shake Corruption scandals, which translates into a large rotation of ministers in the government of Plenkovic. Since he assumed power in 2016, as many as 30 members of the government have been dismissed. Only 3 ministers from the first government survived to this day in their positions.
A major scandal and fuel for street protests by opposition parties was A fresh appointment as lawyer General Ivan Turudić, a lawyer close to the ruling HDZ, who besides has many ties to persons convicted of corruption. NGOs warning before the progressive erosion of democratic standards, pointing out the advanced hazard of obstruction of investigations against those associated with the camp of power. Opposition SDP She said Even about Plenkovic's entry into the coffin of Croatian justice.
Also worrying are the changes in criminal law relating to alleged signallers, which were adopted in February this year by the government majority despite the large objections writer circles. The crime for which even a long prison word is now threatened has been to uncover to journalists information from police proceedings. Opposition and critical of government commentators are Agreethat this is simply a “law to hide political corruption” to aid HDZ in a hard election year.
The amazing entrance to the game of president Milanovic
Big confusion on the Croatian political scene caused president Milanović's declaration to engage in the ongoing run as the leader of the centre-left Justice River coalition and the candidate for this block as Prime Minister. The Constitutional Court immediately responded to this announcement. statedArticle 96 The Croatian constitution forbids the president to engage in organization politics and apply for a parliamentarian/presidential seat without giving up his function as President. In consequence president Milanović called decision of the Constitutional Court of “the coup d'état” and its judges “gangsters”. In addition, he stated that, notwithstanding this decision, the Court would find a way to become Prime Minister after the centre left the election. In specified a scenario, it is not hard to imagine that Milanovic's engagement in the run against the explicit position of the Constitutional Court could lead to a post-election constitutional crisis, including even requests for annulment of election results.
Although president Milanović is only somewhat more popular than Prime Minister Plenković (32% to 30%), it was his entry into the election game in mid-March that immediately improved the listing of the centre-left coalition with SDP at the head. The party, which during most of its passing word recorded results of 13-16%, gained an average of 7 per cent on the run finish. Over the 5 years Milanović's presidency has become known as a politician who is rather effectively building his popularity on the harsh criticisms Prime Minister Plenkovic as a policy of inept, overly subordinate to Western capitals, not avoiding And it's from aggressive, offensive language. The field of competition between the presidential and government centres has become in the last term, among others, the issue of the support of Zagreb for Croats surviving in neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina and their demands on the revision of Bosnian electoral law, which they consider discriminatory. In order to show greater origin than Prime Minister Plenković, president Milanović threatened block the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO without having previously met the demands of Bosnian Croats. The political position of the president of Croatia evidently does not give him the powers that Prime Minister Plenković tried translate Western partners. The most fresh act of malice towards the Prime Minister was the announcement by president Milanovic of the deadline for parliamentary elections in the mediate of the week, i.e. on Wednesday 17 April, alternatively than as usual on Sunday. The President's maneuver is calculated by obstruction HDZ conventional Croatian transportation to electoral venues from neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina, where 1 of the parties holding power is HDZ BiH, a sister organization of Plenkovicia. In addition, the elections will be held just before the planned delivery French Rafale fighters, against whom Plenković wanted to present himself to voters as a modernizer of the Croatian army.
Insecure post-election scenarios
Considering the possible triumph of the centre-left coalition and/or the creation of the government by Zoran Milanović, a legitimate question arises about Croatia's future course in abroad policy, in peculiar as regards the conflict in Ukraine. While Prime Minister Plenkovic's government consistently emphasises its support for the fighting Ukraine, giving it military support, Milanović has repeatedly become celebrated for his anti-Ukrainian statements. president Critic West for sending arms to Ukraine and He was accusing The Plenkovic government wants to bring Croatia into the war with Russia. In addition, it is widely known Opinion Milanovicia about the fact that there is no place for Ukraine in NATO and that Crimea will never be part of this country again. A balanced impact on the final form of Croatian abroad policy under the possible governments of Milanović may have its organization and left-wing coalitions which, in principle, cannot be considered to favour Moscow. In summary, from the average Social politician who as Prime Minister introduced Croatia into the European Union in 2013, Zoran Milanović became a vulgar populist over the years, who tries to race right-wing parties to nationalism, play anti-Western resentations and mobilize voters frustrated with HDZ governments.
Despite the marked emergence in the popularity of the centreleft after the engagement of president Milanović in the campaign, the base post-election script is inactive another winning word of the current government agreement. Managing a country with comparatively short breaks for over 3 decades, HDZ, as a typical “party of power”, managed to make a number of clientelistic networks and take over a vast majority of public institutions, thus providing itself with permanent and mobilized voters. In the absence of the anticipation to re-create the erstwhile coalition due to the insufficient number of mandates in Sabora, the centre-right HDZ may be forced to search the support of 1 of the 2 letters even more to the right: DP or Most/Croatian Sovereigns. Croatia would so join a increasing group of EU countries (co-) run by the Eurosceptic right. As HDZ will most likely stay the dominant force in the future government agreement, it is not expected that there will be a crucial change of course in Croatia's abroad policy, whether in relation to the European Union or Ukraine.
[1] The name of the coalition refers to the song “Rijeke pravde”, popular inactive in Yugoslavia, now utilized as the slogan of election rallies at which opposition leaders announce The coming “cleansing the government of criminals”.
Photo: pexels.com
