- Donald Trump in an interview with the "New York Post" stated that he spoke to Russian president Vladimir Putin about the end of the war in Ukraine. But inactive neither Washington nor Moscow was given a circumstantial announcement of peace talks
- According to Dr. Witold Sokała, Trump's words can be specified speculation, due to the fact that Americans inactive do not have a definitive plan of action towards Russia. And this, according to the expert, will depend on Washington's attitude towards Beijing.
- Putin besides has reasons to stay silent about the Trump talks. Dr. Sokała points to 2 of his powerful concerns. “In this context — besides in the Kremlin — questions arise as to whether Putin will last specified a revolution,” says the expert
- Specific announcements from the US to Russia can be heard at the Munich conference. “Unfortunately, Trump’s actions present do not indicate his willingness to make specified a large offensive to rebuild the world,” says Dr. Sokała
- More articles like this can be found on the Onetu homepage
If you trust Donald Trump's words, there should be no war in Ukraine. The American president had already announced in the presidential run that erstwhile he won the election, he would end the conflict in 24 hours. Since his swearing in to the highest office in the United States, 4 weeks have passed on Monday, and heavy fighting continues on the Ukrainian front. On Sunday, Russia carried out a massive attack on western Ukraine.
Around the same time, the planet media discussed Donald Trump's alleged conversation with Vladimir Putin. The president of the United States mentioned it in an interview with the fresh York Post. Putin was going to tell him that “he wants people to halt dying in the war in Ukraine”, but there was no circumstantial information in the interview regarding Trump's possible encounter with Putin. The Kremlin did not even want to confirm the reports of the "New York Post" that a telephone conversation between leaders had taken place.
Trump's only holding the charges in the bud. "Strategy is just rubbing"
As Dr. Witold Sokała, a political scientist from the University of Jan Kochanowski in Kielce, says in an interview with Onet, and writer of "The diary of Legal Newspapers", Trump's message about Putin's telephone should be treated as another inflection to which the American leader has managed to get utilized to us, and which does not necessarily should be reflected in reality. — I think speaking about talking to Putin about ending the war in Ukraine may be an effort to keep public interest and suppress charges against Trump in the bud, that he promised to do something and does nothing.. This does not necessarily should be followed up very rapidly erstwhile it comes to the American side, so I inform against besides far-reaching speculation, says Dr. Sokała.
And it indicates that both on the side of the American administration and on the side of Russia there is simply a willingness to play on time. Although another motivations and interests are at the heart of this attitude in both cases.
— 1 can fishy that in the immediate vicinity of Trump, the strategy of dealing with Russia and against the war in Ukraine is only getting worse. No decisions have been made and the probes are ongoing, and Russia, and Ukraine, and the European Union, and what is crucial besides to China. I think that the final U.S. position on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will be a derivative of Washington-Pekin policy, notes Dr. Sokała, adding that the Trump administration is inactive considering different scenarios for China.
— The U.S.'s actions against Russia will be different erstwhile Trump goes into an open confrontation with China, or if he makes a pact with them of 2 superpowers. “the expert points out.
Putin's on time, too. Expert points to 2 powerful threats
Putin besides has his reasons to stay silent about the talks with Trump, due to the fact that the imagination of ending the war gives him at least 2 powerful concerns. — Putin's first concern is that Donald Trump, erstwhile the negotiations have taken place, will put Russia under very hard conditions that could be lethal for this country. “ This is Dr. Sokała. It reminds, among others, of the American announcements oil price simplification games, which would ruin the Russian budget, or those concerning further support of Ukraine, consisting, for example, in allowing the usage of US long-range weapons against targets in deep Russia. “ These are the announcements that origin crucial and understandable panic in Moscow,” adds the expert.
Putin's second large concern, mentioned by Dr. Sokała, is how Russia would cope in a fresh post-war reality. — Even if peace talks were to take place and the war in Ukraine ended, it would be very hard to shift the Russian economy from war to peace. And in Russian conditions, it may turn out to be a process of large economic, political and social tensions,” says the expert, adding that in this context, too, questions arise about whether Putin will last specified a revolution.
Putin won't mess with Trump. And he inactive has a war alibi.
Russia's strategy of waiting out may besides be calculated not to unnecessarily provoke Washington into actions that Russia will harm. “The Russians cannot deny Trump a direct participation in peace talks, due to the fact that it would origin the Americans to annoy and change their course to a much sharper, anti-Russian one, so they most likely adopted a strategy to postpone the gathering with Trump,” Dr. Sokała says. He adds that Putin may be inclined to agree during these appropriate negotiations, for example, to temporary ceasefires, but not necessarily to lasting peace, due to the fact that he will want to keep, for interior use, a "war alibi". — He will inactive be able to tell the Russians that he is at war with the full world, so there is no time to rise the quality of life of his citizens, to fight inflation “the expert points out.
Dr. Sokała claims that Trump's statements about telephone conversations with Putin do not should be excited, due to the fact that it is only after the specifics from the Americans are lost that we can anticipate to accelerate our efforts. Perhaps specified a minute erstwhile Americans want to present their strategy towards the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will be the upcoming conference on safety in Munich.
— For now, we gotta wait for the Americans to decide which way they will go, and secondly to do their job, which is to support Ukraine and strengthen the east flank of NATO,” says Dr. Sokała.
"US should play for Russia's maximum weakness"
What decision could be beneficial for the Americans from the point of view of Washington but besides Kiev or Warsaw? “If I were Trump’s advisor, I would tell him that in the long-term interests of the United States there is simply a solution to the problem of “a sick man of Eurasia”, which is the Russian Federation, erstwhile and for all, due to the fact that there is an excellent chance to do so. The U.S. should play for the maximum weakening of Russia, due to the fact that only the dissolution of this postcolonial creation is able in the long word to safe the stableness of the planet and guarantee the well-being of the Russians themselves, so that they are no longer hostages to subsequent sick wars and ideology “ This is Dr. Sokała.
As the expert adds, the Americans have the strength to force specified a scenario, playing at least to break oil prices on planet markets and supporting centrifugal forces in Russia by intelligence and supporting Ukraine. But he doubts that Donald Trump's thoughts are going this way. — Unfortunately, Trump's actions present do not indicate his willingness to make specified a large offensive that could rebuild the world. The deficiency of a clear U.S. position dares Putin and allows him to think that in negotiations he will be able to number on Washington's gracious eye and can set conditions. This besides hinders the backroom peace talks and reduces the determination of those Russians who would be willing to act in favour of a thorough reconstruction of their country or even the overthrow of Putin," noted Dr. Sokała.
