Continued exports of Russian uranium to the US

The United States continues to bring low enriched uranium from Russia, a basic natural material for fuel production into atomic reactors. This exchange takes place despite reciprocal restrictions: the US import embargo (since May 2024) and the Russian export ban (since November 2024). This is possible on the basis of one-off permits issued by both parties.

From Russia's perspective, the deficiency of actual implementation of the embargo on deliveries to the US underlines the importance of Rosatom and his daughter companies. The authorities did not decide to instrumentalise uranium supplies after 2022 and allowed further cooperation besides with countries which the Kremlin considers hostile – the crowning example is the United States. This suggests that from Moscow's point of view, maintaining the company's position in an crucial marketplace and reputation as a reliable counterparty is crucial as it facilitates operations in another countries. This is peculiarly crucial in terms of winning tenders for the construction of atomic power plants abroad, which long-term ties the state to Russian state companies and increases dependence on FR.

Comment

• The Kremlin uses atomic energy as an incentive for the US to cooperate. The subject of continuing supplies of Russian uranium despite restrictions has been addressed by Vladimir Putin, who, during his gathering with national business on 13 May, recalled that the United States is inactive bringing in "nuclear fuel" from the FR "at its own convenience". A week later, Rosatomu president Alexey Lichachev pointed out that the company is ready to cooperate with the US in the field of uranium exports. This should be seen as 1 of the arguments of ongoing bilateral negotiations, in which the Russians exploit American interest in possible closer economical ties with the FR. The economical component is 1 of the measures for the Kremlin to lead to a revision of Washington's current – critical policy towards Moscow.
• The chances of a complete ban on Russian uranium supply to the United States are decreasing – mainly due to deficiency of alternate options and political conditionality. While exports of the low enriched component declined in this direction in the erstwhile year, it is hard to find whether this trend will continue. The simplification in imports in 2024 is due to the evidence exchange value in the preceding year, which was a derivative of stock building in the face of the threat of imposing sanctions on Russia. According to the public information belonging to Rosatom, Tenex received a licence to sale to the US, which resulted in the completion of deliveries besides in the first 4th of that year. Furthermore, the company is applying for permits for the following years, and the likelihood of obtaining them increases the crucial dependence of the United States on enriched uranium from the FR (in 2023 it was liable for just over 25% of the full demand) with a reasonably limited rate of increase in the capacity of alternate suppliers. In addition, the possible of moving distant from this direction is negatively affected by the continuation of bilateral negotiations on, inter alia, normalisation of relations.
• The Russians compensate for decreasing deliveries to the US by redirecting enriched uranium exports to the Chinese market, which indicates Rosatom's deliberate simplification of political risk. The customs data of the PRC paper a crucial increase in imports of the component from FR, both in value and volume. Interestingly, the growth trend accelerated after 2022 and reached evidence levels in 2024. Large deliveries last year correlate with a strong decline in exports to the United States. At the same time, a steep increase in Chinese uranium sales to the US can be observed between 2023 and 2024. In the preceding period, there was a much lower sales scale and no transportation occurred between 2020 and 2020. This dynamics may indicate any kind of adaptation of Russians to today's conditions which Beijing has permitted. By bringing Russian uranium while exporting its own production to the United States, the PRC allows Moscow to reduce the political risks that could arise if the US embargo were actually implemented. Interestingly, the surge in imports of this component from China was recorded by Washington – this case became the subject of an investigation initiated by the Joe Biden administration in 2025.

Figure 1. Chinese imports of enriched uranium from Russia from 2015 to 2020

Source: Chinese Customs Office.

Figure 2. American imports of enriched uranium from Russia and China from 2015 to 2020

Source: UN Comtrade.