In the election of 30 April 2023, the fresh president of the Republic of Paraguay was elected Santiago Peña from the conservative Colorado party. The winner won 42% of the votes, which means about 1.2 million votes cast. His opponent Efraín Alegre supported by the centreleft Concertación (Spanish Concertación para un Nuevo Paraguay, besides known as Concertatión 2023 or Concertatión Opositora, pol. Coalition for fresh Paraguay) won only 27.5% of the votes, which means about 830 1000 votes cast. Turnout was 63.2% and was 1.98% higher than in the erstwhile 2018 election. The winner will take office on 15 August for 5 years, without the anticipation of repeating his term.
The president-elect completed economical studies in Paraguay and in the field of public administration in the US. He was a associate of the board of directors of the Paraguay Central Bank and worked for the global Monetary Fund in the US. From 2015 to 2017, he was the Minister of Finance of Paraguay and then a associate of the board of Banco Amambay, owned by erstwhile president of the country Horacio Cartesa. His co-workers emphasize his mastery and anticipate him to prosecute an evolutionary policy, his critics point to a deficiency of political experience and accuse him of being a puppet of H. Cartes. President-elect announces a policy friendly to capital and occupation creation, low taxes and attracting abroad capital.
In the election to the 80-member home of Representatives (Spanish: Cámara de Diputados), which is the lower chamber of National legislature (Spanish: Congresso Nacional), the Colorado organization candidates besides won, although detailed results are not yet known at the time of writing this text. In the election for the 45-man legislature (Spanish Cámara de Senadores), Colorado's organization won about 45 % of the vote. The organization besides won governorship positions in at least any of the seventeen provinces of the state.
Paraguay's ruling party
S. Peñi's triumph means to stay in power of the Colorado Party, which has ruled the country since 1947, with a break only for 2008-2012 erstwhile the president was a Roman Catholic bishop (moved to secular state in 2008) Fernando Lugo, overthrown as a consequence of a parliamentary coup d'état in June 2012 (similar to Prime Minister Imran Khan in Pakistan in March 2022 and president Pedro Castillo in Peru in December 2022).
Founded in 1887 by Paraguayan military and political leader Bernardino Cabalerro (1839-1912), who carried out a coup in 1880, remaining president until 1886, and indirectly controlling political life in the country, The Colorado organization built its dominant position during Alfredo Stroessner's dictatorship from 1954 to 1989. In this period until 1962 Colorado was the only legal organization in the country. Her liberal wing with Gen. Andrés Rodríguez besides carried out a US-supported and Roman Catholic coup, resulting in the removal from the power of A. Stroessner.
Liberal opposition
Opposition candidate E. Alegre led his run primarily under the slogan of combating corruption, as Colorado built a country-wide strategy of interdependencies with business and state administration for decades; E. Alegre announced, among others, the imprisonment of president H. Cartes and the full Cartes clan, who, according to him, controls the Paraguayan mafia underground.
E. Alegre is president of the Authentic extremist Liberal organization (Spanish: Partido Liberal extremist Auténtico, PLRA), whose political tradition, as in Colorado, dates back to 1887. The group is simply a associate of the Liberal and ideological Internationals, and programically stands on the ground of progressive and social liberalism. utilizing control of PLRA, E. Alegre issued his candidacy in the presidential election for the 3rd time, despite losing in 2013 (he then received 37% of the vote) and 2018 (he received 43% of the vote). The current 3rd loss, with a fatal score of 27.5% of the vote, most likely means for E. Alegre political death.
In addition to the PLRA, the Concertatión consists of the centre-rights organization of the Beloved Homeland (hisp. Partido Patria Querida, PPQ), the Social Democratic organization of the National Meetings (hisp. Paretido Encuentro Nacional), the centristist-progressist (puts on "youth") the Political organization of Hagamos (hisp. Partido Revolucionario Febrerista (hisp. Partido Democrático Progresista), the Social Democratic and Social Revolutionary organization of Hagamos (hisp. Partido Revolucionario Febrerista) (hisp. Partido Revolucionario Febrerista) is simply a name commemorating the February revolution of 1936, which took place in the power of the first left-wing president of Paraguay, Colonel Rafael Agrant Franco, the centrright Movement of Awakening (hisp. Movimiento Despertar), and indigenist organization of fresh Paraguay, Partiuku (Prhiwag. Parthiep. Partioido, Partioido)
The request of the opposition of regional importance was a revision of the agreements on the Brazilian-Paragine Dam Itaipú and the Argentine-Paragine Dam Yaciretá on the Paraná River. In turn, E. Alegre's request of global importance was to transfer diplomatic designation from Taiwan to China, the largest importer of Paraguayan soy and beef. Paraguay remains 1 of thirteen states holding diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which is the legacy of the anti-communist ideology of Colorado and the regulation of A. Stroessner.
Paraguayan anti-system
An interesting phenomenon was the candidacy of the anti-system lawyer Paraguayo Cubasa, the head of the National Crusade organization (Spanish Partido Cruzada Nacional, PCN). The group is sometimes characterized as right-wing or far-right and its ideology is referred to as right-wing populism, Paraguayan nationalism with anti-Brazilian blades, authoritarianism and anti-establishmentism. The group gained popularity among another things calling for the restoration of the death punishment – besides for corruption.
P. Cubas finished 3rd in the presidential election, however, winning small little votes – as much as 23% – than the Liberal candidate. P. Cubas is accused by Liberals of breaking up the electoral unity of the opposition, but in fact it was E. Alegre who rejected his proposal for a joint start in the presidential-presidential dut, which yet resulted in PCN leaving Concertación in August 2022. The PCN leader is known on the Paraguayan political scene as a expressive personality: in 2016 he beat the justice with a belt and defiled himself in his office, in 2018 he was elected Senator but his mandate was suspended on charges of "abuse of power" and "goliganism" (a fewer times he got into fights with another senators). In 2020, any PCN activists abandoned the organization accusing P. Cubas and his wife of "authoritarianism". In 2021, P. Cubas was to beat and kick the election official.
Responses to Election Results
S. Peñi's victories congratulated Argentina's president Alberto Férnandez and Brazil's president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. On behalf of Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen, the winner besides congratulated the diplomatic typical of the island in Paraguay, announcing the continuation of the "fruitful cooperation" to date, while Taiwan's abroad Ministry issued a message: "Based on common values specified as democracy and freedom and the conventional relationship of our 2 countries, our country will deepen cooperation and common relations with the fresh government of Paraguay". S. Peñi's victories were besides congratulated on Twitter and announced the smooth transfer of power of president Mario Abdo Benítez, who, however, did not appear at the electoral evening.
The liberalised economy
The challenge for the fresh president will be to deal with the fiscal deficit, economical stagnation, force from beef and soy producers demanding the transfer of diplomatic designation from Taiwan to China, modernisation of the country's agricultural-based economy, neutralising corruption charges. The authoritative economical data quoted in April by "El Pais" mention economical growth of 4% per year, inflation controlled at 5% and low taxation burden. However, the same text besides cites little optimistic data: 70% of the population has no savings, 60% of the population works on their own account or casually earns below the minimum wage, most of the taxation gross comes from VAT, the wealth elite of which is Colorado's base effectively avoiding, since the COVID-19 epidemic, price inflation from the basket of basic goods and services reaches 30%.
According to the economist Verónici Serafini quoted by the newspaper, a large percent of Paraguayans have no bank account, live from casual work, pensions, unemployment benefits or loans with usury-counted interest. Collective transport is defiled private buses and advanced quality medical care does not be (the Paraguayan wellness minister underwent a complex operation in Brazil). Despite this, wellness care in Paraguay is among the most costly in South America. Following the economical and civilizational underdevelopment of the country, 1.5 million Paraguayans left their homeland – according to V. Serafina, it is hard to find individual in Paraguay who has no mother, father or aunt working in Spain, Argentina, Brazil or the USA.
The problem is besides the agricultural situation, which is dominated by multi-hectare assets active in beef production and area monoculture of soya. They gradually displace healthy food producing and giving more jobs to peasant household farms. Forced to leave their farms, the peasants settle for “los bañados” - in mediocre districts of Asunción on the banks of the Paraguay River, where there are no basic public services specified as water supply, sewerage or police. Since the dictatorship of A. Stroessner, according to UN data, 85% of arable land has been in the hands of 2.5% of the population and the tendency to concentration of land ownership is increasing. The Colorados electoral electorate is the owners of red lands over the rivers Paraguay and Paraña, where soy monoculture and cattle pastures are spreading today.
Since the dictatorship of A. Stroessner, the expropriation of the people of Áche is besides dated to the east part of the country. The Colorado organization has pursued the interests of the Yankees and European mining corporations in these areas, dealing with the timber manufacture and beef production. The Paraguayan Army performed in 1970. Áche's expulsions and turned them into slaves. As a result, she accused the United Nations in 1974. Paraguay for the usage of slavery and genocide, and only a fewer 100 Áche survived the repression of this period. Today, the first tropical jungle survived mainly in reserve areas for the native population of these lands. Their population presently includes about 400,000 people and will belong to ethnos specified as Guarani, Enxet, Quom, Ayoreo.
Toothless Conservativeism
Victory S. Peñi means in interior politics of Paraguay that the ‘Honor Colorado’ faction associated with the office of president of the country H. Cartes was regained. In the primary of the Colorado organization in 2017, S. Peña lost to the representing faction “Colorado Añeté” (and having Lebanese roots) current president of the state Mario Abdo Benítez. However, in the primaries in August 2022, S. Peña won with the candidate, Arnold Wiens (from Russian Mennonite Germans), which gave him a nomination in this year's presidential election. Following the triumph in S. Peña's presidential election in his speech, he called for unity respective times, but there was no President-in-Office of M. Abdo Benitez present at the electoral evening, who congratulated the winner only on Twitter status.
Worldview S. Peña differs from her electoral opponent E. Alegre only with nuances. Both are centre-right conservatives: married Catholics and fathers of multi-children families, opponents of abortion and marriages for perverts. It is no coincidence that the current run was the first in years, in which there was no tv debate between candidates – they would have nothing to argue about. In the final part of the campaign, fearing the effects of a fractional crack in the Colorado home party, S. Peña appealed to 338,000 public administration staff who together with their families give about 4 million votes – their jobs depend strictly on the political favour of the ruling party.
On the side of global demoliberalism
In an interview given by S. On 28 April 2023, a associate of the paper "El País", the then presidential candidate of Paraguay complained about the U.S. sending Ambassador Marc Ostfield identifying himself as "LGBT": "It is no coincidence that it happened both in Paraguay and in a conservative country like Hungary. I think this creates discomfort in various sectors, especially those most conservative. This can surely be interpreted as the signal they want to give (jankes – R.L.). We Paraguayans come from a conventional culture in which we realize that the household is the center of society, and the household is simply a conventional family, not only due to the fact that it is written in the Scriptures and so says faith, but besides due to the fact that it is enshrined in the Constitution," adding, however, that "We cannot, however, compromise bilateral relations." Despite conservative declarations, the president-elect will so most likely accept the US's humiliation of his country and the violation of Asunción's cultural sovereignty by Washington.
In the same interview, President-elect announces the re-location of the seat of the Paraguayan diplomatic representation in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem (previously it was briefly there in 2018): "I am powerfully convinced that the embassy should be in Jerusalem. I was in Israel 2 years ago, the president is based in Jerusalem, legislature is based in Jerusalem and they consider Jerusalem as their capital. Paraguay voted in the United Nations for the establishment of Israel, and since then we have been bound by the bonds of large love. My intention is for the embassy to return to Jerusalem.”
In relations with China S. Peña seems to be putting the demoliberal ideology ahead of farmers' interests in agriculture in most countries – he besides said in the interview cited above twice: “Paraguay has historical relations with Taiwan and cannot be defined only in economical terms. Trade is important, we must make progress, but we must besides realize that relations must be based on democratic values. This does not mean that we should reject relations with countries that do not have a democratic culture. We respect each other, but we believe that our relation with Taiwan is of large value. Paraguay must make its own strength before it can deepen its trade relations with a country like China. Continental China is the main supplier of goods imported by Paraguay and buys Paraguayan soya. Paraguay is simply a large maker of organic sugar coming to China, so I think we should not wander around reasoning that changing diplomatic relations will supply solutions to all Paraguayans."
A strategy that cannot be undermined in Paraguay
Colorado organization governments in Paraguay proceed as a client strategy of global demoliberalism (System). During planet War II, the then Paraguayan dictator Higinio Morínigo (ruled between 1940 and 1948) was aware of the Axis States and their favoring Argentina, resulting in Washington's reaction, which launched its own relief program for Paraguay and began to force Brazilian interests in that country. This resulted in the fall of Argentina's power position at the end of planet War II and the suppression of its influence from Paraguay by Yankee and Brazilian influences.
Already a longtime dictator Alfredo Stroessner (ruled between 1954 and 1989, this period is sometimes called "El Pageto") applied a "bandwagoning" strategy to the US, supporting the Yankee intervention in the Dominican Republic in 1965 and the same year's intervention in Vietnam, and Paraguayan soldiers were trained at the School of America in Fort Benning, USA and in the controlled Panama Canal Zone. The funds provided by the US were in 1960. 40% of the Paraguay budget and A. Stroessner himself called the US Ambassador to Asunción "an additional associate of the government". El Pageto so ended immediately erstwhile A. Stroessner ceased to be comfortable for the US.
The differences between the ‘Honor’ and ‘Añeteté’ factions to which the Colorado organization is presently divided are barely apparent, however, it seems that the H. Cartes-S faction. Peñi is little comfortable for Joe Biden's administration than would be the M. Abdo Benítez-A faction. Wiensa. H. Cartres was accused in July 2022 by the United States of having been motivated by corruption and financial advantages of participating in the global criminal network and contacts with terrorist organizations and entities considered by the United States to be a threat to their security. This led to sanctions for both him and Vice president Hugo Velázquez, preventing the second from moving in the presidential elections under discussion. The president-elect, in the above-mentioned interview with “El Pais” defended his political boss respective times and is sometimes considered to be his figurehead.
The appointment of M. Ostfield as US Ambassador to Paraguay besides shows that Paraguay's cultural conservatism present is simply a akin image burden to Washington's erstwhile repressive authoritarianism of A. Stroessner. The differences between Colorado factions barely be in this area, but the outgoing president M. Abdo Benítez declared "opening" for a discussion on abortion, and the president-elect does not make akin declarations. In turn, S. Peña's stated intention to relocate the seat of the Paraguayan embassy in Israel to Jerusalem does not seem to be in line with the alternatively skeptical and reluctant line of J. Biden's administration to Benjamin Netanyahu's politics. What brings Asunción and Washington together is undoubtedly at the hand of the last announcement of Paraguay to keep diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
It besides appears that the announcement of a more basic S position. Peñi vis-à-vis Brasíla on the Itaipu Dam may not be beneficial for the US, trying to isolate Buenos Aires in South America and push Brazilian interests as its regional plenipotent. In May 2019, the current president of Paraguay signed a contract with Brazil on this issue. This led to an effort at impeachment against him and forced him to terminate the agreement in August 2022. The restoration of Paraguayan interests towards the dam is besides 1 of the leading slogans of the anti-establishment candidate P. Cubas. The U.S. must so lay between the danger of Paraguay turning against Argentina and the overly submissiveness of Paraguayan administrations towards Brasíla, which may paradoxically be the catalyst for specified a phrase. The situation is further complicated by the emancipation of Brazil itself under the regulation of L. I. Lula da Silva and the ignorance of the October elections in Argentina.
The liberal opposition, despite political unification under a common electoral umbrella, is overwhelmed by the personality of the inept and politically "used" as a continuous "winner" of E. Alegre. From the point of view of the Antisystem, its only value is the request to transfer the designation of diplomatic Paraguay from Taiwan to China, which would theoretically harm Washington's influence in any way and rather practically service the interests of its Chinese rivals. Apart from this 1 element, however, the liberal opposition is not an alternate to the Colorado Party, but a systemic complement to it.
It is hard to measure the anti-systemic importance of the National Crusade Party. Firstly, due to the fact that there may be reasonable doubts as to whether the initiative of Mr Cubas is authentic, whether it is just a "teater" organized by Colorados to channel anti-establishment moods and divide the opposition (according to the Constitution of 1992, the Paraguayan elections have only 1 circular to hinder the opposition from forming a coalition against Colorado and transferring votes to stronger candidates). Secondly, even if P. Cubas' initiative is authentic, it is very likely that it will prove to be an ephemeral of 1 period and will leave nothing politically lasting.
It is so almost certain that Paraguay will not become part of the ‘marea dew’ and will stay a conservative island on the politically left-wing South American continent, besides being the client state of Washington and the regional base of the System.
Ronald Lasecki
