Every 4th Pole wants to leave the Union. fresh IBRiS study

Survey Results

The United Surveys by IBRiS survey for Virtual Poland was conducted on 5–8 December by CATI and CAWI on a example of 1000 people. In this study, 65.7% of participants voted against Poland's speech from the EU, including 48.6% powerfully opposed the "polexit", and 17.1% chose the option "preferably not". At the same time, 24.7% of respondents would support the exit from the Union, of which 11.6% would definitely and 13.1% would alternatively do so.

The most Eurosceptic groups in Poland are men, people of working age, right-wing voters and agrarian residents. The EU's exit supports 28% of men and 21% of women, and among those aged 30-49, this percent is 38%, which refutes the stereotype that the “polexite” is mainly for older Poles.

The most pro-European group are the youngest voters (18-29), with 61% support for EU membership. Among the agrarian population, 35% support the exit from the Union, while in average and large cities, EU supporters are between 60% and over 80%. The voters of Law and Justice (47%) and the Confederation (41%) besides show advanced support for "polexite".

At the other pole there are ruling coalition voters, of whom more than 80% support Poland's remaining in the European Union, including voters KO, Left and 3rd Way.

The undisputed horizon of civilization? Not anymore.

Even respective years ago, Poland's exit from the European Union was a political fantasy – said IBRiS president Marcin Duma. – In the 2003 accession referendum, more than 77% of voters advocated joining the EU, and for the following years the support for membership remained at 80 to 90 percent, while the exit supporters were only a fewer percent of the population. Today, 20 years after accession, we are in a different place.

Pride stressed that while Eurosceptics inactive represent a minority, their numbers are adequate to truly influence the political scene.

Poland is at a point where the European Union is no longer an undisputed civilization horizon. 2 thirds of the population inactive says no to the exit, but 1 4th says yes, and almost 10% have no opinion. This is simply a major change compared to a decade ago. – he added.

The president of the poll besides assessed that the results of the survey show a profound social change in Poland over the last 2 decades. As a major threat to EU ties, he identified Russian misinformation that strengthens anti-EU attitudes. He warned that combining this with another factors could rapidly lead to dangerous changes, recalling the example of Brexit, where disinformation and the radicalisation of public opinion rapidly increased support for the exit from the EU.