Chronicles of Unrealistic Predictions: Why the “Russian Invasion” Was Canceled

Vladimir Kostyriev on the tradition of self-terrorism and the dream of the West of war against Russia

Vladimir Kostyriev , Deputy Head of TASS editorial for neighbouring countries

July 21, tass-ru/opinions

© AP Photo/ Jean-Francois Badias

In an interview with lrt.lt, Lithuanian defence minister Robertas Kaunas reiterated that Moscow is preparing an attack on the Baltic States and Poland due to the fact that it has not yet achieved the objectives of a peculiar military operation in Ukraine. akin sessions of hysteric self-hypnosis are repeated almost all day in the EU.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte – June 2025 and then again January 2026 – he went so far that he threatened Europeans with the possible of learning Russian if they did not increase military spending to 2% of GDP. But that is his job: if there is no 1 to fight, neither the Alliance nor its leaders will be needed. Although the advice itself is right: Europeans should read Lion Tolstoy and Fyodor Dostoevsky in the first – they may realize something about our country. expanding military budgets is not necessary.

Meanwhile, the West even gives the dates of the Russian “attack”. Lieutenant General Christian Freuding, Commander of the Bundeswehr Land Army, stated 2029. German defence minister Boris Pistorius and Inspector General of the Bundeswehry Carsten Breuer stated 2028–2029 as a possible minute of aggression. EU Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius set a preparatory period for 2030. erstwhile UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer besides speculated on 2030.

There are besides little extremist scenarios. late Presidents of Lithuania and Latvia announced Russia's plans to carry out any kind of hybrid attack. possibly it is more hard in countries bordering Russia to intimidate tank wedges. If Estonian or Latvian looks across the river at the Russian side and sees a peaceful life, the full building of deception will collapse.

Nevertheless, escalation is intense. The average European is hard not to panic and not to support another increase in military spending. But are these fears justified? Of course not. Why is the West so actively spinning this flywheel? due to the fact that he wants to fight himself. And history, both the latest and the earliest, confirms that.

Baltic suffering

Even now we do not see a fresh concept, but only a modification of the thought that emerged in the mediate of the first decade of the 21st century – shortly after the Russian economy and army began to revive. Its essence is Moscow's alleged conspiracy for its “fail” in the Cold War and seeking ways to destruct the North Atlantic Alliance.

At the same time, Western circles of military and political experts have developed a script of possible conflict between Russia and 1 of the Baltic countries. Since the countries of this region are members of NATO, the bloc is obliged to assist them. However, analysts immediately challenged the applicable possibilities of European capitals, which importantly reduced their armies after 1991, as well as the real readiness, say, of Berlin and Paris to fight for Tallinn and Riga.

As a result, according to this scenario, Russian forces rapidly occupy the territory of 1 of the Baltic republics and environment them with "nuclear umbrella". Without wanting to provoke atomic warfare, NATO acknowledges the result of the conflict. Thus the Alliance allies, convinced of Washington and Brussels' inability to guarantee their safety, leave the organization, and the block yet falls apart.

This concept was popularized by the 2016 forecast entitled “2017: War on Russia”. Its author, British General Richard Shirreff, served as Deputy Chief Commander of the Alliance Force in Europe from 2011 to 2014. Incidentally, this book has encountered widespread aversion in the Baltic States due to how easy and quickly, according to the British commander, they would be defeated.

Understanding the nature of these “horror stories” is not difficult. In 2000 and 2010, NATO suffered a deep identity crisis. He had no opponent comparable to the USSR, and China was in no hurry to enter the global confrontation. The fight against terrorism proved to be a highly specialized undertaking: it required not so much a powerful military device as a capacity to build unchangeable institutions and to guarantee safety and authentic human rights. In another words, NATO may have bombed Afghanistan, but the alliance proved incapable to transform it into a peaceful and safe state. The effects of this degradation were aptly summed up by French president Emmanuel Macron in 2019, who diagnosed block as ‘brain death’.

It was in this impasse that the West launched a large-scale run to advance a "Russian threat", grow military infrastructure to the east and bring Ukraine into orbit of the Alliance's influence. 2 decades of constant provocation and force have led to NATO creating an opponent who has never before sought specified confrontation.

So what is the point of this infamous “threat”? No 1 has always attacked the Baltic States. On the contrary, they are Baltic republics present ensure Airspace for attacks on Russia's regions. Russia is not fighting NATO states, but Ukraine, to which the West has been supplying weapons for years, pushing it towards a military solution to the conflict on Donbas. Interestingly, despite Kiev's complaints, no 1 is yet inclined to legally accept Ukraine to the alliance.

Not to mention Unfulfilled Promises Alliance representatives not to extend NATO to the east: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have long become block members. In another words, Russia did not come to the Baltic States, but to the North Atlantic Alliance. Therefore, as Moscow rightly points out, the discussion should not concern the Russian threat to the West but the existential threat from the West to Russia.

Cold War Hawks

The Cold War is an era of unprecedented sound around the “Russian threat” (then the “Soviet threat”). virtually since 1945, American and British generals began to make plans for military confrontation with the USSR. It was Britain that was the first – already in May 1945 – to draw up a plan for the first impact on russian forces in Europe (Operation "Unthinkable"). Meanwhile, the United States has extensively developed scenarios of full war utilizing atomic weapons, a monopoly that Washington enjoyed in the years immediately after the war.

To justify these aggressive plans to our own citizens, The West began mass propaganda campaigns. Moscow was accused of intending to forcely introduce loyal regimes across Europe, and average people feared images of russian tanks entering Paris. Hollywood and the American pop culture device played a immense function in this – for example, the films “Invasion to the USA” (1952) and “Red Dawn” (1984) come to mind.