In late February 2023, the Chinese abroad Ministry published 12 points on the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian War. This was presented in the media as a peace plan in the war in Ukraine, although it truly should be considered as a presentation of the Chinese position towards the ongoing conflict. The points contained in it seem to clearly specify enemy number 1 for Chinese, which are not the United States at all... They besides specify the nonsubjective of Chinese abroad policy in the context of the imagination of global governance. The position of the Chinese MFA can indeed be treated as a peace plan, but not for the war in Ukraine, but for the full world.
Above all, however, it should be pointed out that the context of the full "peace plan" is rather obvious. The Chinese clearly communicate that their top enemy is... War. In myself. And it is no wonder, due to the fact that nothing harms Chinese: the economy and interests, like the armed conflict, which leads to the disintegration of global governance. A war that divides the planet into 2 blocks, which translates not only into military and political terms, but primarily into economical ones. In consequence to the invasion of Ukraine, the West started an economical war with the Russian Federation. This leads to the breaking of supply chains, limiting options for freight transport, while hindering 3rd countries' cooperation with Russia.
At the same time, both sides (West and Russia) are fighting on an energy level, which in turn strikes western economies, deepens and fuels the crisis situation, and all this is the origin of decreasing consumption. Western consumption, on which China built its economical power. China was feeding and inactive feeding on exports to the US and the European Union. The ongoing war – which has a negative impact on the economical situation of the planet – spoils Chinese interests.
Therefore, the Chinese ‘peace plan’ is de facto a public message that China intends to start the fight for planet peace. The fact that China's president Xi Jinping went to Moscow first should make Putin think. Because, If the Chinese start fighting for peace in the world, then Russia may not stay stone and stone.. Especially since the Russians are the ones who started the war. It is clear to me that China has sent Russia a informing message. This is the way to treat the content of 12 points, which would mean the defeat of the Russian Federation in Ukraine. Putin seemingly came to akin conclusions and immediately invited Xi Jinping to Moscow on 20-23 March. To convince the Chinese leader to the Russian point of view. And buy his favor.
12 points against Putin
The content of this message from the Chinese Ministry of abroad Affairs contains a number of unfavourable – from the point of view of Russia – records. In the beginning there is talk of sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries. There is no uncertainty that Russia violated the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
The second point states that the safety of 1 country should not be implemented at the expense of others... This phrase, in turn, strikes the Russian communicative that the Russians were forced to invade due to NATO's threat. It is besides said that the safety of the region should not be achieved by expanding military blocks, which in turn refers to NATO and possibly extending the Pact to Ukraine. At the same time, the Chinese expressed their clear opposition to solving even complex problems with military action.
The Chinese then point out that the only sensible option is to deescalate leading to conversation, halt fighting and end the conflict. The following points item global law on conflict and treatment of prisoners, human rights and humanitarian issues. These are comments that can undoubtedly be considered an effort to delight the West.
At the same time, the Chinese proceed to inform against atomic power plants being attacked and voltage escalation through atomic weapons threats. They call for facilitating exports of Ukrainian cereals. Which again refers to Russian activities, not Western ones.
Only in 10 points do Chinese call for the removal of unilateral sanctions. What in turn can be read as support for Russia, but it should be remembered that China is besides under US force from duties and various regulations on technology and production.
In the 11th point, the Chinese side explained why it felt that all erstwhile thesis were relevant. This is about maintaining the stableness of industrial chains and supplies... According to the Chinese, the precedence is to mitigate the effects of the crisis and to halt utilizing legal, economical and financial mechanisms as a political tool in global relations. Finally, it was concluded that the post-war reconstruction programme was an crucial aspect.
To sum up the full thing you can imagine the situation as Vladimir Putin reads a Chinese statement, fades and asks for a glass of water. After the first shock, he takes the telephone and dials Xi Jinping's number. He urges him to velocity up his visit to Moscow and announces a loud reception in a good atmosphere. He then convenes a ministerial gathering and orders them to prepare an offer for the Chinese. It could have been about like this.
Of course, a 12-point message is not entirely conclusive. From the Ukrainian point of view, controversy raises the thought of ceasefire and start peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. For the consequence of this would be the Russians' maintenance of already acquired territories. This would besides endanger to frost – not end – conflict, as the Americans point out. However, it should be remembered that specified a script is besides unfavourable from Moscow's perspective. Obtaining a part of Ukrainian territory would in no way improve Putin's position towards the West. Russia would not have a convenient position to set the conditions for NATO or the European Union. She wouldn't take control of Ukraine. Her political and economical situation would have been much worse than before February 24, 2022. Putin's credibility would not increase, and Europe would no longer return to the way of dependence on Russian energy supplies. Russia has lost its ability to usage energy blackmail against European countries. Even Germany built LNG terminals.
Meanwhile, if Putin does not accomplish a definitive triumph in Ukraine, his position towards the West will be weaker than always before. That's what the Chinese are talking about. For Russia which cannot impose its conditions on the West is Russia, which will not be willing to accept the conditions imposed by NATO and the EU. specified Russia would be more willing to cooperate with China. On Chinese terms, of course.
In conclusion, the Chinese peace plan is fundamentally unacceptable to Moscow. Putin fights Ukraine to gain concrete benefits from the West. Why? Because, among another things, he needs to strengthen his position towards... China. To have Beijing treat Moscow as an equal partner, not a milk cow. The Russians request western technologies – including military ones – to keep themselves in the arms race in the long run. They know the Chinese won't give them that technology. Firstly, any Chinese technology was developed from those originating in Russia. So on these levels, the Russians will not make a technological leap based on cooperation with China. Secondly, the Chinese do not share their own discoveries. They're careful. know-how And they don't let it run outside. Consent to the Chinese peace concept would mean that an costly operation against Ukraine that has lasted since 2014 would be in vain. In 2012, Vladimir Putin owned everything, including Russia's independency and the EuroRussia concept from Vladivostok to Lisbon. Then he broke it off. reset from the U.S., and he bid more, as I described in the book and, among others, in the article: “The Russian Federation has already lost – the question of how much harm can it do?”.
If the consequence of this full scandal was to bring Russia into the function of the vassal of China, it would all mean the complete disaster of Vladimir Putin's policy. Putina, who would lose at the same time de facto The war on Ukraine. This could mean its end, and the end of autocrats and dictators frequently besides has a definite end.
Draw Game
So, if Putin is fighting a war in Ukraine to dictate to the West specified conditions that will strengthen Russia towards China, why should the Chinese support the Russians in the conflict? From Beijing's point of view, the draw is at the minute most beneficial. The area would give hope for a return to the concept of the fresh Land way with thread through Russia and even Ukraine. The normalisation of global relations and the deficiency of division into military and political blocs would support the planet trade system. Russia, which would not win the war, would be weak and susceptible to China's influence. The West, which would not have clearly defeated Russia, would gotta face the political Russian-Chinese bloc led by Beijing. Yes The freezing of the conflict is in the interest of the People's Republic of China. And only in her interest. due to the fact that specified a script would not be beneficial either for Ukraine or for the West – for reasons which I think do not request to be explained here.
It is besides worth noting Xi Jinping's message during his visit to Moscow on 20-23 March 2023. The Chinese president stated that "our 2 countries consolidated and developed bilateral relations on the basis of deficiency of alliances, deficiency of confrontation and avoidance of attacks on any 3rd party". This conviction has its importance, as it reminds Putin that Russia's building of good relations with China has so far taken place, inter alia, due to the fact that Russia did not attack 3rd countries. Of course, with this “not attacking” issue it is controversial, but the effect – in my opinion – is that The Chinese built and want to build relations with Russia, which will not origin unnecessary and damaging Chinese business scandals. American-Russian rivalry is good for the Chinese, but war isn't.. Even if Xi knew and accepted the Russian plan for a three-day "special operation" in Ukraine (and most likely so), he is surely not satisfied with the fact that this operation has been going on for over a year and is becoming a serious problem for global economical governance.
Activation of China
One cannot neglect to see that the Chinese have taken active action to stabilise the regions and silence disputes in places where their interests are placed. So far they've been referred to as freeriderswho didn't take work for the strategy that made them earn. In fresh weeks, however, they have actively participated in negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Which resulted in a tripartite agreement. They took a position in the context of the war in Ukraine, which is surely the subject of talks between Xi and Putin during an ongoing visit to Moscow.
What forced the restrained Chinese so far to return specified a phrase in abroad policy? After all, participation in negotiations and activity in solving another people's disputes is primarily a responsibility. And political costs.
The answer to this question may be that The Chinese are horrified by a imagination in which the polarization of the global arena leads to the fast breaking of supply chains while negatively affecting Chinese economical and social plans. Especially since the interior situation of China is not as pink as what I wrote about in the text entitled "China on the eve of the crisis. They will not hit Taiwan’
W Beijing was understood that no 1 would win in keeping things fragile on an economical and financial level. The world’s so-far “fighter” has himself engaged in a dispute and conflict that he clearly intends to win. IfThe Chinese will not take matters into their own hands, so – like Germany – they will become victims of not their war. It should besides be remembered that the Chinese nightmare is the state where the Chinese economy no longer needs Europe and the United States. It's not just about losing profits, it's about political influence. Meanwhile, the full-scale armed conflict in Europe has made the Old Continent countries realize that business is not everything. There's no safety. Prosperity, And money has a nationality. In this context, just as independency from Russian gas and oil is being built, so on many levels the West builds economical and technological independency from China. This is simply a negative trend for Beijing. Of course, in the United States, it has been going on for any time, and Europe has only just begun to wake up. The first signal was COVID-19, while the war in Ukraine has already completely changed the perception of economics.
Paradoxically, both Germany and the Chinese applied their bricks to the fact that the war in Ukraine broke out. Angela Merkel in 2014 – after the first Russian invasion of Ukraine – began a task to build the Nord Stream II gas pipeline. Which was a signal for Putin that whatever does not happen in Ukraine, Germany will proceed its strategical interests with Russia. Xi Jinping, on the another hand, did not dissuade Putin of the thought of a three-day "special operation", and accepting this undertaking was an incentive for the Kremlin.
The Chinese are making Putin a bill.
In view of all these considerations, it is clear that if China's top enemy is war and Putin's war has begun, then the solution to this large Chinese problem is to suppress Vladimir Putin's fierceness. The Chinese do not have much influence on how the Ukrainians behave. They may, of course, buy them somehow, but in Kiev they do not think of a rotten truce in exchange for trinkets.
Ukrainians are curious in defeating Russians erstwhile and for all (or erstwhile all 20-30 years to have time to rebuild). While at the same time recovering at least part (as not all) of the territories taken inactive in 2014. This West has an influence on Kiev's attitude due to the fact that it is thanks to Western resources that Ukrainians can inactive fight. Meanwhile, the West declares unequivocal support for Ukraine in the war, and any states – like the US/UK/Poland – seem determined to let Ukrainians to accomplish a full victory. So what the Chinese can actually do is someway influence the Kremlin's decisions. Here there are 2 options: mild and drastic.
An effective persuasion and encouragement to start the peace process are a much easier, more favourable and cheaper policy solution. The carrot show. It should besides be remembered that it is in the interests of both China and Russia to officially show deep relationship and cooperation. For then both Moscow and Beijing – in their own separate negotiations with Washington – have a stronger position. This demonstration of relationship is essential even if there are disputes or hard negotiations on the Moscow – Beijing line. No wonder Xi’s visit to Moscow is accompanied by smiles, gestures of friendship, and patting each another on the back. That kind of motion is for show. This may not have much to do with what is actually happening in Russian-Chinese relations. Both countries show us what they want to show us.
There is no uncertainty that Xi Jinping's actions and attitudes show that he intends to solve the war in Ukraine in a mild and constructive way for Putin. In this respect, he will search methods which, on the 1 hand, will give a chance to put out the fight, and on the another hand will not destruct good Chinese-Russian relations. The problem is that Vladimir Putin is determined to defeat Ukraine and proceed to exert force on the West. I don't want to surrender. Even if the act of surrender and tribute were to be paid to Beijing alternatively than Washington. The Kremlin authorities are determined to fight in Ukraine until victory. Whatever the cost. Only that these costs are besides borne from Beijing.
Xi Jinping is improbable to be able to implement its maximum plan and lead to an immediate ceasefire. However, through negotiations with Putin, it can set a certain timeframe for the latter. The period during which the Chinese will patiently wait for the Russians to settle the conflict in their favor. However, Moscow will gotta pay for this patience.
Mishutin "Russia????????????? is ready to intensify cooperation with China on investment and trade, energy, natural gas, peaceful usage of atomic energy, aviation and space, technological and technological innovation, transport and logistics"
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— Łukasz Kobierski (@LukasKobierski) March 22, 2023
The Chinese issue a bill to the Russians for the costs incurred in connection with the ongoing war. As long as Putin has to pay compensation, Beijing will be willing to accept the ongoing state of affairs. However, Chinese toleration of war in Ukraine surely has its limits and is not unconditional. The force exerted by Xi Jinping may prove to be another argument for the Russians to search to defeat Ukraine as rapidly as possible.
Furthermore, in my opinion, China is not expected to supply direct military support to Russia. Of course, Beijing can send supplies and, above all, supply tools and machines that will let Russians to increase their military possible (through their own production). On the another hand, it is doubtful that Beijing risked a situation in which Ukrainians would get Chinese production equipment on the battlefield and announce it to the world. For the United States seems to be looking for an excuse to push China even harder, together with the European Union. Europeans are reluctant to face the Chinese, but they can choose to do so if it turns out that the Beijing authorities are no different from the Moscow authorities. And they could be a threat to global safety in the future. Therefore, it is doubtful that the Chinese – in the name of “friend” with the Russians – bet the consequence of the ongoing conflict by giving their own skin as collateral.
Written by: Buy a book or ebook: “Third DEKADA. The planet present and in 10 years” and find out what may be waiting for us in the coming years. In addition to the war in Ukraine, which was described in the forecast chapters.
Three DEKADA. planet present and in 10 years
Two magpies per tail
In addition to convincing Putin, the Chinese can besides play harder against the United States. And make the Americans press the Ukrainians about the ceasefire, too. If the U.S. felt a threat in the Far East, then there would be hope to get this effect. Only that no 1 in the Far East will challenge the United States. but the Chinese themselves...
Therefore, for months we have been seeing an increase in tension on the Beijing-Washington line, as well as Chinese pressures towards Taiwan. The issue of force on Taiwan, however, is very problematic and can be costly. If Beijing is exerting force on Taiwan, it exposes itself to Western repression, and the invasion of the island would mean a disaster for the Chinese economy (a cut off from the outlets, a problem with gas and oil imports, a semiconductor deficit, a hazard of military failure and an outbreak of direct conflict with the US).
Fortunately for Beijing, the Chinese have a "tool" in the form of Kim Jong Un. And this tool has been put back in motion. The intensification of rocket trials from North Korea is besides obvious. Nonverbal threats are directed not only to the United States, but besides to their allies North Korea and Japan.
Thus, the possible consequences of force on the US will fall on North Korea, which can no longer be sanctioned more severely... On the another hand, creating a threat in the Korean Peninsula is to divert Americans from the Ukrainian direction. In this way, the Chinese can play both “remis” in Ukraine and besides effort to win in their own negotiations with Washington.
This kind of road seems to have been chosen in Beijing. However, this presumption has 1 weak point. What if the Americans consider that they are able to halt Russia in Ukraine and at the same time pacify North Korea with the another hand?
Russia may become the first victim of a Chinese peace struggle
What happens if neither Americans can force the Ukrainians to compromise, nor Vladimir Putin can be persuaded to halt the war? What is China's situation erstwhile Washington's policy is uncompromising besides towards Beijing?
If the main Chinese enemy is war and the precedence of Chinese abroad policy is to keep peace and to date conditions for the global exchange of goods and services, then Beijing will have no choice but to conclude deal from the United States. Even at the expense of Russia. What I wrote many times, for the Chinese, all next year in which they gain on export and can import energy resources – while building RES – is simply a victory. China's economy is so heavy dependent on conditions and external actors that the Chinese must do everything possible to guarantee its conditions for improvement or even to keep the state of affairs, and to gain the time to build independency in the form of an interior market. This means that Russia's destiny and the Chinese-Russian relations are falling to the background.
Therefore, in the Chinese conflict to keep peace, Russia can yet become the first and top victim. The 12 points published by the Chinese MFA as well as Xi's visit to Moscow are not a declaration of lasting relationship for good and bad. They are a informing thatWhat's good between Moscow and Beijing can end due to the fact that these relationships have a price. If there is simply a value increase to unacceptable levels for China, then Beijing will leave the table. The Chinese are not going to pay for their war. Putin's War. Xi Jinping is ready to take advantage of Putin's current hard situation, and may besides hazard trying to get something from Americans by giving them a second – Korean – front. At the end of the day – possibly after very sharp negotiations and aggressive upsizing the stakes – the Beijing authorities will do anything to keep the conditions for the improvement of the Chinese economy.
In my opinion, the Chinese went to Moscow in the hope that they could accomplish the goal at the least cost. However, if the plan to bring about the "remise" failed, they would want to milk the Russian cattle to the ground. At the same time, erstwhile Putin will no longer be able to compensate for the Chinese costs of the prolonged conflict, the Chinese will be forced to enter into an agreement with the United States. Especially if the Americans demonstrated readiness to face both rivals, and at the same time threatened with serious retortions aimed at the People's Republic of China.
What we observed in Moscow was not the beginning of a large alliance and a fresh era associated with the emergence of the fresh east bloc. Rather, this should be interpreted as a beautiful theatre, behind the scenes, which is sanctioned by sanctions and Putin's arrest warrant appeases Xi Jinping in exchange for the temporary tolerance of Russian excesses.
Krzysztof Wojchal
Geopolitics, politics, economy, law, taxes – blog
