Since the beginning of this year, there has been considerable variation in Chinese abroad trade. It's growth and decline. However, the overall consequence for the period from early January to late April 2024 indicates affirmative dynamics of abroad trade in China.
After a March breath, to the surprise of many analysts, April results are much better than expected.
China's abroad trade (USD) increased by 4.4% year-on-year (r/y). Of which:
- exports increased by 1.5% y/y,
- imports increased by 8.4% y/y.
On the basis of RMB, the volume of abroad trade in China increased by 8.0% y/y, i.e.
- exports by 5.1%,
- imports by 12.2% y/y
Differences in conversions result, among others, from exchange rate differences.
A clear affirmative trend can be noted in the summary of the period of January-April 2024.
Foreign trade in this period (USD) increased by 2.2% y/y:
- exports by 1.5% y/y,
- imports by 3.2% y/y
These are not two-digit increases, which was a standard only a fewer years ago, but at the minute we are dealing with a different situation of the Chinese and global economy.
Between the beginning of January and the end of April this year there was an increase in abroad trade turnover with the largest trading partner of the PRC, the countries of Southeast Asia (ASEAN). That's an 8.5% increase.
Trade with the second largest trading partner, the European Union, saw a decrease in turnover of 1.8% y/y. This is the 4th consecutive period of China's falling EU turnover.
With the 3rd trading partner, the United States, turnover increased by 1.1% y/y during this period, with Chinese imports from the USA decreasing by 2.5% y/y.
There is already a clear change in the directions of Chinese abroad trade. The share of trade with the European Union and the United States in favour of ASEAN, Asia, the Bilish East, Latin America and Africa is decreasing.
They keep their advanced rate of improvement of China's trade turnover with Russia. From January to April increased by 7.9% y/y, including
- exports by 1.0% y/y,
- imports by 13.8% (mainly natural materials).
Other characteristics of Chinese abroad trade do not change, specified as:
the dominance of private companies in the implementation of trade – they account for 54.6% of the total;
59.2% of all exports are highly processed goods (growth by 6.9% y/y) – electromechanical products, machines, equipment and energy products, electronics, cars (increase by 24.9%, integrated circuits increase by 23.5%);
In import, as always, the natural materials dominate. From January to April, the most of them were coal, natural gas, iron ore, oil and copper. Import of soya beans is decreasing.
It is all indications that abroad trade will keep the position of 1 of the drivers of China's economy in the long term.
Source:
- customs.gov.cn;
- wallstreetcn.com;
- finance.eastmoney.com;
- c.cn;
- baijiahao.baidu.com;
Author: 梁安基 Andrzej Z. Liang, 上海 Shanghai, 中国 China
Email: [email protected]
Editorial: Leszek B.
Email: [email protected]
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