A panorama of Khartoum, the capital of SudanSource: Screenshot, YouTube
As of 15 April, the armed clashes between the Sudanese army and the Paramilitary fast Support Forces pushed 1 of Africa's largest countries into chaos. Thousands of people must have left their homes. The full nation had lost hope of improving the destiny of the country’s coups and rebellions. Why did Sudan plunge into civilian war a fewer years after the fall of 1 of the most violent dictatorships in Africa? What do the parties to the dispute pursue? Is there inactive hope for peace?
Sudan is simply a country with a past of political turmoil. Since gaining independency from Britain and Egypt in 1956, Sudan has been dominated by unstable civilian governments and military juntas. Since the 1989 coup d'état, Sudan was ruled by Umar al-Bashir, accused by the global Criminal Court in The Hague of crimes against humanity, a supporter of Islamism. In the 1990s he hosted his country Osama bin Laden, leader of Al-Qaeda. The al-Bashir government was infamous for the persecution of political opponents, the establishment of draconian Sharia law and the conduct of policies of persecution and cultural cleansing against the people of Darfur, the western region of Sudan, in which a rebellion broke out in 2003.
The multi-annual wars and secession of natural resources-rich South Sudan in 2011 shook the regime, and the worsening economical problems proved impossible to overcome in the face of global isolation. Al-Bashir began to fear the coup, so he created in 2013 from militants fighting on the side of the government in Darfur a paramilitary organization called the fast Support Force (RSF), which was under direct control of the dictator and was better armed than the army.
At the end of 2018, mass protests against al-Bashir governments began in Sudan, due to the fatigue of society's economical crisis and the desire for democratic reforms. Despite many repressions, the protests continued for months until on 11 April 2019 al-Bashir was overthrown in a coup by an army allied with the RSF. The defiants formed a temporary government and under force of protests they took up cooperation with the opposition. The head of government was the civilian Abdallah Hamdok, an economist associated with the democratic opposition, and the head of state as president of the Provisional Sovereign Council was General Abd al-Fattah al-Burhan, the leader of the coup.
The fresh authorities began negotiations with rebel groups to bring peace to the country. Pro-democratic changes in law were proposed. However, economical problems, the Covid-19 pandemic and conflicts between civilians and military destabilised the temporary government. On October 25, 2021, the army carried out another coup, resulting in Hamdok being temporarily put under home arrest, and the influence of civilian political forces on the situation in the country was minimized.
Since the second coup, the military and RSF have had a decisive influence on Sudan's policies. At the same time, global force on the government began to emergence to outline the way back to civilian rule. Inside the junta, disputes began. The issue of the inclusion of the RSF in the army proved to be an inflammatory point. Al-Burhan sought to have the paramilitary militia included in the army long before the surrender of power to civilians, while General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the commander of the RSF, wanted to extend the process of integrating his organization with the army for a period of 10 years.
Abd al-Fattah al-Burhan, president of the Provisional Sovereign BoardSource: Screenshot, YouTube
Dagalo began to represent himself as an oppositionist inside the junta, declaring publically his desire to return rapidly to civilian regulation and strengthening contacts with erstwhile rebel groups. Meanwhile, al-Burhan eased the course towards Islamist supporters of erstwhile president al-Bashir in order to gain their support. The rivalry of the 2 generals began to take on an global character as al-Burhan began intensifying diplomatic relations with Egypt and Dagalo established contacts with the United arabian Emirates and Wagner Group.
After months of tension, the war yet broke out. On April 15, Dagalo's faithful forces launched a coup against al-Burhan and generals from the regular army. However, RSF was incapable to master the capital Khartoum due to military dominance of aviation in the air. From that day on, there are fights in many regions of Sudan, and the truces negotiated by the neighbouring countries are regularly broken.
The situation of the people of Darfur, which is simply a bastion of the RSF, is peculiarly tragic. Thousands of refugees crossed the border with Chad in search of shelter. On the streets of Khartoum, there are fights against the usage of aviation. Both sides of the conflict have support from abroad. The RSF accuses the army of working closely with Egypt. Meanwhile, Dagalo and his supporters are to be secretly supported by Wagner Group, the United arabian Emirates and Marshal Halifa Chaftara of Libya.
There's no indication that the fighting parties are willing to settle. Al-Burhan rejected the anticipation of negotiating with Dagalo. The RSF reiterates its attempts to control the capital. Meanwhile, more and more regional and global players can engage in conflict. Egypt needs Sudan as an ally in its dispute with Ethiopia over its construction of a large dam on the Nile. Saudi Arabia has invested considerable resources in the acquisition of agricultural land in Sudan, which was intended to supply it with a steady supply of agricultural products. Wagner Group and the Russian government are suspected by Western countries of wanting to take control of Sudanese gold mines. All these players have an interest in pushing their interests through the support of 1 of the parties to the conflict. If there is no permanent ceasefire soon, Sudan can divide Syria's fate.
Oskar KMAK
