Grzegorz Braun will run for president of Poland. According to Prof. Mirosław Piotrowski and usually well-informed writer Piotr Szlachtowicz. I'm not amazed by the information, for a good fewer months now, that Braun is likely to submit his candidacy.
It's not the same as taking off. He can start a campaign, show his strength and then back off. After his resignation, support Sławomir Mentzen and the Confederate task more broadly, but completely under different conditions than now. It may besides neglect to confirm these "accidental" leaks and play with the Confederate authorities for real privileges for its environment and adjust the direction of the grouping towards closer to its worldview.
However, if it did, I do not see a large failure to the Confederation. Grzegorz Braun will collect the voices of the most enduring Ukrainian-sceptic electorate, firefighting, consistently anti-EU and those opposition activists of the PRL period who did not get on the stools. Today, in my opinion, most of this extremist electorate of warm-hearted and head patriots is not with the Confederation, but with Law and Justice (PiS).
Sceptical in fresh years towards the Insurction Tradition Braun has a chance to manage this electorate – from the cleaning of curses, radicals from Solidarity Fighting and KPN, a large part of the b. Kamrat movement, to followers of the explanation of Smolenian murder. In the second aspect it would be a certain return to roots.
Thus Mentzen will decision to the center, or more specifically the center will decision more to the right. Mentzen for the writer's voter will become attractive. In it he will see an authentic right-wing man, but different from the artificially created Karol Nawrocki (whose seat is more and more rerealized Jarosław Kaczyński) or extremist and associated with the folk patriotism of Grzegorz Braun. Sławomir Mentzen will have the chance to make a Polish version of Trumpism like this Hungarian Viktor Orbán.
The success of the head of the Confederation of the Polish Crown is that he moved the Overton window in the subject of war in Ukraine. And in the course of the presidential campaign, he'll decision them further. The remainder of the candidates will gotta swallow a heavy-fat Kiev frog, which will most likely become the main subject of the election campaign. This is the end of the rhetoric about the servants of the Ukrainian people. At least in words. This will besides force Nawrocki to any kind of bracing, and Trzaskowski to study. This is where you'll see a shift. The holovnia will stay a Ukrainian candidate burying remnants of PSL subjectivity, collecting post-corrosive electorate. For the candidates of the alleged left, it does not substance much. due to the fact that these candidates don't substance much. Sławomir Mentzen will stay in his political position. And that could be his success.
For Mentzen and Bosaka, a possible start for Braun is not a tragedy. But they can't admit it, so they're going to gotta do a small theatrical polarity. Grzegorz Braun's MPs in the future can play the function of the Confederation as Solidarna (Soverernna) Poland at the Law and Justice. Have any autonomy, while at the same time supporting the main group on crucial issues.
Łukasz Jastrzębski
