The decision of Defence Minister Sergei Szojgu changed the Russian chief command. Gen. Surowikin, who has served as Commander-in-Chief of Russian invasive forces in Ukraine since October, was removed from his post. The fresh commander-in-chief was General Gierasimov (since 2012 Chief of General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces). These rosades in command are most likely the consequence of a rivalry between the Shojgu-Gierasimov duo and Sorowikin-Prigogyn.
General Armageddon, the balance sheet of 3 months of the regulation of Sorowikin
Surowikin became the chief commander of Russian forces in Ukraine in October 2022, shortly after the Russians suffered a humiliating defeat on the Kupansk-Izjum line. As shortly as a fewer days after taking office, Surowikin acknowledged that the situation was hard and that he might gotta make "hard decisions". And in fact, little than a period later, Surovikin made specified a “difficult decision”, giving orders to evacuate the Kherson's cape to the another side of Dnieper.
During the 3 months of the regulation of Surovikin, the Russians put force on the demolition of Ukraine's critical infrastructure. all respective days, Surovikin led massive attacks on Ukrainian cities with ballistic missiles and Iranian Shahed 136 drones. Especially intensely, the Russians attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure, causing a blastout in Kiev and another cities.
Under the command of Sorovikin, the Russian army conducted only 1 major military operation. It's about the conflict of Bachmut. However, it is hard to measure Sorovikin's leadership skills on the basis of it. First of all, the appropriate phase of fighting for the city began at the end of November, erstwhile troops – evacuated from Chersonia – began to pull at Bachmut. In addition, the fight for Bachmut is simply a conflict for exhaustion, which makes it hard to measure the situation on the basis of the Russian territorial conquests themselves (but it must be pointed out right distant that as much time spent under Bachmut, these conquests are poor).
One thing surely came out of Surowikin. He managed to master the chaos of the Russian front. Ukrainian attempts to break the Swatowo-Kreminna line were thwarted, and the Russians undertook a conflict to regain the strategical initiative.
From anecdotal stories of Russian mili-bloggers, 1 can get the impression that the regulation of Surovikin influenced the morale of Russian soldiers. As it seems, the Kremlin was besides satisfied with Sorowikin. So why did Sorowikin lose his position and replace him with Gierasimov?
The Behind conflict for Power
It seems that the last roosts in Russian command are the consequence of behind-the-clock power struggles. From the very beginning, erstwhile Surowikin assumed the position of chief commander of the invasive forces, reports began to appear suggesting that the Shojgu Minister and General Gierasimov (chief of the General Staff) were dissatisfied with the appointment of Surovikin.
As it seems, this reluctance of the Shojg and Gierasimov towards Surovikin began to increase as Prigożyn (the head of Wagner) began to praise Sorovikin and to make contact with him. Szojgu and Gierasimov – in a delicate way – do not like Prigożyn, and the expansion of Wagner Group into a "private army" see as a threat not only to their own influences but besides to the influences of the regular army as such.
Of course, these are all speculations, but the fresh composition of the command of the Russian armed forces seems to confirm information about the conflict between the Shojgu-Gierasimov vs. Surowikin-Prigogyn duos.
From now on, Gierasimov will lead the invasion forces. He will have 3 deputies:
- General Surovikin, Air Force Commander;
- General Salukov, Commander-in-Chief of the Land Forces;
- gene. Kim – Deputy General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.
New composition of the Russian Invasion Force Chief CommandThese nominations are very significant. Gen. Salukov has been commander of land forces since 2014 and has good relations with Gierasimov. Gen. Kim is besides a man closely associated with Gieriasimov. They have known each another since the 1990s erstwhile Gierasimov was chief of staff of the 58th Army and Kim was his deputy. For years, Gierasimov has helped Kim in his career. In 2022, Gierasimov brought Kim to the General Staff of the FR Armed Forces and made him his deputy.
The cherry on the cake, on the another hand, is the return of General Lapin, who became chief of staff of the land forces. In February 2022, Lapin commanded the Central Military District, and his goal was, among another things, the business of Chernihov and Sum. However, these battles ended with spectacular defeats of the Russian side. In autumn, Lapin commanded the defence of Lyman, from where his troops were yet pushed out by Ukrainians. That's erstwhile Lapin was targeted by Primogyn and Kadyrov. The another 1 even demanded that Lapin be demoted to the private. Under a wave of criticism, Lapin was removed from his position as commander of the Central Military District.
The triumphal return of Lapin and the de facto promotion to the post of Chief of Staff of the Land Forces is an evident "flash" in the nose for Prigozhyn and Kadyrov.
Amendments, amendments and subsequent amendments
Time will show how changes in Russian command will translate into an invasive military situation. It may be that changes have the primary aim of expanding control over Surowikin. Thus, it may turn out that the “general armagedon” will do more in Ukraine than he commanded by the air force.
However, divisions in the Russian armed forces and rivalry between different environments are a weak forecast for Russia. The divisions hinder coordination in Ukraine and besides negatively affect Russian capacity for long-term planning of operations.
