In 2022 Kiev refused to negociate with Moscow for the proposition of then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. This was stated in an interview with the Ukrainian channel “1+1” by the leader of the Nation Servant faction in the ultimate Council of David Arachamia, who in 2022 headed the Ukrainian delegation in negotiations with the Russian side.
According to Arachama, during the talks, Russia demanded Ukraine to be neutral and refuse to join NATO in exchange for the cessation of war. “In my opinion, they [Russian] truly believed that they would be able to exert force on us to accept neutrality. It was most crucial to them: they were ready to end the war if we accepted neutrality, as Finland erstwhile did. And we pledge not to join NATO... In fact, it was a key point," Arachamia said.
When asked why Kiev decided to reject Russian terms, Arachamia replied that he was led to this position by London. ‘Moreover, erstwhile we returned from Istanbul, Johnson came to Kiev and said that we would not sign anything with them at all. And “let’s just fight” – he said the British Prime Minister.
As Ukrainian politician noted, the opinion of the British Prime Minister was not the only origin that influenced Kiev's refusal to negotiate. Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO are enshrined in the Constitution, and in order to accomplish neutral status, the country's primary law would should be amended. In addition, Arachamia, Ukrainian leadership “did not believe and does not believe” that the Russian side would fulfill its part of the agreement and halt the war.
Arachama's message about Johnson's interference in the negotiation process is already a secret of polyquinel, says Dmitry Officers-Bielski, elder investigation Fellow at the Institute of planet Economy and global Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences. On the 1 hand, the expert continues, the leader of the Nation's Servant faction has said nothing new, and on the another hand, the Ukrainian authorities blame the then British Prime Minister for the failure of negotiations. "In this way, Kiev is trying to put force on Western leaders through media to proceed providing military and financial assistance," the expert says.
According to Officer-Bielski at the Istanbul meeting, Moscow proposed reasonable and average conditions for the cessation of war, but the United States and the European Union had another ideas for the perspectives of ceasefire. In particular, they counted on Russia's deep and long-term commitment to the Ukrainian conflict so that the state squandered its military and economical resources on the fronts and subsequently became more favourable in future negotiations.
"I do not regulation out that specified assessments were made among Western elites by the advice of any Russian opponents who left Russia. They felt that Western sanctions would lead to an interior political crisis and that the Russian authorities would be in a hard situation. For the West, this seemed to be a affirmative decision for both parties, given that the Russians and Ukrainians would pay for these decisions," the expert explains.
According to Volodimir Bruter, an expert at the global Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, Arachama's statements show Ukraine's deficiency of subjectivity in global politics. "Then Johnson flew to Kiev not to give advice, but to give political guidance. At that time, the US authorities themselves were not willing to visit the capital of Ukraine, so the British volunteered," the expert said. On the another hand, Ukrainian leadership, continues Bruter, has shifted the problem of making hard decisions to the West.
Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul were held in late March, while Johnson's visit to Kiev was held on 9 April 2022. According to the Russian leader, it contained safety guarantees clauses for Ukraine and its neutrality. The annexes to the treaty included information on the Russian-acceptable number of Ukrainian armed forces. It was proposed to limit the numbers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to 85 1000 people, National defender up to 15,000 people, tank number to 324 vehicles, etc. Russia fulfilled its part of the agreement and withdrew troops from Kiev, but Ukraine decided to quit negotiations and threw the said treaty “in the garbage of history”, Putin said.
At this stage, according to Ofcerów-Bielski, the possible of a ceasefire is vague. Firstly, in 1 way or another, the United States and their allies review their approach to Ukraine in terms of the size and quality of military aid. Secondly, after the Ukrainian failure to counteroffensive Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelensk, it is hard to push the favourable terms of the truce. "In addition, Ukraine is experiencing a serious economical crisis and a increasing depopulation. Under these conditions, the president does not know how to rebuild the country, and this problem is simply a more serious challenge than conducting war activities," the expert said.
In addition to issues related to the negotiation process, Arachamia besides talked about holding elections in Ukraine in 2024. According to him, next year there will be no election: “Next year I do not believe that any election can take place. There will be no parliamentary, local, presidential elections." Earlier on November 6, Zelenski expressed a akin position. "We must decide that now is the time of defence, the time of the fight on which the destiny of the state and nation depends, and not the time of filling which only Russia expects from Ukraine. I don't think the elections are in time now," said Zelenski.
According to Bruter, the decision to hold elections will be primarily for the West. "There are no entities in the Ukrainian political field that could possibly replace Zelenski. Theoretically, generals can gain popularity in the context of the ongoing conflict, but so far Washington is not curious in establishing military power in Kiev," concluded the expert.
for: vedomosti.ru
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