Ukrainian grain exports fell by 76% in August year after Russian attacks, which have blocked traffic to ports on the Black Sea for over 3 weeks. alternate routes will not take over the full cargo. This will consequence in force on food prices, warehouses and safety of supply, including in Europe.
Black Sea closed for ships
Commercial vessels have not entered Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea for more than 3 weeks. According to EFE, it was these terminals that usually operated around 90% of the country's exports. In the first 12 days of August Ukraine exported 590 1000 tonnes of grain, or about 30 percent of the volume needed.
The direct origin is Russian strikes at ports and shipping. In July 67 attacks on port facilities were reported, and Russian strikes at the ports of Odski Oblast have disabled about 1 3rd of Ukrainian export capacity for grain. That's not the side cost of war. The impact on food transport has an economical and strategical dimension.
Odessa ports were already under Russian fire, but the current magnitude of the disturbance has come to the top of the period after the harvest. Cereals stay in the country, prices paid to producers fall and retention and transport costs increase. Farmers request funds to repay loans and further sowing.
Replacement routes are not enough
Kiev is trying to transfer cargo to railways, roads and Danube ports. The Minister of Agriculture Taras Wysocki said that the railways and ports on the Danube presently service about 45% of agricultural exports and road transport the remaining 10%. However, this division describes a much smaller stream of goods than before the blockade.
According to Paweł Kowal, director-general of the Ukrainian Agricultural Confederation, the country should export around 65 million tonnes of agricultural products per year, or nearly 6 million tonnes per month. Even a fast increase in the capacity of alternate routes will cover only 45-50 percent of the needs. The announcement of doubling transit through Poland shows where the next force may appear.
For Poland, it has 2 dimensions. The first is safety of supply and prices in global markets. The second is to defend its own agriculture against the chaotic shift of surpluses into the Union market. Transit aid is justified, but the Polish government must guarantee the tightness of corridors, quality control and the interest of national producers. Solidarity must not mean passing the cost of war on to the Polish countryside.
Russia besides loses export capacity
The disturbances besides included Russian routes. Attacks on terminals in Noworosyjsk and restrictions on shipping in the Azov Sea weakened the main channel of Russian grain exports. S&P Global estimates that between 1.7 and 2.1 million tonnes of Russian exports planned for July and August were at risk.
Russia and Ukraine were liable for a full of 27.3% of planet wheat exports during the 2025/2026 season. This explains why extending the blockade won't be a local problem. Proposal for a truce for civilian vessels in the Black Sea is based on a very circumstantial account: without safe shipping, the losses are borne by producers, carriers and recipients of food on respective continents.
Polish business requires control and realism
Europe must not bring answers to the beginning of borders for each transport. Protected sea corridors, effective infrastructure defence and strict settlement of land transit are needed. Poland has the right to require that Ukrainian cereals go to the mark audience, alternatively of destabilising our market.
Russian attacks show how rapidly the war on ports is turning into an emphasis on bread prices and food security. The defence of freedom of navigation is in Poland's interest. The defence of Polish farmers is equally strong. A country that neglects any of these matters will put citizens on account written outside our borders.
Source: OKO.press, EFE, S&P Global
Source: OKO.press
