The German tabloid “Bild” published an article analysing the first circular of presidential elections in Poland, held on 18 May. In a material entitled ‘Stichwahl am 1. Juni: In Polen geht es jetzt um alles’ ("Second circular 1 June: Now Poland is all about everything"), the diary not only describes the political situation over the Vistula River, but besides shows how much this election can affect Polish-German relations and the overall dynamics in the European Union.
Thirteen candidates competed in the election, but no of them exceeded the 50% threshold required to win in the first round. This means that on 1 June there will be a bonus between 2 candidates with highly different visions of Poland:
- Rafał Trzaskowski (Civil Coalition) – president of Warsaw, a deliberal self-government supported by Donald Tusk's government, obtained 30.8% of the votes.
- Karol Nawrocki – historian, erstwhile head of the Institute of National Memory, candidate supported by Law and Justice (PiS), won 29.1% of the vote.
The turnout reached awesome 69%, which shows the immense social commitment and advanced stakes that many Poles see in this election.
"Bild" emphasises that these are not average presidential elections. This is the minute erstwhile Poles choose not only the head of the state, but besides the direction in which they want to make their democracy, institutions and global relations.
Trzaskowski's triumph would mean "green light" for the Tusk government to carry out deep reforms blocked by president Andrzej Duda – from the sanctioning of the judiciary and liberalisation of abortion law, to the amendment of the media law and the separation of the Church from the state.
In turn, Nawrocki's election announces the continuation of the confrontational policy towards Brussels and Berlin, as well as the "defence of conventional values" and strong support for the conservative agenda of the Law and Justice.
German politicians, as quoted by “Bild”, express mixed feelings. On the 1 hand – as an anonymous authoritative from the Ministry of abroad Affairs quoted in the article – "Europe needs a unchangeable Poland that will not block key EU decisions". On the another hand, there is no deficiency of anxiety in Berlin – mainly due to Nawrocki's possible win.
Nawrocki is known for his harsh rhetoric towards Germany. Many times he publically demanded war reparations, which he estimated at EUR 1.5 trillion. In the German Parliament, these demands are considered to be political provocation, which could poison bilateral relations and harm cooperation in areas specified as security, energy and infrastructure.
The article in “Bilda” points out that these elections are observed with large interest not only in Berlin but besides in Brussels. High-ranking officials of the European Commission hope to win a candidate who will "open Poland to constructive dialog within the community".
German opposition politicians besides comment on the election with expanding intensity. Green Leader of the Bundestag, Anton Hofreiter, says: “This could be the beginning of a fresh European spring – if Poles choose Trzaskovsky, we will see fresh air in the politics of central Europe."
The polls published after the first circular indicate the advantage of Trzaskowski – 46% versus 42% for Nawrocki. But experts warn: the situation can change quickly. It will be crucial to mobilise voters who supported independent candidates and “outside” parties. There are besides Polish voices in the game, especially in Germany, large Britain and the USA, where there is simply a fight for narrative. Both staffs have already sent their emissaries there, hoping for additional votes from abroad.
The “Bild” article does not beat around the bush – it is an election about everything. Not only the political future of Poland is at stake, but besides the balance in European relations. For Germany, these choices mean a possible reset – or an increase in tension. For Poles – a choice between integration and isolation, between 21st century Europe and national identity policy.
We will learn the final consequence on 1 June, but it is clear now: the eyes of Europe and Germany are turned on Warsaw.
