Between democracy and authoritarianism. Will Serbia join the EU?

SNS governments in Serbia have been moving for over 12 years. // unsplash.com, photograph by Ljubomir Zarkovic

Since 2012, erstwhile the Serbian Progressive organization (SNS) headed by Alexander Vučici took over in Serbia, this Balkan country has gradually moved down any ranking of democracy. Although this country has been a candidate for the European Union for 10 years, fresh events have made it increasingly distant from the target. The balance between the West and the East is taking the another direction in Serbia so far.

The last elections in December 2023 were already the 4th in the 10 years that were held before the planned deadline. The goal of the current president Vučic's squad was to strengthen itself again in the position of Hegemon of the Serbian political scene. Although Vučić had previously secured a second word in Novi Dvora a year and a half earlier, his organization lost respective twelve seats in the 2020 National Assembly.

Elections in the shadow of protests

An early election was scheduled for December 17, 2023 with local elections in 66 cities and regions. By that time, Serbia had many protests against the power of that time. The V-Dem Institute dealing with the quality of democracy in individual countries rated Serbia as an electoral autocracy. Freedom home besides referred negatively to Serbian government policy:

“The authorities in Serbia have undermined political rights and civilian liberties, put force on independent media, opposition and civilian society organisations,” we read on their website. Also, the inflamed conflict on the border with Kosovo has surely not helped to stabilise the situation in the country. respective incidents occurred in the border area in the past year. In May, Serbian troops were put on alert following the illegal opinion of the Serbs of the Kosovo local elections. In September there was a shooting at the border, in which respective Kosovo police officers lost their lives. The selection preparations were so tense. The main rival of the SNS in the upcoming election was the Pro-European Coalition Against force following tragic May events in 1 of the Belgrade schools erstwhile a 13-year-old student killed 10 people. At the time, the political conflict grew, erstwhile then the Minister of Education, Branko Ružić, stated in his message that "the Internet, computer games and all another alleged Western values are to blame for these events".

Painful Failure

According to the polls, the organization of the incumbent president could number from 38% to 45%. However, the closer the elections were, the worse the SNS rankings were, and the protests intensified. Nevertheless, the situation for the ruling group seemed safe due to the fact that it could always number on the support of the coalition of the erstwhile Prime Minister of Serbia, Ivica Dačic, which included the Socialist organization of Serbia, the United Serbia and the Greens. Eventually, the consequence of the Serbian Progressive organization exceeded the boldest expectations. The populists gained as much as 48% of support, which translated into 128 seats, which was 8 more than after the 2022 election. Second place was the opposition coalition Serbia Against force with a 24% score (65 mandates). The co-director of SPS noted little than 7% of the support (18 mandates), which despite a good consequence of the opposition consolidated the power of the current rulers. The results of the local elections proved peculiarly painful for the opposition. The ruling SNS prevailed in all 66 regions, even in the capital of the country, Belgrade, where the opposition had a real chance to regain power. Eventually, SNS triumphed there at 39:34.

As part of the OSCE surveillance mission in Europe to analyse the correct conduct of elections, a preliminary election study was prepared. We can read about many irregularities on the day of the vote. This is about exerting force on public sector workers, or a media transmission favouring power. A number of procedural errors have besides been highlighted: inconsistent action erstwhile counting votes, deficiency of verification of identity in polling stations, or bringing government organization supporters from neighbouring countries to appropriate polling venues. The election was besides watched by the local CRTA organization, which stated that the above irregularities could have affected the result of the election.

"We received a signal from Russia"

Just after the elections across Serbia, in peculiar Belgrade, many thousands of demonstrations broke out against the methods adopted during the election. The opposition demanded the re-election, and 2 of its activists began a hunger strike. There were clashes with police, where 30 police officers were injured. The demonstrators tried to climb into the town hall, utilized teardrop gas. Prime Minister of Serbia, Ana Brnabić, quoted by the Ukrainian fact portal, said that Russian services provided Serbian information about possible post-election incidents.

– We had information from the service that warned us about it. First of all, the information was provided to us by the Russian peculiar services, but [representatives of Western countries – ed.] accused us of spreading nonsense and misinformation – said Brnobić. She continued to accuse the opposition of a brutal effort to destabilise the state. These statements will surely cool relations with the EU and can push the balance of Serbia's East-West relations in the first direction.

All indications are that the Serbian populist SNS policy will continue. Relations with the EU will benefit as much as possible with minimal losses, while having a strong romanticist relation with countries with limited democracy, Hungary, Russia or China. If this course continues, Serbia's accession to the EU will gradually go away.

Mr Filip STACHOWIC