A ruble, Russian, Ukrainian and Polish actions were fired on the news of the alliances for peace talks. Do markets discount the end of war and return to old business? fresh area for years? How about a ceasefire before we start again?
I
At first, a brief summary of my worldview, which translates into an emotional relationship:
It cannot be in the long word parallel independent Poland and the Russian Empire. The Empire must destruct or subdue Poland. Neither can an independent Ukraine and the Russian Empire be at the same time. The independent Slavic and Baltic states to the border with Germany must be spread from inside to full submission. And if past gives an opportunity, their elites cut into a trunk and the peoples are full ruined.
The existence of countries that live better and, in addition to the ever-increasing well-being of citizens, is not possible within the framework of the common miru. And that's the difference between being the ass of Russia and being the ass of the West. Both Congressional and PRL were the 3rd world. And now we are a developed country, and only to ourselves can we resent that we put our full belly ahead of civilization's challenges.
Therefore, as a Pole, I always stand by those who argue the Empire. Not Russians or their culture, due to the fact that I like Russian books and I sometimes perceive to Russian bands. I like the harsh and minimalist approach of conscious Russians. Unfortunately, there are few. As a whole, the subjects of the Empire are a dilapidated, lifeless mass, ruthless to both conquered and their own fellows.
Reasons:
An evil and unjust strategy cannot last in the vicinity of a strategy that respects people's lives and freedoms more. specified a strategy must either change, either barrier off the wall, or break down. The change is impossible due to the fact that it would mean undermining the foundation on which Russia is built: the most ruthless and loyal come to power. erstwhile the Empire has been taken from its legal envelope, it is simply a mafia structure that does not include competence, but strength. You jump, you fly out the window.
So there is simply a simple choice: either you separate or you fall apart. That's why Russia has conquered neighboring lands since it exists. He needs to conquer everything that lies between strategical areas to base the border on mountains, large rivers, large civilizations, and then barrier off. This is the only way to build an autary and keep the population in check: possibly poor, but at least calmly, due to the fact that there is always any war at the borders.
II
The word bankruptcy does not mean the dissolution of the state. Russia went bankrupt in 1998, and already 10 years later it successfully invaded Georgia. Bankruptcy can have different forms:
- dependence on external sources of backing and planting politicians controlled by abroad powers
- hyperinflation, savings reset and building social structures again
So don't take my word for it, for example, erstwhile the ruble turns out to be welded to 1 cent, but it will become a virtual currency, due to the fact that the trade will be bartered for gold or oil or Russia will shift the army to the Chinese border and abruptly it will become Trump's ally. In both cases, this will mean the temporary failure of justice in Central Europe and the bankruptcy of the current regime.
The triumph of Russia, the denial of bankruptcy will be any script in which Russia signs any treaty in which the current government remains in power and gets the lands of Ukraine. How many treaties, global law or another "deales" mean, Russia shows all day. According to the logic of the system, it must break specified a treaty sooner or later in order to scope a strategical area and shield itself.
III
So many theories. As in practice, it looks like a fence. Don't take my word for it, just perceive to manufacture professionals:
1. Russia is on the rail. The railway network is connecting the Empire. And this network is demoting. 400,000 cars stand on the sidings, due to the fact that Western IT systems allowing management of more than a million warehouses have ceased to be supported. As a result, they had to control to an older strategy serving up to 700 1000 warehouses.
Expert Ryszard Piech - respective hours of lectures (if you do not have time, check the last two)
https://www.youtube.com/embed/bI3ucIXH_Y4&list=PLV2xtBKIK2xE9FLAo6WP6eeLFipXLOpcK
2. Oil and natural materials. Cut-off from Western oil extraction and refining technologies and demolition by Ukrainians of key components of refineries that Russia cannot reproduce itself.
Expert Tomasz Małachowski
https://www.youtube.com/embed/CACexAXfWWE
In another lectures, he explains how unskilled and overloaded mining destroys natural deposits.
3. Computer science. Russia builds its own net and technologically retreats to the 1990s. This affects the way the state and business are managed.
And here I can't find an interview with an IT safety expert. It appears to have been removed (?). Overall, it looked very weak:
- cutting off from libraries dependent on global Google/Amazon services, SAPs,
- the deficiency of specialists who would be able to make alternate systems, the opinion on local installations that can be easy hacked and very hard to detect (usually only after the attack, alternatively than while it can inactive be defended).
4. A financial ticking bomb. Galloping inflation, besides advanced interest rates on any activity another than arms production. The State prints currency by lending to commercial banks that gotta lend preferential loans to arms. As a result, the production of another goods is falling, the supply of money is increasing, which drives the spiral of inflation.
Here I urge the films Konstantin Samoilowa, which runs the Inside Russia channel. This is simply a Russian economist who:
- knows how to read data prepared by Russian institutions under explanation by Western institutions
- explains the terms known only in the Russian strategy with analogies to historical times
https://www.youtube.com/@INSIDERUSSIA
5. Degeneration of the army. The war consumed most of the combatable equipment. Contrary to propaganda, the invasion is mainly based on russian retention equipment. What was suitable for fighting and repair has already been used. Increasingly, soldiers commute to the front line with civilian cars, including age-old bullies. This year's hit proved to be the donkeys sent by the Ministry of defence to distribute supplies.
IV
The Russian Empire is imploding. That doesn't mean Russia's downfall. Russia wanted to play on an equal footing with America, the EU, China, but it proved besides weak. She wanted to build an Empire - an independent Russian mir - and from its borders establish rules of planet rule. I think it's improbable due to the fact that all 3 roads for Russia indicate 1 direction:
1. Change - you can't, due to the fact that it means the end of the Empire and the emergence of fresh state creations on its rubble. The option is best for people who inhabit the Empire's territory, which could be part of the West and rather mediocre for the others, due to the fact that they would all go to each other's throats in the fight for scheda.
2. defender itself - implemented, but with very weak results: the state is retreating civilizationally, poorness is growing, which will turn into discontent and the threat of revolution. If central power could suppress all resistance, a small better than North Korea would be created. Otherwise, the individual provinces will become independent of the affluent, hard - handed principalities. Real score: bankruptcy of the current system.
3. Fall apart - either the decay/disruption of the state (smallly probable), or the change of power and pivot to the west or submission to China. Result: bankruptcy through submission to an external empire.
Alternative scenario: Trump wins peace by surrendering: surrenders Ukraine and abolishes sanctions in exchange for promises. That would mean that:
- America is much weaker than we think,
- or America is ruled by finite losers or fantasyrs (casus Roosevelt) who think that the Russian Empire can be dealt with.
We observe and draw conclusions, this year will most likely give us an answer.
