Avdievka in the hands of Russians

What's next? Of course, the Russians should push for broken Ukrainian troops, but it will not benefit them much.

There are possible 3 forward-looking directions for action. From the South

1. From the Marinka-Nowomichajlovka area, consecutive east towards Zaporozh. The area is open, unurbanized, perfect for assault.

Benefits. The Russians shorten the front, go into operational space, conquer the area, push the epol distant from Crimea. The flaws. They must go beyond the fortification that stopped the summertime offensive of the Ukrainians. An assault with a exposed right wing. The request to organize a defence about 30-40 km north of current positions. About 100 km long.

2. Toreck. Counting about 10 towns, the Torecka agglomeration is about 120 1000 inhabitants, it is the same thorn in the d... for Gorlovka, as the Avdievka for Donetsk. Benefits Safer Gorlovka, depriving Ukrainians of the last coal mines. Problems. In November, the Russians conducted a combat reconnaissance under Ms. Leninski and withdrew. Awdiyevka, that's nothing compared to Toreck. Powerfully reinforced. 5 times the area. Approaching losses, possibly gigantic.
3. Jar's timer. 12 1000 people. The last bastion, in front of the last 3 major cities in Donbasa. (Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk, Sławansk). most likely reinforced like the Maginot line. Benefits and apparent problems.

How about this?

Is there a chance for a maneuvering war? In 1940 the Germans crossed the Maginot line, through Ardeny. There are no Ardens here. The area is somewhat folded, 2 tiny water obstacles. but that the Siewierna Donbas channel is the most critical component of the Torecka infrastructure. Who has a canal has water.

If I were Gierasimov, and I'm not.

From the area to the south of Bachmut, an approach westward in the direction of Ms. Bierestok. And... From the “pazur” to the north-west of Avdievka, north along the H-20 road, to Jabłoniwka. Benefits: Toreck's supply routes including water interrupt. His lap. Surrounding the reinforced areas. The creation of a threat to Constantinovka and the temporal Jaru. Force Ukrainians to counterattack and go beyond the strengthening of the Time and Constantinovka. And if they don't, they can sit there and wait for their turn. To the south of Konstantinovka is simply a reservoir that can cover the forehead as well as the left, or the right wing of attacking troops depending on whether the attack will go north or south of that reservoir. More risky, but promising is the northern direction. Condition? At least 8-12 rested brigades. What happens, we'll see.

Krzysztof Podgórski