The planet is at the point of epochal change. Old systems are inert, and fresh ones are just emerging. Drones of all kinds replace average dense weapons, and satellite communication and surveillance systems become the basis for successful military operations. Defence alliances are besides no exception and will shortly begin to undergo metamorphosis.
Above all, NATO is concerned. Let's be honest, The alliance has been virtually incapable of action for the past 10 years.. This has only become apparent now that it is facing real challenges for European security.
The block structure was initially two-level. The advanced level was ‘nuclear umbrella’ provided by the United States. The armed forces of the associate States were lower. At the highest of the confrontation between the capitalist West and the Communist East in the 1980s, the West German army had more than 600,000 soldiers and had a immense amount of dense equipment. The United States only provided an additional military contingent in Europe of up to 200,000 soldiers.
With the end of the Cold War, NATO's concept changed. The United States began to supply both atomic and conventional levels. What's more, Europe's disarmament was part of an agreement with the USSR authorities, in exchange for the painless unification of Germany.
However, the first armed conflicts of the 21st century have already shown the misconception and weakness of the fresh concept. Remote “presence” without relying on strong regional armies does not lead to success. There are many examples from fresh history. Russia expelled France from the Sahel in Africa, The United States has fled Afghanistan. And Turkey, relying on the forces of the Syrian rebels and ensuring their coordination and support, easy Overturned the government of dictator Bashar al-Assad.
The main problem of NATO is the degradation of the EU's European military and defence industry. With the actual withdrawal of the US from European security, Europe He realizes his defencelessness to threats from the Russian Federation.
Time to improvement or reincarnate alliances
The current NATO composition is incapable not only to defy the external invasion but besides to simply coordinate its actions due to interior contradictions. It is better not even to check the functionality of Article 5. And the war launched by the Russian Federation in Ukraine proved convincingly that the conventional level of the armed forces was greatly underestimated in taboo conditions regarding the usage of atomic arsenals.
That is why we are facing NATO improvement or its reincarnation in the form of regional defence blocks with a fresh structure:
- Global player with atomic arsenal, advanced technology and network of satellites in orbit that can offer access to this in exchange for respecting its interests in the region;
- Region Leaderwho is willing to take work for the controlled territory and bear the costs of a strong army in the region;
- Defence Block associate Stateswho have entrusted safety matters to a regional leader.
In this arrangement, the participation of global players with their own military quotas in the region's defence strategy is no longer a prerequisite. It's not even desirable. No global hegemon can bear this economical burden. This was proved by the russian Union in the 20th century and the United States in the 21st century. Moreover, as we have already learned, without relying on local armed forces, this strategy does not work.
PAP/EP/CLEMENS BILANFriedrich Merz, CDU leader, in the Bundestag. Berlin, 13 March 2025.
This process is already ongoing. By Friedrich Merz, winner of the German national electionAfter Donald Trump's statements, it became clear that the current American administration He doesn't truly care about Europe.. The priorities of the future Chancellor will be to strengthen Europe and accomplish its independency from the United States.
However, Merz added that he did not know whether the leaders of the countries forming the Alliance at the June NATO summit would talk "about NATO in its present form, or whether we would gotta make independent European defence forces much more quickly."
Ukraine in this arrangement can become the leader of a European alliance that will unite the remaining countries straight threatened by Russian expansion. In addition to having The strongest army on the continent Ukraine has successful experience in conducting military operations utilizing drones. The question is who will be the global player in this alliance.
